NH real estate, how much lower will it go? (sales, foreclosures)

[movingover]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

1) NH has a more resilient economy compared to the other rural New England states. I predict home values will continue to fall this year, but begin to stabalize by early next year.
2) Interest rates remain near historically low values at around 5% for 30 year fixed mortgage. I expect to see these rates remain low in the near term, but may rise some by next year.
3) I expect to see rural house values continue to decline faster than urban areas due to the fact that more individuals may be selling a 2nd home or a lake home in order to meet financial obligations. I would say prices are still the most inflated in the Lakes Region.

Sorry, where is the lakes region? The area I'm interested in is New Market, Exeter, Portsmouth.

[Valerie C]

While nobody can answer with any authority on just when the bottom will hit, I'll tell you that we're not there yet (but I think we're getting close). In my target area (which just happens to be the triangle of which you speak) there were 48 new listings today, and 16 'back on markets'. 35 listings had price decreases, 18 expired unsold, 26 went 'under agreement' and 9 closed. Of the 9, 3 appear to have been bank owned...

While it's easy to sell doom and gloom on the evening news, this is a true and accurate snapshot of one day in real estate in New Hampshire, according to our MLS. Yes there are more new listings than closings, which increases the supply of homes on the market, but realistic Sellers and serious Buyers are making deals every day.

Originally Posted by movingover

I'm specifically talking about within the triangle of Manchester, Nashua and Portsmouth. I've been watching it carefully for the past 3 years and it has dropped quite a bit. When will it bottom, or has it already?

[GregW]

IMHO the prices will stabilize around three times the median income in the south and two times in the North Country. The south includes the better paid northern Massachusetts market and an increasing population while the North has lost most of the decent paying jobs and a fair amount of population.

Real estate prices were highly inflated by the “it will always be worth more tomorrow” speculative attitude. Those days are over and housing is now being priced for its value as housing; not as a speculative investment. Prices reflect this change in attitude and availability of low interest credit.

[jthibodeau]

Nice job, Val. And, as you say, no one has a crystal ball to tell where this is going. If it has any significance, I can tell you, approximately, where it went during the last real estate crash of the 90's.

During 1988, I constructed a 3000 ft. duplex. Bank appraisal, as well as town assessment, estimated the value of the building and land at $250.000 (current market price). Within 2 years the banks began to fail. The foreclosures in the real estate section of the newspapers were 5 and 6 pages long. When the fiasco finally "bottomed out", I would have been fortunate to sell the property at $150.000. It took more than 10 years to recoup the loss of value.

Let's hope this one isn't anywhere near that.........

[BF66389]

Val-

[GraniteStater]

The Seacoast (Portsmouth, Newmarket) has seen some definite declines in housing prices. However, the caveat is I think some sellers are trying to wait it out and not re-list their property after the listing expires. This has been happening more frequently in the rural sections of the state.

[BF66389]

Not sure what happened above...most of most post dissapeared after posting & I can't edit- go figure.

What I was saying was:

Val-
We bought our home in June (looked for a year locally, 2 years remotely) and our friend is closing in a few weeks. During both of our home searches (both in the 300-450k range) we both indicated that it seemed like more "unique" homes around 400k (contemporaries, anything with an open floorplan, nice/larger property but well located) seemed to sell FAST (as in a few days and close to asking price) provided they were up-to-date and in good repair (a lot of what was out there was NOT in good repair). Likewise more "normal" colonials and whatnot seemed to be more "bargain" dependant. We were also both very suprised by how much garbage was out there...smelly homes, dirty homes, moldy homes, water-spotted ceiling homes, etc...

Have you noticed that some homes (despite not being priced "cheap") just get snatched up?

[Brave Stranger]

Part of the problem is that housing costs are still not in line with rental prices & income. Until that levels off house prices will keep falling. We also have this terrible "loop" where we are losing one million jobs every two months which cause people to pull back from purchasing anything....including homes. And, if that's not enough, there is going to be a massive resetting of commerical loans by the middle of 2009 that will make the personal housing defaults we have seen tame. Expect widespread retail faliures with many malls going into default. I would not think of purchasing a home for at least another year. This mess will not start to clear up until 2011 IMO.

[Kathleen DeMello]

You cannot time the bottom of the market. By the time we realize we have hit bottom it is already on the way up. This is true in both the real estate market and the financial market. As far as homes being on the market for a year or more, it is usually because they are priced too high. It's not the seller that determines the value of a property, it's the buyer. January average days on market in Nashua, in the meat of the market ($200K - $250K) is 30-90 days. There was a 5 month inventory in that market, which is considered a buyer's market. Not bad stats.

[Brave Stranger]

Originally Posted by Kathleen DeMello

You cannot time the bottom of the market. By the time we realize we have hit bottom it is already on the way up. This is true in both the real estate market and the financial market. As far as homes being on the market for a year or more, it is usually because they are priced too high. It's not the seller that determines the value of a property, it's the buyer. January average days on market in Nashua, in the meat of the market ($200K - $250K) is 30-90 days. There was a 5 month inventory in that market, which is considered a buyer's market. Not bad stats.

We may hit bottom in a year or two or even less.....but that only means most prices will then stay flat for some time in most markets. It's going to be many years before we see house prices going up year after year on a regular basis. If job loses continue at this rate ALL bets are off.