Why is Carson City losing population? (Las Vegas, Reno: transplants, how much, new house)

[TheTimidBlueBars]

Unlike almost every other city (not counting small towns) west of the Great Plains, Carson City's population has dipped by 1% (from 55,274 to 54,742) since 2010. This comes after several decades of rapid growth, and while I was visiting I didn't see an obvious reason people would be leaving. Much of the housing stock is new, it doesn't look dangerous, and I'd imagine there are a lot of government jobs since it's the state capital. Is the more narrowly defined Reno-Sparks area just starting to sap residents from Carson since it's sprawled out far enough to look like a more attractive location?

[Gatopescado]

Statistical error. Fuhgetaboudadah!

[NW Crow]

In general, population stagnation is becoming more the norm as country isn't growing as fast as in past. Not many places are growing faster than 1-2% per year. Have to draw in migration to grow much these days.


It does appear that the growth is going almost entirely into Washoe. A little into Douglas.


Compared to the previous decade, there aren't many new houses built in CC the last years. Not that many in Washoe either compared to recent past either but almost 4 times the new house rate as a share of total local housing stock as CC on top of the 9 times difference in market size.


I dunno the deeper reasons. I'd guess CC will pick up again at some point. But perhaps more as a Reno suburb than anything particular to itself. Unless some company makes a big play there. It could happen. Or more retiree boom.


Losing 1% isn't a big deal. 10% would be very serious.


If you really wanted to dig on the issue, I'd check growth rates of state jobs by city. I wouldn't be surprised if most of the growth is going into Las Vegas and Reno. Total numbers and growth rates.

[ChrisMT]

Carson City has very limited and aging housing. The city has limited land available for new homes, a growth cap in place and aggressive open space purchases plus alot of BLM owned open space that cannot be developed. Because of these factors the housing can be expensive and many young families are purchasing more affordable, newer homes in Dayton which is basically a suburb of Carson City. You can check how much growth Dayton (Lyon County) has seen to see how this area is really growing more than the statistics you are looking at. Also, Douglas County has grown tremendously, but with more wealthy transplants from California and with others with more equity to afford the more expensive housing in that beautiful area, again newer homes available there.
Back to Carson City.....growth cap set by law, recession scuttled many projects online in the past that are now starting up again and two factors that I personally love about Carson City...BLM owned open space that cannot be developed plus CC has aggressively placed a premium on open space development of trails and river/mountain habitat and historical areas of importance. Purchasing land that would otherwise have been developed with housing and allowing recreational development of trails or preservation of nature/history. This city has so many beautiful trails and open spaces to hike, mountain bike and enjoy all within city limits. Oh and CC consolidated the county limits into the city to save on government costs because the only city in the county was CC...... so much of the land is also national forest heading up to Lake Tahoe and again, limited or no development allowed. This city also has a 'skyline' or elevation type of limit on development in order to preserve the beauty of the mountains around it. The city placed a premium on enjoying the views of the mountains without the 'pollution' of housing developments or lighting etc on the 'skyline'.
I typed this very quickly and may have a few facts incorrect or incomplete, but this is the general gist of the 'shrinking population' statistics you mention. In reality this area is growing tremendously, but CC itself is a small county/city consolidation and so remains 'static' in population or perhaps even shows shrinking, but the general area is growing very quickly, just in neighboring counties that surround us. CC is the hub for many of these more rural type of developments that can be considered suburbs of CC. Look at how small the county is geographically and you will get the picture.

[ChrisMT]

I also wanted to mention that many folks bought new homes in Washoe/Reno during the years when Carson City did not have any developments in progress (recession). A huge number of state government employees commute into CC from Reno/Washoe and Dayton/Lyon as well as Minden/Douglas. Carson is a employment/shopping hub for the smaller communities and a commute for many government employees.