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These population numbers are very unrealistic. Except for this past decade where it gained like 4,000 people Newark has been loosing population for 40 years what makes you think it will grow and grow to over 400,000 theres no way. Jersey City will and can grow by a decent amount. Elizabeth will grow at a slow rate same with Paterson.
2050 Estimations:
Newark: 300,000
Jersey City: 300,000
Elizabeth: 145,000
Paterson: 170,000
For some reason, I think Newark will be mostly gentrified in 30 years. I know people are going to laugh at this, but so much of Newark reminds me of NYC of the 70s/80s. Jersey City will probably be built out first but once prices there get equivalent to Hoboken, you'll see some good development in Newark (once the economy rebounds at least).
I'm also expecting to see a huge growth in New Brunswick, probably to where it's the third or fourth largest city in the state.
State Population. State's economy recovers fully by 2016, and continues only slightly below average growth compared to rest of nation. Becomes more Latino and Asian:
2010: 8,791,000
2020: 9,055,000
2030: 9,523,000
2040: 9,950,000
2050: 10,320,000
Jersey City redevelopment probably spreads west to the Hackensack Waterfront and the Heights, but many lower-income residents may leave. Since 2000, Downtown has grown by 20%, but West Side and Bergen Lafayette lost. I think the trajectory is probably something like this. It may be undercounted now as well.:
Newark is bogged down by its two and half poor wards. The Ironbound is thriving, and I believe the North will be redeveloped. However, the poor wards won't see improvements till the 2030's, so I see this trajectory:
I believe Bayonne will grow from about 63,000 now to 85,000 by 2050, because of overspill from growing JC and Elizabeth. I think some suburbs may have fewer people at mid-century than today.
Location: The place where the road & the sky collide
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dhanu86
I'd say the biggest ones will be the 5 biggest ones with land which is burlington, ocean, morris, atlantic and monmouth... assuming the counties by the shore aren't under water.
Can't be. You forgot about the Pine Barrens being protected land.
State Population. State's economy recovers fully by 2016, and continues only slightly below average growth compared to rest of nation. Becomes more Latino and Asian:
2010: 8,791,000
2020: 9,055,000
2030: 9,523,000
2040: 9,950,000
2050: 10,320,000
Jersey City redevelopment probably spreads west to the Hackensack Waterfront and the Heights, but many lower-income residents may leave. Since 2000, Downtown has grown by 20%, but West Side and Bergen Lafayette lost. I think the trajectory is probably something like this. It may be undercounted now as well.:
Newark is bogged down by its two and half poor wards. The Ironbound is thriving, and I believe the North will be redeveloped. However, the poor wards won't see improvements till the 2030's, so I see this trajectory:
I believe Bayonne will grow from about 63,000 now to 85,000 by 2050, because of overspill from growing JC and Elizabeth. I think some suburbs may have fewer people at mid-century than today.
I don't think Paterson will shrink , it has a growing Arab and Indian population , and a few Rail projects will connect it to other parts of Urban Jersey like Hackensack , Newark and a New Airport line to Stewart Airport. 70% of the Northeastern US population will live in an Urban County or City by 2050.....
Quote:
Originally Posted by southbound_295
Can't be. You forgot about the Pine Barrens being protected land.
By 2050 , the only green spaces left in this region will be protected swaths like the Pine Barrens or the Meadowlands...
JC may certainly overtake Newark, but at the same time, folks have been saying that for the last decade. I think JC/Newark may end up like Edison/Woodbridge (similar populations)
(Maybe they'll play population tennis where one city is bigger one year, and the other the next, the way Edison/Woodbridge did for a couple of years)
This is absolutely not a knock for JC, but I don't think it has the infrastructure to support over 400k in 40 years w/o some kind of rush in infrastructure build-up (it takes NJTrans years to get rail projects off the ground) and JC's is pretty dense now. Not that there isn't room to grow, but I don't think there's room for the numbers you mention (a difference of over 150k, which is a lot even for 40 years)
I mean it's 15 sq mi of land and LSP is nearly 2 sq mi.
As it stands, I think JC's population ceiling is around 350k and Newark's is closer to 450k
With all that said, you're right: anything can happen.
Dead on
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