Considering moving to Jersey until I can afford NYC-questions (Newark: home, college)

[elflord1973]

Originally Posted by cf77

Hahahaha figures, trying to find a loop hole. Go ahead and look up any city on there the numbers are close. So now that I've shown proof,

But it isn't proof, because as I've demonstrated, whatever method they use to compute their "risk" produces conclusions that are not consistent with the underlying crime statistics. It's not enough to cite some source, if the source you're citing is nonsense (and as far as I'm concerned, an index computed using an undisclosed method that does not appear to reflect the underlying crime stats is nonsense)

For example, as I posted, the "murder risk" for Greenville and 07302 are comparable, but the underlying homicide numbers are completely different.

and this is as good as its gonna get because if I post more Im sure you'll sit up all night with a fine tooth comb trying to find something, why exactly is my argument not as valid as Tommyc's? And why are you jumping on my case? It's funny how hard your trying and thinking I've been lead by a false source, your fun.

Tommy hasn't posted any proof in this thread either. However, I'm less inclined to think that he's making things up, because he has lived in downtown Jersey City for some time and seems to know what he's talking about, whereas you are just posting nonsense.

[tommyc_37]

Yeah, those stats make absolutely no sense, and I question their credibility.

[cf77]

Originally Posted by elflord1973

But it isn't proof, because as I've demonstrated, whatever method they use to compute their "risk" produces conclusions that are not consistent with the underlying crime statistics. It's not enough to cite some source, if the source you're citing is nonsense (and as far as I'm concerned, an index computed using an undisclosed method that does not appear to reflect the underlying crime stats is nonsense)

For example, as I posted, the "murder risk" for Greenville and 07302 are comparable, but the underlying homicide numbers are completely different.

Tommy hasn't posted any proof in this thread either. However, I'm less inclined to think that he's making things up, because he has lived in downtown Jersey City for some time and seems to know what he's talking about, whereas you are just posting nonsense.

So because you "Elflord1973" said so you just de bunked a reputable website huh. I'll agree with you on the murder aspect but did it ever occur to you that maybe the other stats are right on par, or at least close? In fact most websites if you look around have a very high crime rate for downtown so maybe its a universal mess up, that I dont know. As for Tommyc living in downtown JC so he knows more is pretty silly. He most likley learning more and more about the city but sometimes he stretches it ex: Hoboken and Downtown JC /similar crime. It's really not a big deal I just feel the need to call people out sometimes if they are wrong, so sue me. As for me just posting "non sense" thats your opinion but I bet you never knew that I work downtown and have to be there 5 days a week, for a number of years. So trust me I know a little more than you think.

[elflord1973]

Originally Posted by cf77

So because you "Elflord1973" said so you just de bunked a reputable website huh. I'll agree with you on the murder aspect but did it ever occur to you that maybe the other stats are right on par, or at least close?

I'm not claiming that the numbers are wrong for every single town, but they are clearly wrong for Jersey City. Not just because "I said so", but because I showed that their numbers are inconsistent with the underlying crime data. I hadn't heard of the website until you pointed it out to me as an example of stats gone wrong, so I'm surprised that it's "reputable".

By the way, take a look at their "risk index" numbers for different zip codes in Newark and tell me if they look plausible or if they look like BS.

In fact most websites if you look around have a very high crime rate for downtown so maybe its a universal mess up, that I dont know.

There are probably a number of different websites all showing the same misleading numbers. One principal with stats is that it's often a bad idea to get too far from the source data (in the case of crime, the original crime map is ideal). Elaborate statistics to compute "indexes" can produce horribly misleading results.

[cf77]

Thats fine ,since stats are all wrong then we'll go with real experiences then. How about that poor mother and baby murdered in Paulus Hook Towers not long ago? Or how about the gang fight by Exchange Place that ended with one kid shot and floating in the Hudson? How about the huge brawls that take place every so often that end in stabbings, or the kids getting caught with machettes. Now tell me how much you hear about that in Hoboken? I mean really do you need more? Or am I still just spitting non sense.

[cf77]

Originally Posted by elflord1973

I'm not claiming that the numbers are wrong for every single town, but they are clearly wrong for Jersey City.

Oh of course, Just JC is wrong.

[elflord1973]

Originally Posted by cf77

Oh of course, Just JC is wrong.

Please pay attention, and do read what you're responding to before you post a knee-jerk "rebuttal" ! As I posted before, their "risk indexes" look very suspect for Newark too. For example, they have North Ironbound right up there with the sketchier neighborhoods.

Thats fine ,since stats are all wrong then we'll go with real experiences then.

"All stats are wrong" is a straw man. The numbers you cited are not "stats"(*) , they are an index (some number) that is computed using methods that are not disclosed. Because the method is unknown, we don't really know what it means. One thing that seems clear, however, is that whatever that index is, it does not appear to be correlated with the actual crime rate in a given zip code.

"Actual experiences" are useful, but they need to be put in a wider context. The original data, before it was molested by these "statisticians" would be ideal.

(*) if you posted the actual crime rates by zip code, that would be useful information. However, I suspect these aren't reported/tallied.

[cf77]

Originally Posted by elflord1973

Please pay attention, and do read what you're responding to before you post a knee-jerk "rebuttal" ! As I posted before, their "risk indexes" look very suspect for Newark too. For example, they have North Ironbound right up there with the sketchier neighborhoods.



"All stats are wrong" is a straw man. The numbers you cited are not "stats"(*) , they are an index (some number) that is computed using methods that are not disclosed. Because the method is unknown, we don't really know what it means. One thing that seems clear, however, is that whatever that index is, it does not appear to be correlated with the actual crime rate in a given zip code.

"Actual experiences" are useful, but they need to be put in a wider context. The original data, before it was molested by these "statisticians" would be ideal.

(*) if you posted the actual crime rates by zip code, that would be useful information. However, I suspect these aren't reported/tallied.

Is this guy serious? Tell you what, why don't you ask TommyC where he got his info to make that original statement he made. Because he has no more credibility than myself. I have been in and out of Downtown JC for years and have been working there for YEARS. So tell me why you seem to think Im still wrong. What exactly gives Tommyc so much credibility? And believe me these are not knee jerk reactions Im just completley baffled by your logic.
What I get out of it is this, I've been in JC many more years than Tommyc yet I spew non sense and have no credibility and have actually posted truth (weather you belive it or not, sift through the JJ archives ). And Tommyc lived in JC for a few years but knows more and only speaks the truth. Please enlighten me Elflord, website aside, please enlighten me to why I spew nonsense.

[cf77]

Originally Posted by elflord1973

"Actual experiences" are useful, but they need to be put in a wider context. The original data, before it was molested by these "statisticians" would be ideal.

What in Gods name are you saying? You want the original police report or something? No more soda for this guy.

[elflord1973]

Originally Posted by cf77

What in Gods name are you saying? You want the original police report or something?

Originally Posted by elflord1973

(*) if you posted the actual crime rates by zip code, that would be useful information. However, I suspect these aren't reported/tallied.

What part of "the actual crime rates by zip code" do you find confusing ?