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Thread summary:

NV: Nevada jobs, job market, diversity, Vegas, Phoenix, the strip.

 
Old 05-19-2008, 12:59 PM
 
207 posts, read 724,396 times
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I am in the process of leaving CA and heading into NV and AZ {most probably NV first}. I left NY because I wanted to live in the west and started feeling out possibilities in LA, but have found that it is relatively a mess for the middleclass both in regard to the affordability factor as well as the quality of neighborhoods that would suffice based on the simplest of standards.

Naturally, I am sure neither NV or AZ will compare with the diversity offered in CA simply because of its size, however, from my research I am left with the feeling that NV has more "communities" {most probably because it is newly built in most places and there are probably strict zoning laws now in effect. Zoning pretty much seems to be a word not in the Californian vocabulary.}

I do not have any major concern in terms of job hunting {positions in Hospitality and office support I do not think would be hard to find}, but my concern is the crime and the uncertainty as to just how much of a comeback your housing market will rebound and thrive.

My personal opinion on housing is that a very aggressive marketing plan in NV went into effect and caught on big-time with investors first and then the average person just looking for a more economical place to be able to buy a house and live bought the hype and jumped into the frenzy that seemed to have no end to its promise for everyone.

And then we all know what happened. But, I am still left with the feeling that it became the hot-spot to live wtihout really being that ever, aside from retirement {and I am also not referring to 2nd homebuyers}.

The job market is not diverse. If tourism gets a hit with the economy, what do you do. It is a one-horse town in that sense, and it always was. This is why I am not as optimistic as others in NV rebounding in terms of a good choice to hang your hat.

I think AZ has the edge in this respect, but the crime issues remain equal, although I believe NV & AZ will crack-down more than CA. I do not see LA getting better ~ the spiral is pointed downhill. So having spent some time in LA, where the evening news seems like a constant preview of episodes of NYPD, I cannot imagine NV being any worse.

Am I wrong ??????
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Old 05-19-2008, 05:57 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 33,335,958 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamfollower View Post
I am in the process of leaving CA and heading into NV and AZ {most probably NV first}. I left NY because I wanted to live in the west and started feeling out possibilities in LA, but have found that it is relatively a mess for the middleclass both in regard to the affordability factor as well as the quality of neighborhoods that would suffice based on the simplest of standards.

Naturally, I am sure neither NV or AZ will compare with the diversity offered in CA simply because of its size, however, from my research I am left with the feeling that NV has more "communities" {most probably because it is newly built in most places and there are probably strict zoning laws now in effect. Zoning pretty much seems to be a word not in the Californian vocabulary.}
Phoenix and Las Vegas are both sprawling SW cities. Phoenix is bigger and better suited for those with technical orientations. Housing prices and values are similar. Phoenix is hotter and a little wetter which makes the hot worse in the summer. Phoenix is more pleasant in the winter.

Both communities have a liberterian background. Neither is a big fan of zoning though both do it in a reasonable way. Zoning in both is often referred to as "Californiafication".

Las Vegas is probably better for hospitality. Neither community pays well on a CA standard but both are much cheaper to live in.

Quote:
I do not have any major concern in terms of job hunting {positions in Hospitality and office support I do not think would be hard to find}, but my concern is the crime and the uncertainty as to just how much of a comeback your housing market will rebound and thrive.

My personal opinion on housing is that a very aggressive marketing plan in NV went into effect and caught on big-time with investors first and then the average person just looking for a more economical place to be able to buy a house and live bought the hype and jumped into the frenzy that seemed to have no end to its promise for everyone.
There are many theories. Mine is that it was mostly driven by too much equity available in CA. The CA equity was leveraged by many folk to buy places in Las Vegas and then Phoenix which were promptly flipped. Las Vegas was a very well behaved market prior to 2004. Gentle rise around inflation for many years. The CA market became impossibly expensive. The equity holders looked for other places...found Vegas and jumped in. They provided enough new volume to unbalance the Vegas market...a number of new builders like Pulte realized what was happening and upped price...everybody else got the message and off we went. Most of the California buyers got their money out and went on to Phoenix. The losers were the locals...either owner occupiers or investors. They were standing up when the music stopped.

The basics of the market are returning to normality. Basically a robust buyers market is growing at a very high rate and is simply consuming the REPOs. I expect we will see price increases in the next months. The REPOs will be with us for a long time. But they will sell reasonably quickly in this market.

Quote:
And then we all know what happened. But, I am still left with the feeling that it became the hot-spot to live wtihout really being that ever, aside from retirement {and I am also not referring to 2nd homebuyers}.

The job market is not diverse. If tourism gets a hit with the economy, what do you do. It is a one-horse town in that sense, and it always was. This is why I am not as optimistic as others in NV rebounding in terms of a good choice to hang your hat.

I think AZ has the edge in this respect, but the crime issues remain equal, although I believe NV & AZ will crack-down more than CA. I do not see LA getting better ~ the spiral is pointed downhill. So having spent some time in LA, where the evening news seems like a constant preview of episodes of NYPD, I cannot imagine NV being any worse.

Am I wrong ??????
Note that tourism is driven by the general state of the economy. If tourism is hit hard enough the Las Vegas is in bad trouble there is no place to go. Most places will be worse. Sure Las Vegas would retrench and things would tighten. But probably less than most places. If you had to pick the one horse for the one horse town it is hard to beat the gambling, hospitality, entertainment trio.

The housing market will return to some normal keel over the next couple of years. I don't know when we will see the tail of the boom die out but it will not be noticeable three or five years out. I trust that all are now gun shy enough that we won't easily go into boom mode but who knows...Pulte never saw a dollar opportunity they don't love.

I don't see any great differential between any of the cities of the SW. I think I like Las Vegas and Tucson better than Phoenix but not by much.
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Old 05-19-2008, 07:39 PM
 
207 posts, read 724,396 times
Reputation: 116
Olecapt ~ Your post was excellent and extremely informative. You mentioned the amount of Repos and that becomes the other side of the coin, with not too beneficial an effect on the matter, in my opinion.

I see it this way ~ now the stage is set once again for investors to come back in with Repos and lower prices. The big difference is that loans are not as easy to come by so the stampede effect will probably not take place again. However, again, these will be scooped up as investment properties that will probably show some profit when the market starts to inch up, but will LV again be the destination place for primary homeowners as it was at the height of the market. Did LV really progress in other areas, aside from hospitality, to warrant serious consideration as a primary residence for individuals/families that still require a sustainable wage. There will not be any fortunes made in a quick flip anymore, so we are talking about the good, old fashioned way of selecting a home base for your life for more than 1-2 years, and not depending on this investment to make you rich quick. For some reason, I cannot get it out of my mind that LV carries the most risk, which in an odd way adds to the excitement it markets.
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Old 05-19-2008, 08:27 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 33,335,958 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamfollower View Post
Olecapt ~ Your post was excellent and extremely informative. You mentioned the amount of Repos and that becomes the other side of the coin, with not too beneficial an effect on the matter, in my opinion.

I see it this way ~ now the stage is set once again for investors to come back in with Repos and lower prices. The big difference is that loans are not as easy to come by so the stampede effect will probably not take place again. However, again, these will be scooped up as investment properties that will probably show some profit when the market starts to inch up, but will LV again be the destination place for primary homeowners as it was at the height of the market. Did LV really progress in other areas, aside from hospitality, to warrant serious consideration as a primary residence for individuals/families that still require a sustainable wage. There will not be any fortunes made in a quick flip anymore, so we are talking about the good, old fashioned way of selecting a home base for your life for more than 1-2 years, and not depending on this investment to make you rich quick. For some reason, I cannot get it out of my mind that LV carries the most risk, which in an odd way adds to the excitement it markets.
Investors are clearly in the minority of the REPO buyers. The good ones are competitive and often sell well above list. The investors are active mostly at the very low end where positive cash flow from the standard rental transaction is possible. Even here they buy a minority of the homes. Note that a number of these processes give some priority to owner occupants.

Your view of LV as a get rich quick RE place is a delusion. Las Vegas for years and years prior to 2004 maintained a very orderly RE Market with very low speculation. I don't expect it to return to that same price line as I think there have been some structural changes. But I do expect a relatively sane and stable market moving perhaps a little faster than inflation in the long term. I consider that about the best kind of RE Market.

Las Vegas has a number of other initiatives working but I think remains highly dependent on the gambling/hospitality/entertainment trio. I am not sure that is a bad thing. The advantage is that the overall investment is so huge that no where else, at least in the US, can possibly compete. And that advantage will continue to grow as the investment continues. It is and will be America's Adult playground.

The more interesting question with Las Vegas is how to structure the end game. It cannot continue to grow without limit. It will be very hard to double again and growth past that is unlikely. So how is that to be mechinated in a way that smoothly shifts from a growth economy to a replacement one? Right now is an exceptional time to talk about growth as the residental housing industry is flat on its back. We need not allow it to grow back to its prior size...which could greatly assist the end game strategy.
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Old 05-20-2008, 09:14 AM
 
206 posts, read 642,848 times
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Ya know its funny.. just yesterday I went into town (Vegas) from Pahrump to do my monthly bulk shopping.. I noticed that all these new homes during this crisis.. are all full. Cars out front, blinds in windows.. people milling about.

All those developments on Blue Diamond, people are moving in there like mad.. I'm wondering how that could be possible with all this talk of a housing crisis crash.

I also maintain a slew of real estate websites.. and yes the market is moving again in California and Nevada.. slowly.. but its moving.. Perhaps the investors ARE coming back into the market and snapping up deals again.. who knows.
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Old 05-20-2008, 06:16 PM
 
207 posts, read 724,396 times
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So, if you had to invest in a primary residence home, and had to also consider employment opportunities, would it be Las Vegas or Phoenix?

And how much more boring is AZ in reality than NV?
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Old 05-20-2008, 07:21 PM
 
Location: Orange County, Calif.
92 posts, read 316,643 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamfollower View Post
So, if you had to invest in a primary residence home, and had to also consider employment opportunities, would it be Las Vegas or Phoenix?

And how much more boring is AZ in reality than NV?
I would like to know also.
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Old 05-20-2008, 07:52 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 33,335,958 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamfollower View Post
So, if you had to invest in a primary residence home, and had to also consider employment opportunities, would it be Las Vegas or Phoenix?

And how much more boring is AZ in reality than NV?
Depends on what you do...anything techie go to Phoenix. Hospitality oriented pick Vegas. Anything else toss a coin.

Phoenix is bigger warmer and older. May have a worse commute.

Both however are large suburban cities and the various suburban enclaves can easily be matched.

Las Vegas has the strip. Not actually that big a deal though. Locals seldom go there. Vegas is probably a little livelier. But not a lot of difference.

Vegas is closer to Southern Cal if you care.
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Old 05-25-2008, 03:40 PM
 
2,502 posts, read 8,034,307 times
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Most everything has already been said, but my input is...

1. Unless we see another Great Depression (which we likely never will), tourism isn't going to fail. As others have said, it's one of the sturdiest industries out there. 20 years from now, people may not be using PCs or cell phones anymore, but they will still be going on vacations. That said, as long as tourism continues to cushion the state with money, other industies will thrive as well.

2. Phoenix vs Vegas....well:

-Vegas has significantly less traffic and land area. You can drive from one end of the metro to the other in about a half hour...45 minutes at the most. The valley doesn't necessarily feel small, but traffic is very light once you get off the strip, so it's just convenient. There are lots of entertainment options available for occasions when you want to go out, but locals' lives are definitely not centered around the strip; we have other things to do as well. I'd also say that Vegas is a younger town...lots and lots of young residents (but also plenty of families). No state income tax. Summers aren't as intense.

-The Phoenix metro is nearly twice the size of the Vegas valley, both in population and land area. But this means that there's also more traffic and longer driving distances. There are some lively areas (like Tempe), but as a whole, the Phoenix metro isn't known for being super-excited or vibrant. You can find entertainment, but perhaps not as much as you would in other cities. Although still a desert, the climate is wetter, greener, and hotter. It's subjective, but some would say that the surroundings are prettier. There are numerous professional sports teams.

-Both get a lot hotter than CA. Both have lots of outdoor recreation options. Neither are very dense (although, I'd imagine that you're used to that).
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