Why is Everyone Skipping Over Sussex and Warren Counties Right into NEPA? (Paterson: transplants, real estate)

[ScranBarre]

I've been doing some research into the latest estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, and I must admit I was shocked to see that the Poconos are growing much more quickly than Northwestern New Jersey. Monroe and Pike County, PA continue to be amongst the nation's fastest-growing counties while that growth is now spilling up into the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area, which also grew slightly from 2005-2006 according to these government estimates. Meanwhile, NW NJ was likewise growing, but not nearly as rapidly as just across the Delaware River in NEPA. Why? I've been to both Sussex and Warren Counties before, and I've found them to be quite liveable areas. Most are moving to NEPA to "get more elbow room," yet I found miles of woodlands and open space in NW NJ. Some are moving to NEPA to find "lower housing prices," yet a recent study of mine shows that housing prices between NEPA and NW NJ truly aren't much different. With how much new transplants to the Poconos kvetch about the "heinous commutes," why aren't they instead reducing their commutes by a half-hour or so by instead moving to Sussex/Warren Counties?

Here's some of the analysis I did into the government estimates:

Monroe County, PA: 2000 Pop. 138,687; 2006 Pop. 165,685===> Increase of 26,998
Pike County, PA: 2000 Pop. 46,302; 2006 Pop. 58,195===> Increase of 11,893
Sussex County, NJ: 2000 Pop. 144,166; 2006 Pop. 153,384===> Increase of 9,218
Warren County, NJ: 2000 Pop. 102,437; 2006 Pop. 110,919===> Increase of 8,482

As you can see, during the period of 2000-2006, it is estimated that the population of Monroe/Pike Counties in NEPA grew by 38,891 while the population of Sussex/Warren Counties in NW NJ grew by only 17,700 during that same period, or less than half as much.

What's so undesirable about NW NJ that has everyone crossing the river into NEPA? This is by no means meant to spark outrage or anything. I just love studying demographic trends, and I find it odd that NE NJ is very urban, NE PA is becoming a giant suburb, yet there's this pocket in between of NW NJ that still remains very sparse. If people are whining and crying about being "forced" to commute daily from PA to NYC, then why can't they instead move to NW NJ and reduce those commute times? Is there something I'm missing?

[apvbguy]

Originally Posted by ScrantonWilkesBarre

I've been doing some research into the latest estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, and I must admit I was shocked to see that the Poconos are growing much more quickly than Northwestern New Jersey. Monroe and Pike County, PA continue to be amongst the nation's fastest-growing counties while that growth is now spilling up into the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area, which also grew slightly from 2005-2006 according to these government estimates. Meanwhile, NW NJ was likewise growing, but not nearly as rapidly as just across the Delaware River in NEPA. Why? I've been to both Sussex and Warren Counties before, and I've found them to be quite liveable areas. Most are moving to NEPA to "get more elbow room," yet I found miles of woodlands and open space in NW NJ. Some are moving to NEPA to find "lower housing prices," yet a recent study of mine shows that housing prices between NEPA and NW NJ truly aren't much different. With how much new transplants to the Poconos kvetch about the "heinous commutes," why aren't they instead reducing their commutes by a half-hour or so by instead moving to Sussex/Warren Counties?

Here's some of the analysis I did into the government estimates:

Monroe County, PA: 2000 Pop. 138,687; 2006 Pop. 165,685===> Increase of 26,998
Pike County, PA: 2000 Pop. 46,302; 2006 Pop. 58,195===> Increase of 11,893
Sussex County, NJ: 2000 Pop. 144,166; 2006 Pop. 153,384===> Increase of 9,218
Warren County, NJ: 2000 Pop. 102,437; 2006 Pop. 110,919===> Increase of 8,482

As you can see, during the period of 2000-2006, it is estimated that the population of Monroe/Pike Counties in NEPA grew by 38,891 while the population of Sussex/Warren Counties in NW NJ grew by only 17,700 during that same period, or less than half as much.

What's so undesirable about NW NJ that has everyone crossing the river into NEPA? This is by no means meant to spark outrage or anything. I just love studying demographic trends, and I find it odd that NE NJ is very urban, NE PA is becoming a giant suburb, yet there's this pocket in between of NW NJ that still remains very sparse. If people are whining and crying about being "forced" to commute daily from PA to NYC, then why can't they instead move to NW NJ and reduce those commute times? Is there something I'm missing?

taxes taxes taxes

[newjerseybt]

bingo, bingo, bingo

[JerZ]

Definitely taxes, but my first husband and I made that mistake and got bitten pretty hard by the town of Reeders, PA. Bear in mind this was 10 years ago, though. So I'm not sure how things sit now with the Poconos in general.

I begged my husband to let us move to, I don't know, Lake Hopatcong or something (from Bergen County) to an already-built house, but he had dreams of building his own house. So we had the place built for us in Reeders (exit...trying to remember...46 maybe off Rte. 80? God, I never thought I'd forget details like this). He commuted to Paterson and I worked in Delaware Water Gap.

Well, in two years our taxes nearly doubled! Granted, they were still much lower than Bergen County taxes would have been, especially considering that we had a little bit of property (1.5 acres...not a big house; 1700 sq. ft.). But still. That was a bit of a slap in the face. The reason was that people were indeed all skipping over western New Jersey, just like we were, and heading out straight to the Poconos for the "incredibly cheap housing" and "incredibly low taxes".

So a word to the wise would be, if you're planning on doing the Poconos thang, find out from the town what public building is in the works for the next five years (especially schools), whether there is any plan for public transportation to be brought in or connected in or near your area, and how many developers have already bought property in your area so you can at least get a vague idea of whether or not your taxes might, well, double.

I mean depending upon what town you wind up in, you might actually not be saving anywhere near as much in taxes v. western NJ as you would think.

Just be careful. I will say this, though. The Poconos are BEAUTIFUL. Oh my.

[DowntownJerseyCity]

Paul, I am going to go off topic for a moment. I am really suprised and saddened that you think NJ folks are mean to people from PA as was quoted on the other post. My only gripe is how PA drivers deal with the roads here. Left lane is to pass (and do it quickly) then get back over! It's not rocket science. Left to pass, right to travel, not left to pass then slow down and making everyone go right to dangerously overtake the slower vehicle.

As far as the rude reputation we get, I believe it's mostly over-hyped, but I will admit, I have no patience for ex-residents coming on here and trashing this place. You didn't like it? Well I'm happy you left to better your life, now go enjoy your state.

Ok, now back on topic...

It's the taxes, but if my job was still in Manhattan I would deal with the high taxes rather than that hellish commute. Risking my health and sanity is not worth a few thousand dollars.

[ScranBarre]

Thanks. I had assumed taxes were probably the primary factor driving everyone across the Delaware River, but now that taxes are beginning to spike in Monroe and Pike Counties to pay for all of the new schools, expanded police forces, wider roads, etc. I would assume the growth into the Poconos might begin to cool off, and the growth into NW NJ might start to pick up pace.

I've heard rumors that a statewide reassessment is about to occur in NJ. Is this true? If this causes a spike in property taxes, then we might just see another fresh wave of newcomers in the region. Hell, I wish more of them would move up an extra half-hour to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre/Hazleton so that they could live in a more affordable area and be able to find jobs much closer to their homes to put less of a strain onto their families.

[tahiti]

Originally Posted by ScrantonWilkesBarre

Thanks. I had assumed taxes were probably the primary factor driving everyone across the Delaware River, but now that taxes are beginning to spike in Monroe and Pike Counties to pay for all of the new schools, expanded police forces, wider roads, etc. I would assume the growth into the Poconos might begin to cool off, and the growth into NW NJ might start to pick up pace.

I've heard rumors that a statewide reassessment is about to occur in NJ. Is this true? If this causes a spike in property taxes, then we might just see another fresh wave of newcomers in the region. Hell, I wish more of them would move up an extra half-hour to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre/Hazleton so that they could live in a more affordable area and be able to find jobs much closer to their homes to put less of a strain onto their families.

this is done by township/municipality, not statewide.

have you posed this question on the NEPA board?

btw - it sounds like to me red bank would be a good choice for you (you mentioned this previously). there's still reasonable real estate, and taxes are 'normal', even from PA standards.

[cyntmac]

Obviously it's the cost of living and the taxes. The zoning laws are very strict in Northwestern Nj as well. (from what I hear)
This question has been posed here before with the same answer given.

[emanon]

Taxes and Auto insurance are much higher in NJ. But it is probably another 1/2 hour added to you already too long commute to central NJ or NYC for work.
For those of you who think sitting in traffic for 10hrs. per week (that's just traffic time)added to your actual moving time is worth the cheaper housing and taxes than I say more power to you.

For me a long time ago I figured that I only had so many heartbeats and did I want to use them up going to and from work or do I use them at home with the family?

E

[stmaarten]

Originally Posted by apvbguy

taxes taxes taxes

Originally Posted by newjerseybt

bingo, bingo, bingo

ditto, ditto, ditto.

If the tax hikes in Sussex weren't so extreme every, single year, coupled with the impending reassessment for many towns, I'd still be living there!
It's one of the most beautiful areas in NJ, IMO.