So is the sale of my home hopeless? (Madison: sales, foreclosures)

[Lusitan]

Originally Posted by JamesBoyer

between Morris Essex & Union Counties as of this minute there are 1266 homes under contract. Clearly the market is slow right now, but just as clear there are many people buying homes and getting great deals.

Let's reserve judgment until this time next year on the issue of whether anyone buying at today's prices is getting a "great deal".

[JamesBoyer]

Originally Posted by Lusitan

Let's reserve judgment until this time next year on the issue of whether anyone buying at today's prices is getting a "great deal".

And just how will you make your judgment Lusitan? What is a great deal to one buyer may not be to someone else. I cannot imagine what would satisfy you though so I will not be holding my breath.

[Delphi]

RE will not return to 2006 highs in at least 10 years,

Look at japan as an example. The market here could potentially see the same end result, as the last 10+ years were driven on consumer credit, which will not return for at least 1 generation or so, until those burned by this experience begin to die off sooner.

[JamesBoyer]

Originally Posted by Delphi

RE will not return to 2006 highs in at least 10 years,

Look at japan as an example. The market here could potentially see the same end result, as the last 10+ years were driven on consumer credit, which will not return for at least 1 generation or so, until those burned by this experience begin to die off sooner.

That comment makes me wonder what sort of inside information you might have. No qualification, no in my opinions.

Are we living in Japan during the 1990's? Is the situation the same? Is the responce to the situation the same? Is the US population likely to react in the same ways as the population and culture of Japan reacted?

In looking at all the questions I raised and I am sure there are many others as well, I have to wonder if you might be a economist working for Moody's or something?

Now I am not making any price predictions in this comment, but do you know how long a generation is? Even if the average price appreciation were only 2% over the next 10 years, we would be back at 2006 prices in about 8 years. Through in some inflation from the government re-inflating program going on right now and that time frame is likely to be sorter.

[Delphi]

Originally Posted by JamesBoyer

That comment makes me wonder what sort of inside information you might have. No qualification, no in my opinions.

Are we living in Japan during the 1990's? Is the situation the same? Is the responce to the situation the same? Is the US population likely to react in the same ways as the population and culture of Japan reacted?

In looking at all the questions I raised and I am sure there are many others as well, I have to wonder if you might be a economist working for Moody's or something?

Now I am not making any price predictions in this comment, but do you know how long a generation is? Even if the average price appreciation were only 2% over the next 10 years, we would be back at 2006 prices in about 8 years. Through in some inflation from the government re-inflating program going on right now and that time frame is likely to be sorter.

If you take inflation into account, it will take more than 10 yrs to hit 2006 level. The fed current response to the crisis will create more crisis in 2 hrs from now. 2% increase in price is eaten away by current 4% inflation. And I am pretty sure inflation will be bad in 2-4 yrs from now.

No I am not an economist. But I understand fundamentals and unlike agents, I am not a cheerleader. Do you remember x-NAR president David L (Baghdad Deve)

[JamesBoyer]

Originally Posted by Delphi

If you take inflation into account, it will take more than 10 yrs to hit 2006 level. The fed current response to the crisis will create more crisis in 2 hrs from now. 2% increase in price is eaten away by current 4% inflation. And I am pretty sure inflation will be bad in 2-4 yrs from now.

No I am not an economist. But I understand fundamentals and unlike agents, I am not a cheerleader. Do you remember x-NAR president David L (Baghdad Deve)

Over time real estate will likely move with inflation + a certain amount of premium. What do 2006 prices have to do with anything anyway. Anyone purchasing now is not paying 2006 prices, they are paying 2009 prices.

Other people have made affordability arguments, and they are moderately write in a world where people have not ever owned a home before. But that is not the case for a good share of the people out there. I will admit I could not have afforded my current house, but for the fact that I had owned and lived in 3 other homes before it. In each case there was a certain amount of appreciation, as well as sweat equity. Then sold and moved to a bigger more expensive home and repeated. Many have done the same. In knowing my own neighborhood most of the people have been in their homes long enough to have 300% or more gains in their homes should the choose to sell today. In other words they have been here a long time.

[NatasNJ]

Originally Posted by JamesBoyer

And just how will you make your judgment Lusitan? What is a great deal to one buyer may not be to someone else. I cannot imagine what would satisfy you though so I will not be holding my breath.

I would a fair comparison is if you bought the same house today and in 1/2010 and could get it in 2010 for cheaper than it was not wise to buy today. Hence a better deal. Great deal is more subjective but a few % difference adds up.

[Lusitan]

Originally Posted by JamesBoyer

And just how will you make your judgment Lusitan? What is a great deal to one buyer may not be to someone else. I cannot imagine what would satisfy you though so I will not be holding my breath.

You're the one who said some people are out there buying now and getting "great deals" -- so what's your basis for saying that some people are getting great deals?

As to how I would make my judgment, that's pretty simple: I'll compare the price of a house on the market today with the price of an equivalent house on the market next year. If the price has gone down, it clearly was not a "great deal" today. It may have been a "not as bad as it could have been deal" but it surely would be absurd to call it a "great deal". It's never a great deal to buy something today that you can buy for substantially less in a matter of months.

[JamesBoyer]

Originally Posted by NatasNJ

I would a fair comparison is if you bought the same house today and in 1/2010 and could get it in 2010 for cheaper than it was not wise to buy today. Hence a better deal. Great deal is more subjective but a few % difference adds up.

And if in order to buy that same house in Jan 2010 you have to pay a 1% higher mortgage interest rate equaling a 9% higher mortgage payment per 100K borrowed is it still a better deal later than sooner?

There are more factors than just price!

[JamesBoyer]

Originally Posted by Lusitan

You're the one who said some people are out there buying now and getting "great deals" -- so what's your basis for saying that some people are getting great deals?

As to how I would make my judgment, that's pretty simple: I'll compare the price of a house on the market today with the price of an equivalent house on the market next year. If the price has gone down, it clearly was not a "great deal" today. It may have been a "not as bad as it could have been deal" but it surely would be absurd to call it a "great deal". It's never a great deal to buy something today that you can buy for substantially less in a matter of months.

your comparison is to simple, and reflective of your lack of experence and knolledge of how things work overall.