So is the sale of my home hopeless? (Summit, Morristown: loans, how much)

[marye711]

My sister lives in Ringwood and has a contract after 2 1/2 weeks 7K less than asking price. house was priced right, shown well and she had buyers in and out............it is under $400k those are the ones that are selling, dont give up I wish you luck hang in there!!

[PD517]

Originally Posted by JamesBoyer

This will only be settled in the future. I feel fairly comfortable that the near future is much brighter than you and a few others would paint it. As far as economists, haven't we all learned that there predictions are worth about the same as what we all leave in the toilet.

by the way, I did not level personal attacks against you, why take this to the personal level?? I happen to see the data and not see the end of the world.

Hey man, it is nothing personal against you. We are all in a debate here. Just like politics, both sides will have their beliefs. And it's up to both sides to present what information they have and let everyone else come up with their own conclusions. Kind of like a trial

If you thought it was personal when I said a "NJ real estate agent", I was talking about comparing peoples theories and facts - respected economists with factual data with massive amounts of financial related experience vs. someone who may be great at selling homes but also has a vested interest.

Not for nothing but I'm sure you know the perception of the real estate profession nowadays. It's gone the same way as stock and mortgage brokers. A lot of bad apples ruined it for those few that are good.

I deal with real estate agents/brokers on a daily basis and the amount of lies and BS they feed people is ridiculous. Not all, but its a majority. People do not feel if they sell their $400,000 home they should have to pay out 6% ($24,000) to both sides involved. Just like the music and movie industry who tried to do everything they can to stop the landscape from changing, the real estate industry is headed the same way... FAST. Those who adapt and go above and beyond, especially with the new age of marketing and advertising due to the Internet, will rise and the rest will fall.

[clevedark]

We're putting a little ranch in Monmouth county on the market and the broker has already found a buyer, a developer who will pay almost 100K more than we thought the house was worth. So for us, the market is not dead at all, but surprisingly robust and optomistic.

[halfoffpeak]

Originally Posted by clevedark

We're putting a little ranch in Monmouth county on the market and the broker has already found a buyer, a developer who will pay almost 100K more than we thought the house was worth. So for us, the market is not dead at all, but surprisingly robust and optomistic.

Good luck with this approach: judging the market from your single personal experience and ignoring statistics and other peoples experience here and everywhere (tv, newspapers, etc). Instead of counting your blessings you project them to other peoples lives.

Other people lost their jobs, savings, equity etc but you see the market robust. Not only re agents but also sellers live in denial. Good grief!

[NatasNJ]

I never think as realtors as RICH people. I have no gripes of them making a good living. But tell me one time ever that a realtor will say "it is a bad time to buy?" If that is the case are they always right or sometime distorting the truth (lying) to benefit themselves?

[NatasNJ]

Originally Posted by licnyc

First, your calculations are wrong. The decrease of prices is the same decrease of income for the agent. So if prices fall 25% the agent's income falls 25%. If one's income falls 25% one might panic. Second, the income of the agent depends on sales (if they sell half of the houses they used to sell their income is 50% down). In short, it is of their interest that you believe that it's a good time to buy. Ignore him.

Third, the buyers do not dictate the market. The market involves lots of forces. We call that economy. RE agents can distort what happens and influence buyers.

Arguing for keeping prices high he goes against buyers and argues for the benefit of sellers. If you ask me he is not looking business from buyers but business for sellers. Not a bad thing if you ask me, as sellers are many more than buyers right now

I think suggesting prices dropping 25% is extreme year over year. Possible I suppose but that is on the extreme end of things averaged out.

But a gradual 10% drop in price over a span of a year I don't think is dramtic in terms of money in a realtors pocket who has a consisent number of sales each year.

And I agree if sales #'s drop at all it will affect realtors. I never disagreed with that.

And I never meant my comments about JamesBoyer as a jab at all. I was defending you for the most part.

James:You can bash me all you want. Not a big deal really. Like you said you went from selling more expensive properties to condos since they are selling now due to the lower costs. Good for you. Smart move.

And as much as real estate is local the NUMBER of properties selling and the price the are selling for in NJ as a whole are in the midst of decline. I can point to as many sources you want to validate that.

And if you think about all the North Jersey layoffs that occured in 3rd and 4th quarter of 2008 will eventually start to cause foreclosures, distressed sales, short sales, etc... in the area.

This chart shows that NJ is a BUBBLE state compared to other states with Dramatic rises in price.

[sholden]

Originally Posted by JamesBoyer

No savings?

Quite a number of the home sales that I have seen where the purchase price was well above 417K, the old number for a conforming loan, had the buyer only getting a loan for 417K so that they could get the lower interest rate. We did that when we purchased our home, put down like 45% so that we could get a conforming loan. I know of lots of people who own homes that they purchased for 600K to 900K but only got mortgages for 417K.

Currently to borrow 417K your monthly payment would be about $2200.

I have savings, but I wouldn't buy anything over $400k and that's higher than I'd like. Let alone borrow that much. I expect prices to come down - if they don't it'll be at the cost of high inflation and I have some investments that will do very well in that environment so I don't lose out completely in that case.

When I say can't afford I don't mean I couldn't make the payments - since I certainly could (assuming my job doesn't disappear of course), but that it'd be too big a proportion of my assets and the money I save renting pays a better return than housing is going to for a little while yet.

[elflord1973]

Originally Posted by sholden

Yes we'll see how it turns out, the inflation inducing government intervention might reinflate things - I have doubts though.

All I know is that the W-2 I have in front of me says I grossed $135k last year (and I have no debt to speak of - no car loan, no student loans, pay off credit cards each month, etc), and I can't afford a 3 bedroom house in the towns I like in NJ at the current prices. I can afford to rent though. Note, we're talking towns an hour by bus.train from manhattan but that are *nice*. And no I'm not giving more details, the above is way more details of my life then I want to hand out on the internet.

Of course NJ residents might just be obscenely rich and I'm in the poor house in relative terms.

You're not the only one. Potential first time buyers are priced out of the market, which is what ultimately ends the ponzi scheme dynamic. Median incomes in most of these towns are 80-100k. Most people in these towns bought in a different market to todays (they had to -- how does someone earning 80k buy a place for over 500 ?)

[JamesBoyer]

Originally Posted by elflord1973

You're not the only one. Potential first time buyers are priced out of the market, which is what ultimately ends the ponzi scheme dynamic. Median incomes in most of these towns are 80-100k. Most people in these towns bought in a different market to todays (they had to -- how does someone earning 80k buy a place for over 500 ?)

I don't know guys, I get plenty of first time home buyers for Springfield, Summit, Chatham, Madison, Morristown, Florham Park, East Hanover ... making less money than $135,000 and they don't seem to have trouble with affordability. On top of that probably 30% of the people in these areas commute into the city every day.

[wasabi28]

I would suggest getting a really good real estate agent who is knowledgeable of the area and your target market. Expect to sell for less than you really wanted to as well. Stage your house if it is at all possible and remember that the first impression is what gets a buyers attention. Take a look at the house across the street and then do what you can to make your house comparable. Best of luck!