So is the sale of my home hopeless? (Somerset: homes, buying)

[elflord1973]

Originally Posted by JamesBoyer

That is the problem with your argument, the bottom segments of the market are still fairly active. In many towns the bottom segments are making up 70% of the current sales. Eventually that starts to trickle up. Most people once they have been home owners, especially in single family homes, don't do well going to apartments or rental homes.

I have been working with a few people who are trading up now. The stats show that they can get a bigger discount on the home they are go too, than they have to give on the one they are coming from. Others are begining to realize this as well, and look on this time in the marketas a great time to be trading up.

At least in my neck of the woods, starter home prices, seem to be holding up fairly well.

Not at all. As I explained in the other post, the part of the market that primarily serves people trading up is frozen. It's in a deflationary spiral because the potential trader-uppers have to sell, but they'd prefer not to. So given those conditions, we'd expect an overall decline in sales and a less active market at the high end.

[NatasNJ]

Originally Posted by sholden

It's not hopeless, expecting 2007 or even 2008 prices is though. There are enough people willing to try and catch a falling knife/pick the bottom that if priced right a home should sell.

Of course if James is right and NJ is different, then you'd be a fool to sell now and should wait for prices to rebound back to 2006 levels (since there was no bubble).

JamesB has already said he sees/thinks prices are dropping around .5% MONTHLY. So a 6% yearly decline from the only PRO NJ REAL ESTATE guy in here clearly says something.

[sholden]

Originally Posted by elflord1973

So out of what you listed, the only one that genuinely seems like a "deal" in terms of historical prices is the place in Summit.

I think that place is 26 Huntley Rd, in which case it sold for $427k in '06 so it's 12% down already. Zillow has a 1997 sale at $180k, but I trust zillow about as far as I can kick it, and even they have that marked as "anomalous" and that's so old you would hope something's been done to the property in the meantime.

Zillow also has it as 967 square feet, but surely that has to be wrong. I've lived in 2 bedroom apartments bigger than that.

[clevedark]

I don't really think anything about this--I hope the bottom hasn't fallen out, my anecdotal experience hasn't shown me this, savvy realtors are still making deals. Will this still be true in 6 months or a year if the economy doesn't improve or worsen?

People forget that the mid 90s was a real low point in real estate prices in the NJ/NYC area. Do people hope/fear we reach those levels again? I think so.

I think there's been a lot of recreational real estate buying and selling going on and that is what's grinding to a halt now.

[JamesBoyer]

Originally Posted by elflord1973

Not at all. As I explained in the other post, the part of the market that primarily serves people trading up is frozen. It's in a deflationary spiral because the potential trader-uppers have to sell, but they'd prefer not to. So given those conditions, we'd expect an overall decline in sales and a less active market at the high end.

And what part of the market is that?

We are seeing first time home buyer homes selling, I was just going though looking at the listings for a few homes that would be buyers of mine liked last month and noticed 3 of them are now under contract. All 3 of then would fall into a segment I would say is above the first time home buyer segment.

[Bill Keegan]

Originally Posted by theoakman

Yeah well, it seems to not be the case that people are simply able to "decide to keep there home". Foreclosures doubled in NJ. With unemployment getting worse every day, they are only going to increase.

Forclosures doubled in NJ in what time period? The latest stats I saw don't support that.

[sholden]

Originally Posted by Bill Keegan

Forclosures doubled in NJ in what time period? The latest stats I saw don't support that.

The number so foreclosure filings in 2008 was double the number of foreclosure filings in 2009. So a one year time period as of a month ago. Of course that counts filings not completed foreclosures.


FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY INCREASES 81 PERCENT IN 2008

So yes, the latest stats do support that.

[Bill Keegan]

Originally Posted by PD517

Here's what I wrote at the end of my other "book" post.

edit: For those who want the "bigger" picture of this BUBBLE, please go to the nj.com website and the section "by the numbers"
New Jersey by the Numbers - NJ.com

Click where it says - "Home Sales" then choose "Sales In Your Town". Pick whatever town you want, it will show you a graph and sales data from 2000-2007. Almost every town I looked at showed a 110-200+% INCREASE.

Now tell me there was no bubble.


Everyone go there and look up your town. It will show you the median sales for the first 6 months from 2000-2007. Report back here and tell me if there was a "bubble" or not. Let's see the real estate professionals argue factual data.

Well, I don't know who said there was no bubble. I have said, and I will say again, that I don't believe it needs to deflate quite as much as some others are hoping it will.
For what it's worth, I looked up my town of Bridgewater (Martinsville is one zip code with just under 1,500 properties within Bridgewater, which is a town of roughly 48,000.) For the time period 2000-2007, Bridgewater saw an overall increase of 63.3%, or an average of roughly 7.5% per year. Certainly above the historical norm, but not earth shattering.

[JamesBoyer]

Originally Posted by Bill Keegan

Forclosures doubled in NJ in what time period? The latest stats I saw don't support that.

Bill, you have to take everything theoakman says with a grain of salt. he was screaming that foreclosures had doubled a week or two ago, neglecting to point out they doubled from 1% to 2%, and then when called on it tried to claim such a move would be catastrophic. As if such a move would bring on anything like what 20% and 30% foreclosure rates are doing in parts of south florida and Arizona and parts of California.

Not trying to rip on him Bill, just pointing out that is it a waist of your time to argue with him.

[Bill Keegan]

Originally Posted by sholden

The number so foreclosure filings in 2008 was double the number of foreclosure filings in 2009. So a one year time period as of a month ago. Of course that counts filings not completed foreclosures.


FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY INCREASES 81 PERCENT IN 2008

So yes, the latest stats do support that.

Yep, saw that, thanks. I was looking at more recent month over month stats, which show a DECREASE in filings in NJ.