So is the sale of my home hopeless? (credit card, student loans)

[NatasNJ]

Originally Posted by JamesBoyer

You all can go on believing what you want. Things are what they are. if you want to call NJ a bubble well you can if you want, but then you likely need to call most every state a bubble, and I really don't think that is accurate.

On the same account I could call you all communists, but am I being accurate? probably not, but I can still do it.

Most states DID bubble. Hence why prices NATIONWIDE are dropping for the correction. And the states that AREN'T DROPPING signifigantly are those who didn't have the same 20% yearly appreciation as many states did.

States like Flordia and California and Arizona and Nevada had the biggest bubbles. But most states in the Northeast had 100%+ appreciation over a few years. That is still a bubble just not on the same insane scale as some states. Even states like TX had a slight increase in prices year or year (I think around 4-5%) are also dropping in value just not as much as other states.

HOUSING in general BUBBLED! Just like Tech Stocks back in the day. Different size bubbles are all popping and the pop is at different paces depending on size of bubble etc...

The point is the housing values in NJ since 1999 have increased more than it should have and a correction is due. What % correction we can debate but prices ARE going down. You even said it. The great debate is by how much and when will it stablize.

Do you think what I just said is justified?

[sholden]

Originally Posted by JamesBoyer

Not going to respond to the others, but I will respond to you on this one.

I am not in denial, I know that stats can be made to lie. I know that what ever they pulled for this little tool they have is what they pulled. I question how it can be so far off. How could they miss 50% of the home sale and transfers for an entire town?

OK, here are the raw transfers for Morris Twp for the first 6 months of 2007. you do the calculations.

# ML # TOWN ADDRESS LP STYLE SP
1 2397665 Morris Twp. 5 CENTER AVE UNIT 2 $219,900 TwnIntUn $219,900
SNIP 160 odd more lines

and no i am not going to clean up the data, but the first number is the data number, secnond number is the MLS number, third is the property number then street, then 4th number is the list price, the last number is sold price.

164 home sales during that period. don't believe me call another Realtor and ask them.

What are all those sales supposed to show? That the web site you disagree with is correct?

By the way the median of those sales prices is $525,000 and the web site you seem to be disagreeing with has the median price for the same time period at $523,000 - so chances are there's a couple of sales in your list that they didn't count because they aren't in the "Useable Sales" category - sold to a family member or whatever.

And they explained why they only include half the year. The second half of the year in some towns isn't marked as "Usable" due to tax recalculations occuring, and so that you can compare across towns they exclude all those second half of the year sales from all towns. That's called good statistics - it would be wrong to count all sales from 2004 and only half the sales from 2006 for example due to 2006 being a tax recalc year in some town.

For inter-year comparisons since it's done for all years it's not a problem. It just means there numbers aren't for the whole year. 12 months isn't a magic number, reading it another way gives that their Morris Twp numbers say that in the 14 six-monthly periods from first half 2000 to first half 2007 prices increaed by 58.3%.

[JamesBoyer]

Originally Posted by NatasNJ

Most states DID bubble. Hence why prices NATIONWIDE are dropping for the correction. And the states that AREN'T DROPPING signifigantly are those who didn't have the same 20% yearly appreciation as many states did.

States like Flordia and California and Arizona and Nevada had the biggest bubbles. But most states in the Northeast had 100%+ appreciation over a few years. That is still a bubble just not on the same insane scale as some states. Even states like TX had a slight increase in prices year or year (I think around 4-5%) are also dropping in value just not as much as other states.

HOUSING in general BUBBLED! Just like Tech Stocks back in the day. Different size bubbles are all popping and the pop is at different paces depending on size of bubble etc...

The point is the housing values in NJ since 1999 have increased more than it should have and a correction is due. What % correction we can debate but prices ARE going down. You even said it. The great debate is by how much and when will it stablize.

Do you think what I just said is justified?

I will stick with the definition of a real estate bubble that I know. there is no point in arguing as the raw stats can be made to show what you want as has been pointed out.

I am not going to go though all the stats as I need to make a living as well, but here is an example. If the average home sold in 2000 and 2001 in a town was a 3 bedroom 2 bath cape at 1500 sqft. and the average home sold in that same town in 2006 was a 4 bedroom 3 bath colonial at 2700 sqft, don't you think the raw numbers need some more interpretation.

I do think that prices continue to fall in many towns. How much, hard to say because there are lots of factors playing into it. 200K to 400K condos may be holding their value in one town and losing 2% to 4% a year in another town. McMansions out in the sticks are getting beaten up fairly badly. I would not want to be the owner of a 4000sqft McMansion out in Sussex, Warren, or other counties out their. Now a 2000 sqft home or a smaller condo in madison Chatham Summit... I would be fairly comfortable with at this point, not to much risk of prices coming down to much.

[JamesBoyer]

Originally Posted by sholden

What are all those sales supposed to show? That the web site you disagree with is correct?

By the way the median of those sales prices is $525,000 and the web site you seem to be disagreeing with has the median price for the same time period at $523,000 - so chances are there's a couple of sales in your list that they didn't count because they aren't in the "Useable Sales" category - sold to a family member or whatever.

And they explained why they only include half the year. The second half of the year in some towns isn't marked as "Usable" due to tax recalculations occuring, and so that you can compare across towns they exclude all those second half of the year sales from all towns. That's called good statistics - it would be wrong to count all sales from 2004 and only half the sales from 2006 for example due to 2006 being a tax recalc year in some town.

For inter-year comparisons since it's done for all years it's not a problem. It just means there numbers aren't for the whole year. 12 months isn't a magic number, reading it another way gives that their Morris Twp numbers say that in the 14 six-monthly periods from first half 2000 to first half 2007 prices increaed by 58.3%.

He asked for my data, he said proof. My point in posting it was their data has wholes in it. I pulled the first 6 months of the year just like they did. If they tell me there were 84 home sales when I darn well know there were 164 home sales done by Realtors alone, I know there is something wrong. There were most assuredly other sales that do not show up in the MLS as well, to the number is even further off, but I don't have evidence easily avalible to me so I will go with what I have.

I was not arguing 6 months vs 12 months as I did not see it as a big deal.

[sholden]

Originally Posted by JamesBoyer

He asked for my data, he said proof. My point in posting it was their data has wholes in it. I pulled the first 6 months of the year just like they did. If they tell me there were 84 home sales when I darn well know there were 164 home sales done by Realtors alone, I know there is something wrong. There were most assuredly other sales that do not show up in the MLS as well, to the number is even further off, but I don't have evidence easily avalible to me so I will go with what I have.

I was not arguing 6 months vs 12 months as I did not see it as a big deal.

Yes the usable and unusable ones, since the medians are the same, it really doesn't matter. Since unsurprisingly as long as their exclusion criteria on what a fair market sale is fiar and unbiased (and it isn't their criteria it is the tax assessors criteria) it shouldn't change the median much. For 2007 in that town it would seem to be perfectly fair given the median didn't change.

[PD517]

Originally Posted by JamesBoyer

Please do not imply that I am a lier again. I do not appreciate it. I have posted accurate numbers. If you do not believe them, call up someone else and see if they will send you the information. If you don't like the numbers I have posted, well I am sorry, I have posted what is there, they are what they are.

My interest in this is the accuracy of the data and the statments. I feel that many of the statments being made in this thread and others are not accurate or based in fact. To imply that New Jersey will fall as hard as Florida falls, is a very big strech in my opinion.

James, I did not say you were a liar. All myself and others asked for was for you to post proof to backup your statements.

Finally you posted something legit.

Your MLS Data states:
164 Home Sales in Morris Township for the first 6 months of 2007.

NJ.com's data taken from the NJ Dept. Of Taxation - Tax Records:
Showing only 84 sales.

Why the discrepancy? Again if you looked at what I posted previously the NJ.com data is only pulling data for ONE TO FOUR FAMILY HOMES.

"The Big Picture: This table shows annual residential sales data for INSERT TOWN NAME HERE.. It includes all fair-market sales -- as deemed by the local tax assessor -- of one-to four-family homes that occurred in the first six months of the given year. Interfamily transactions and other sales that were not made at market prices are excluded. Note that medians are more volatile in towns with few sales"


If you look at the "NJ Tax Records Search" site, you will see how a residence is classified - townhomes/condos as CONDO - not included in the data. 1fam,2fam etc - IS included. Granted it would be nice if they did show all the sales - they don't. Take away all those from your data which is including townhomes and condos and the numbers will almost match. Agreed?


Now back to the whole discussion of PRICES. I will use some of the examples of MLS sales data you posted. Let's concentrate on townhomes/condos (first time buyer places). Out of your examples lets check on a street that had a few sales during the first 6 months of 2007. WILDFLOWER LANE - a nice collection of townhomes in the Rose Arbor complex in Morris Township (even though the addresses are considered Morristown). Lets see what some people paid around 1999 vs. 2007 (all prices are pulled from the NJ TAX RECORDS SEARCH website):

57 2381758 Morris Twp. 75 Wildflower Lane $464,000 TwnIntUn $455,000

Prices Paid:
06/12/2007 - $455,000
07/28/2005 - $425,000
04/05/2002 - $305,050
07/27/2001 - $264,000



53 2344369 Morris Twp. 73 Wildflower Lane $449,900 TwnIntUn $444,000

Prices Paid:
01/23/2007 - $444,000
03/13/2002 - $303,000
04/13/1998 - $223,900
11/21/1996 - $77,140


48 2359829 Morris Twp. 14 WILDFLOWER LN $449,000 TwnIntUn $449,900

Prices Paid:
04/30/2007 - $449,000
11/12/2004 - $372,500
01/17/1999 - $208,500
03/19/1997 - $183,000


46 2382052 Morris Twp. 39 WILDFLOWER LN $444,900 TwnEndUn $425,000

Prices Paid:
06/11/2007 - $425,000
12/15/1999 - $235,000


42 2367252 Morris Twp. 51 Wildflower Lane $434,900 TwnEndUn $430,000

Prices Paid:
04/15/2008 - $408,000 (uh oh prices are starting to drop)
03/30/2007 - $430,000
09/28/2005 - $430,000
12/22/1998 - $211,000
09/23/1997 - $200,000


41 2336169 Morris Twp. 22 Wildflower Lane $429,000 TwnEndUn $415,000

Prices Paid:
04/19/2007 - $415,000
05/07/2001 - $292,000
07/31/1998 - $210,000


37 2348253 Morris Twp. 1 Wildflower Lane $424,500 TwnEndUn $413,036

Prices Paid:
12/19/2006 - (2006 is not 2007, why is it included in your data)- $413,036
12/31/01 - $292,500



Enough. I did the comparison of just a sample of data that is NOT included in mine vs. what was included in yours. Still going around the average 100% price increases in such a short time span vs. the average 3% yearly increase.


You still seem to disagree we are in a "bubble". When comparing to markets such as Florida, California or Vegas those "bubbles" EXPLODED. I can go to Vegas right now and pick up a home for $85k with an inground pool, etc.. that was selling for $450k in 2005. That is an explosion.

Jersey is right now in a DEFLATION. Prices will get back to normal, obviously not as fast as other areas in the country, but it is all relative - INCOME and MORTGAGE UNDERWRITING STANDARDS. Sellers and agents here have it stuck in their heads they want 2005-2007 prices. Some people are just pulling their homes off the market and trying to "wait it out". Time has changed, their plans to retire off somewhere nice have changed. They are stuck with dreams and hopes. The landscape has changed - there will be an unprecedented number of ARM RESETS (adjustable rate mortgages for those who don't know), foreclosures and layoffs that are now starting and will continue. It's sad our government is trying to "prop" it up for a while but it is inevitable.

Even if you don't think so then take a look here:
United States housing bubble - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Let me see, there are about 135 citations/references, many from ECONOMISTS & HARD DATA. I would tend to listen to what they have to say vs. a real estate agent from NJ who has a vested interest in home prices staying where they are.

[JamesBoyer]

Originally Posted by PD517

James, I did not say you were a liar. All myself and others asked for was for you to post proof to backup your statements.

Finally you posted something legit.

Your MLS Data states:
164 Home Sales in Morris Township for the first 6 months of 2007.

NJ.com's data taken from the NJ Dept. Of Taxation - Tax Records:
Showing only 84 sales.

Why the discrepancy? Again if you looked at what I posted previously the NJ.com data is only pulling data for ONE TO FOUR FAMILY HOMES.

"The Big Picture: This table shows annual residential sales data for INSERT TOWN NAME HERE.. It includes all fair-market sales -- as deemed by the local tax assessor -- of one-to four-family homes that occurred in the first six months of the given year. Interfamily transactions and other sales that were not made at market prices are excluded. Note that medians are more volatile in towns with few sales"


If you look at the "NJ Tax Records Search" site, you will see how a residence is classified - townhomes/condos as CONDO - not included in the data. 1fam,2fam etc - IS included. Granted it would be nice if they did show all the sales - they don't. Take away all those from your data which is including townhomes and condos and the numbers will almost match. Agreed?


Now back to the whole discussion of PRICES. I will use some of the examples of MLS sales data you posted. Let's concentrate on townhomes/condos (first time buyer places). Out of your examples lets check on a street that had a few sales during the first 6 months of 2007. WILDFLOWER LANE - a nice collection of townhomes in the Rose Arbor complex in Morris Township (even though the addresses are considered Morristown). Lets see what some people paid around 1999 vs. 2007 (all prices are pulled from the NJ TAX RECORDS SEARCH website):

57 2381758 Morris Twp. 75 Wildflower Lane $464,000 TwnIntUn $455,000

Prices Paid:
06/12/2007 - $455,000
07/28/2005 - $425,000
04/05/2002 - $305,050
07/27/2001 - $264,000



53 2344369 Morris Twp. 73 Wildflower Lane $449,900 TwnIntUn $444,000

Prices Paid:
01/23/2007 - $444,000
03/13/2002 - $303,000
04/13/1998 - $223,900
11/21/1996 - $77,140


48 2359829 Morris Twp. 14 WILDFLOWER LN $449,000 TwnIntUn $449,900

Prices Paid:
04/30/2007 - $449,000
11/12/2004 - $372,500
01/17/1999 - $208,500
03/19/1997 - $183,000


46 2382052 Morris Twp. 39 WILDFLOWER LN $444,900 TwnEndUn $425,000

Prices Paid:
06/11/2007 - $425,000
12/15/1999 - $235,000


42 2367252 Morris Twp. 51 Wildflower Lane $434,900 TwnEndUn $430,000

Prices Paid:
04/15/2008 - $408,000 (uh oh prices are starting to drop)
03/30/2007 - $430,000
09/28/2005 - $430,000
12/22/1998 - $211,000
09/23/1997 - $200,000


41 2336169 Morris Twp. 22 Wildflower Lane $429,000 TwnEndUn $415,000

Prices Paid:
04/19/2007 - $415,000
05/07/2001 - $292,000
07/31/1998 - $210,000


37 2348253 Morris Twp. 1 Wildflower Lane $424,500 TwnEndUn $413,036

Prices Paid:
12/19/2006 - (2006 is not 2007, why is it included in your data)- $413,036
12/31/01 - $292,500

because it reported sold after 12/31/2006 and before 7/1/2007

On top of that, what I pulled is exclusivly 1 family homes. No 2 fam, no 3 fam, no 4 fam. Just 1 family, so there are likey even more that could be pulled.

The data is F#@$

You can argue all you want, and post Winkapedia all you want still does not change my mind. Also in most towns the tax assessor does not make any sort of call as to if a sale was a arms length sale or not, They just don't care, they are not going to base the amount they tax on the sale price.

I get people all the time wanting to dispute their taxes saying they could not possibly sell their home for what it is assessed for, or we just paid 100K less then the assessment. You know what the towns tell these people? Go pound sand.

[NatasNJ]

Originally Posted by PD517

I would tend to listen to what they have to say vs. a real estate agent from NJ who has a vested interest in home prices staying where they are.

This is the ONLY thing think isn't dead on. Agents income doesn't drop dramtically when house prices drop. If an agent sells a $100k home (assuming 6% in realtor costs) they get $1500. (assuming they only have 1 side of it) So if a 500k home drops 100k it doesn't affect them that dramatically... Even less when you figure 300k homes dropping to $250k.

Now if you are referring to price drops causing lack of sales? Then sure he has a vested interest. But it doesn't matter what he THINKS or tells his clients. The market (buyers) will dictate what they will spend on housing over the next year or two and everything points to much less than today.

[sholden]

Originally Posted by JamesBoyer

because it reported sold after 12/31/2006 and before 7/1/2007

On top of that, what I pulled is exclusivly 1 family homes. No 2 fam, no 3 fam, no 4 fam. Just 1 family, so there are likey even more that could be pulled.

The data is F#@$

You can argue all you want, and post Winkapedia all you want still does not change my mind. Also in most towns the tax assessor does not make any sort of call as to if a sale was a arms length sale or not, They just don't care, they are not going to base the amount they tax on the sale price.

I get people all the time wanting to dispute their taxes saying they could not possibly sell their home for what it is assessed for, or we just paid 100K less then the assessment. You know what the towns tell these people? Go pound sand.

So pull the ones that qualify for those stats, just 1-4 bedroom single family homes and list them.

Though there's not much point, random internet poster with obvious skin in the game, or the Department of Treasury which just compiles reported sales.

[PD517]

Originally Posted by JamesBoyer

because it reported sold after 12/31/2006 and before 7/1/2007

On top of that, what I pulled is exclusivly 1 family homes. No 2 fam, no 3 fam, no 4 fam. Just 1 family, so there are likey even more that could be pulled.

The data is F#@$

You can argue all you want, and post Winkapedia all you want still does not change my mind. Also in most towns the tax assessor does not make any sort of call as to if a sale was a arms length sale or not, They just don't care, they are not going to base the amount they tax on the sale price.

I get people all the time wanting to dispute their taxes saying they could not possibly sell their home for what it is assessed for, or we just paid 100K less then the assessment. You know what the towns tell these people? Go pound sand.

Ok SERIOUSLY, forget about the DATA SOURCES. Who cares which one has more, has less, etc.. Fact of the matter is both sources are showing homes sold averaging 100% + increases in such a short time span (1997-2007 approx). What can you not see? That is a bubble.

Go ahead and dispute the wikipedia entry. Go ahead and dispute all the linked CITATIONS in the entry. I'm sure sources such as known economists, case-schiller, financial journals were all wrong but the NJ real estate agent is right.


You may not want to change your mind, but at least everyone else reading all these threads, that may have not have had the knowledge of what is really going on with this market, can see both sides of the story presented to them with facts and opinions and choose who to believe. That's the power of the Internet, it can either help you or hurt you in your business, it's up to you to decide which one.