So is the sale of my home hopeless? (foreclosed, house prices)

[Bill Keegan]

Originally Posted by JamesBoyer

Bill, you have to take everything theoakman says with a grain of salt. he was screaming that foreclosures had doubled a week or two ago, neglecting to point out they doubled from 1% to 2%, and then when called on it tried to claim such a move would be catastrophic. As if such a move would bring on anything like what 20% and 30% foreclosure rates are doing in parts of south florida and Arizona and parts of California.

Not trying to rip on him Bill, just pointing out that is it a waist of your time to argue with him.

No, I don't mind having the discussion, and seeing things froma different perspective. And, in all fairness, a forcosure rate of 1.8% (which is what it was in NJ in 2008, according to the link in Post # 217) is still pretty high. I tend to not see so much of that, as Somerset County has a very low forclosure rate.

[sholden]

Originally Posted by Bill Keegan

Yep, saw that, thanks. I was looking at more recent month over month stats, which show a DECREASE in filings in NJ.

month over month stats are always meaningless. Especially when you have a President change, banks spending their time laying people off instead of foreclosing on people, and everything up in the air with respect to just what the government is going to do next.

Not to mention that on 1/9 Corzine signed the Mortgage Stabilization and Relief Act, almost a month after it passed and hence in banks will have been waiting to see what happens with it for the last little while.

[elflord1973]

Originally Posted by JamesBoyer

And what part of the market is that?

We are seeing first time home buyer homes selling, I was just going though looking at the listings for a few homes that would be buyers of mine liked last month and noticed 3 of them are now under contract. All 3 of then would fall into a segment I would say is above the first time home buyer segment.

Do you have a point ? Or are you just expressing agreement with my argument, while trying very hard not to sound too agreeable ?

[theoakman]

Bill, you have to take everything theoakman says with a grain of salt. he was screaming that foreclosures had doubled a week or two ago, neglecting to point out they doubled from 1% to 2%, and then when called on it tried to claim such a move would be catastrophic. As if such a move would bring on anything like what 20% and 30% foreclosure rates are doing in parts of south florida and Arizona and parts of California.

Not trying to rip on him Bill, just pointing out that is it a waist of your time to argue with him.

Originally Posted by Bill Keegan

No, I don't mind having the discussion, and seeing things froma different perspective. And, in all fairness, a forcosure rate of 1.8% (which is what it was in NJ in 2008, according to the link in Post # 217) is still pretty high. I tend to not see so much of that, as Somerset County has a very low forclosure rate.

this is pure slander from James. Just because the number is 1 or 2 doesn't mean it's low. I posted a chart showing the the historical high for foreclosure rates for a 50 year period in this country was 1%. So, the worst case scenario was historically 1%. When your foreclosure rate is twice what the worst case scenario was for 50 years, it is significant, and unfortunately, it has shown no shows of slowing. In fact, James is the one who is being manipulative with his interpretation by stating that the rate is low. In fact, he claimed that it would have to be at 25% for it to matter. Not for nothing, but a foreclosure rate of 25% is a death sentence to a community. 2% is really bad, meaning 1 out of every 50 families is losing their home. I'm sure we all know more than 50 people. What happens if it goes to 3 or 4%? How many of our friends and family will lose their homes? I'm not manipulating any statistics. Increasing foreclosure rates put downward pressure on home prices. At a time when sales have already been decreasing, this all points to lower home prices. It's that simple. How low can they go? I don't know.

[theoakman]

Originally Posted by Bill Keegan

Yep, saw that, thanks. I was looking at more recent month over month stats, which show a DECREASE in filings in NJ.

I would expect a temporary decrease because Fannie put a moratorium on foreclosures.

[Bill Keegan]

Originally Posted by theoakman

I would expect a temporary decrease because Fannie put a moratorium on foreclosures.

The moratorium was on forclosure SALES, preventing the banks from actually taking the property. The chart used is from RealtyTrac, which reports all forclosure related filings, including (and clearly this is the highest one) Lis Pendens. Basically, You've missed enough payments, pay up now or we'll have to go through the legal process of taking the house. Those filings were still happening, because the banks don't want to have to start anew once the moratorium was lifted.

[JamesBoyer]

Originally Posted by elflord1973

Do you have a point ? Or are you just expressing agreement with my argument, while trying very hard not to sound too agreeable ?

You made a statment as if you have some sort of cristal ball that displays the deepest darkest secrets of the real estate markets. The markets don't seem to be frozen. They are a little slow but not frozen.

The first time home buyer segment is moving.

The 3 homes I was commenting on as being under contract were homes I showed last month to buyers who yes will be buying, but just for various reasons could not pull the trigger yet. Basically though I did not say it was safe to hold off on writing a offer to any of these buyers, what I was describing is a situation of if a home buyer likes something enough to want to keep an eye on it, another home buyer will come along and buy it!

Frozen market, Not!!

[JamesBoyer]

Originally Posted by theoakman

this is pure slander from James. Just because the number is 1 or 2 doesn't mean it's low. I posted a chart showing the the historical high for foreclosure rates for a 50 year period in this country was 1%. So, the worst case scenario was historically 1%. When your foreclosure rate is twice what the worst case scenario was for 50 years, it is significant, and unfortunately, it has shown no shows of slowing. In fact, James is the one who is being manipulative with his interpretation by stating that the rate is low. In fact, he claimed that it would have to be at 25% for it to matter. Not for nothing, but a foreclosure rate of 25% is a death sentence to a community. 2% is really bad, meaning 1 out of every 50 families is losing their home. I'm sure we all know more than 50 people. What happens if it goes to 3 or 4%? How many of our friends and family will lose their homes? I'm not manipulating any statistics. Increasing foreclosure rates put downward pressure on home prices. At a time when sales have already been decreasing, this all points to lower home prices. It's that simple. How low can they go? I don't know.

you know darn well I did not say 2% was all peaches and cream. And don't go screaming slander now.

What I said was that 2% was not a disaster. In fact what I would guess is that many of them are former short sales that never happened.

by the way I looked up Morris County 1 in 1738 homes in foreclosure that is a 0.000575374% rate. Kind of explains what we see out here.

[elflord1973]

Originally Posted by JamesBoyer

You made a statment as if you have some sort of cristal ball that displays the deepest darkest secrets of the real estate markets. The markets don't seem to be frozen. They are a little slow but not frozen.

The numbers say they are not just a little slow, they are really slow. The sales pairs in the Case Shiller numbers are less than 50% of their peaks around 2006-2007.

The first time home buyer segment is moving.

Yes, you mentioned this before, and you mentioned that this is where most of the sales are now. I pointed out that this is consistent with my theory about the state of the market --

Which again, is as follows: buyers in "trader-up" market are also sellers, and also not forced sales. So if the market is in such a state that no-one wants to sell, there is no "trader-up" market. That's a simplification, but you get the idea.

[theoakman]

Originally Posted by JamesBoyer

you know darn well I did not say 2% was all peaches and cream. And don't go screaming slander now.

What I said was that 2% was not a disaster. In fact what I would guess is that many of them are former short sales that never happened.

by the way I looked up Morris County 1 in 1738 homes in foreclosure that is a 0.000575374% rate. Kind of explains what we see out here.

Don't go screaming slander now? I called you out on it in almost every thread. It was actually kind of funny. You even said something to the effect of "I am not going to slander you" but you followed directly with an insult. James, I haven't even resorted to personally attacking you because I disagree with your opinions, but seriously, you are acting like a 5 year old when you can't have a civil conversation. I can easily take a negative position on you based on the fact that your salary depends on this market, but I don't. I've given you the benefit of the doubt that you really do believe the stuff you say. However, when you start attacking someone's character, you lose my respect, and it's pretty obvious you've lost the respect of a lot of posters on this board. I assume you are on this board to attract possible clients in your area. I would suggest, for your own business, that you make sure you don't come off as a jerk because that's what you do come off as in my opinion.