So is the sale of my home hopeless? (Montclair: bank owned, foreclosure)

[Delphi]

Originally Posted by JamesBoyer

your comparison is to simple, and reflective of your lack of experence and knolledge of how things work overall.

The same simple formula that worked upside doesn't work downside..right?? We need an Quants guy now. The whole global financial crisis is not caused by housing bubble (because there wasn't any bubble in the first place..remember !!??).

Just watch how things deflate in NY metro areas on you. It's just the beginning.

[JamesBoyer]

Originally Posted by Delphi

The same simple formula that worked upside doesn't work downside..right?? We need an Quants guy now. The whole global financial crisis is not caused by housing bubble (because there wasn't any bubble in the first place..remember !!??).

Just watch how things deflate in NY metro areas on you. It's just the beginning.

The same standards apply really. I still believe the doom Sayers are being way to negative. Unlike the stock market, many times when people feel they cannot get a certain price for a home they just decide to keep it.

I know someone who turned down a job in Chicago that paid like 30K more than his job here, who turned down the job because when I presented my marketing plan and told him I would not list his home for the price he wanted to list it for, as I knew it would not sell. He purchased the home in 2003, but feels like he lost money on it because he knows what he likely could have sold it for in 2006. The difference in numbers is 60K and he would still be making a nice profit at the amount I suggested.

[theoakman]

Originally Posted by JamesBoyer

The same standards apply really. I still believe the doom Sayers are being way to negative. Unlike the stock market, many times when people feel they cannot get a certain price for a home they just decide to keep it.

I know someone who turned down a job in Chicago that paid like 30K more than his job here, who turned down the job because when I presented my marketing plan and told him I would not list his home for the price he wanted to list it for, as I knew it would not sell. He purchased the home in 2003, but feels like he lost money on it because he knows what he likely could have sold it for in 2006. The difference in numbers is 60K and he would still be making a nice profit at the amount I suggested.

Yeah well, it seems to not be the case that people are simply able to "decide to keep there home". Foreclosures doubled in NJ. With unemployment getting worse every day, they are only going to increase.

[NatasNJ]

Originally Posted by JamesBoyer

And if in order to buy that same house in Jan 2010 you have to pay a 1% higher mortgage interest rate equaling a 9% higher mortgage payment per 100K borrowed is it still a better deal later than sooner?

There are more factors than just price!

More factors than just price, I agree.

But it is amazing that you know where interest rates are going to be in 2010. I am sure you predicted where rates were going to be today a year ago right?

You can't predict rates but you can SEE houses sell for less and less which has been happening. I am not a doom and gloomer but I am also not a "everything is fine" guy either.

And typically when interest rates RISE house prices DROP. So there is usually some offset there.

[sholden]

Originally Posted by JamesBoyer

And if in order to buy that same house in Jan 2010 you have to pay a 1% higher mortgage interest rate equaling a 9% higher mortgage payment per 100K borrowed is it still a better deal later than sooner?

There are more factors than just price!

If interests rates are higher house prices will be even lower. And yes, buying when interests rate are high is much better (bigger deduction).

It's simple supply and demand, the median income can afford $X/month on their mortgage, if interests rates are high the median house price will hence be lower since X is fixed.Of course sellers can just refuse to sell at those prices in which cases you get fewer sales instead...

Also, generally when prices overshoot on the high side (as they did) then they also tend to overshoot on the low side. House prices are not at historic lows yet, given the size of the boom you would expect the bust to hit something historic on the low side. Though of course the government is printing money as fast as it can to try and stop that from happening, and that interference means all these fundamentals of markets tend to go awry.

[JamesBoyer]

Originally Posted by theoakman

Yeah well, it seems to not be the case that people are simply able to "decide to keep there home". Foreclosures doubled in NJ. With unemployment getting worse every day, they are only going to increase.

yes Oakman doubled from 1% to 2% somehow I am not nearly as impressed when it is stated in actual numbers rather than your blanket doubled!!

[JamesBoyer]

Originally Posted by NatasNJ

More factors than just price, I agree.

But it is amazing that you know where interest rates are going to be in 2010. I am sure you predicted where rates were going to be today a year ago right?

You can't predict rates but you can SEE houses sell for less and less which has been happening. I am not a doom and gloomer but I am also not a "everything is fine" guy either.

And typically when interest rates RISE house prices DROP. So there is usually some offset there.

Notice I qualified my answer. I expect that interest rates will likely be somewhat higher a year from now, but I don't know if they will. Just like I very much do not expect home prices will dip the way a few of the doom Sayers on this board keep trying to pound into the heads of anyone who will listen to them.

As I have posted the stats for a number of towns in another thread in this forum, I will not post them here as well, but for many towns the declines from 2006 prices is not that impressive. One of the towns (Madison NJ) was down less than 10% on both the median and the average decline. All the other towns I posted has somewhat similar numbers.

Nobody has posted numbers for towns other than a beach town, that show dramatic price declines so far, why should I believe that we will see them now?

[tahiti]

Originally Posted by JamesBoyer

Notice I qualified my answer. I expect that interest rates will likely be somewhat higher a year from now, but I don't know if they will. Just like I very much do not expect home prices will dip the way a few of the doom Sayers on this board keep trying to pound into the heads of anyone who will listen to them.

As I have posted the stats for a number of towns in another thread in this forum, I will not post them here as well, but for many towns the declines from 2006 prices is not that impressive. One of the towns (Madison NJ) was down less than 10% on both the median and the average decline. All the other towns I posted has somewhat similar numbers.

Nobody has posted numbers for towns other than a beach town, that show dramatic price declines so far, why should I believe that we will see them now?

i also posted my town (not a beach town) is down about 25% per a REALTOR.

[JamesBoyer]

Harding?? your realtor has no numbers to actually support that statment!!

I realize there were half as many sales in 2008 as in 2007 but look at the average sales price and the median sales price and the number you posted is just wrong?

On top of that, Harding is considered to be a luxury home market, hardly what most on here would want to compare too. Ask your Realtor to give you the actual report!!

[tahiti]

Originally Posted by JamesBoyer

Harding?? your realtor has no numbers to actually support that statment!!

I realize there were half as many sales in 2008 as in 2007 but look at the average sales price and the median sales price and the number you posted is just wrong?

On top of that, Harding is considered to be a luxury home market, hardly what most on here would want to compare too. Ask your Realtor to give you the actual report!!

why do you think I live in Harding?