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Old 11-21-2012, 11:12 AM
 
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What was Sandy's impact in NJ in terms of Obama's popularity here and influence on the choice of who they voted on November 6?

I am curious to know.
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Old 11-21-2012, 11:34 AM
 
Location: a swanky suburb in my fancy pants
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The talk I am hearing is that Sandy won the election for Obama. Not in NJ of course because he would have carried NJ no matter what. It was the photo opps he did with Christy that won him the swing states by fooling people into believing he was on top of things and ready to help. He didn't fool as many people in NY but again he had NY in his pocket anyway so no need to waste time there.
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Old 11-21-2012, 11:46 AM
 
286 posts, read 307,267 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bryson662001 View Post
The talk I am hearing is that Sandy won the election for Obama. Not in NJ of course because he would have carried NJ no matter what. It was the photo opps he did with Christy that won him the swing states by fooling people into believing he was on top of things and ready to help. He didn't fool as many people in NY but again he had NY in his pocket anyway so no need to waste time there.
This.

I actually do not believe he would have done all of that if not for the election a week later.

He fooled many people, apparently.
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Old 11-21-2012, 12:04 PM
 
Location: Randolph, NJ
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Quote:
Originally Posted by h1478971 View Post
What was Sandy's impact in NJ in terms of Obama's popularity here and influence on the choice of who they voted on November 6?

I am curious to know.
Here? Impact was meaningless since he was going to easily win NJ anyway.

On the other hand, Christie really improved his standing among many in the state and set himself up well for re-eelection.
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Old 11-21-2012, 12:45 PM
 
Location: Jersey City
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I really don't think it had that much of an impact nationally. It certainly didn't hurt. But if you look at 538, the tracking polls seemed to show that after that first debate nosedive, Obama was in a slow but steady climb back up for 2-3 weeks before the election.

I don't think the hurricane flipped all of the battleground states. Obama had a slight advantage in most for weeks at least. Romney may have had a shot at VA or CO in the final week but I don't think the outcome would've been different but for Sandy.
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Old 11-21-2012, 01:18 PM
 
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The numbers guy Nate Silver, who predicted every state correctly, said it may have had a 1% pro-Obama effect, but not enough to swing it either way.

According to Mitt (who's that?) it was all the free stuff.
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Old 11-21-2012, 01:23 PM
 
Location: Northern NJ
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Originally Posted by HalfFull View Post
Here? Impact was meaningless since he was going to easily win NJ anyway.

On the other hand, Christie really improved his standing among many in the state and set himself up well for re-eelection.
Definitely. And I really think he has softened his hard image considerably. His speeches were to the point - of poignance - at times. With some good use of humor also. I think he is a cinch to be re-elected at this point, if he wants the job. It wouldn't surprise me if a few teachers even voted for him.
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Old 11-21-2012, 01:29 PM
 
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He even managed to p*ss off some conservatives by being "soft" on Obama. I guess it worked. His popularity is up and Mitt...who's Mitt again?
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Old 11-21-2012, 02:20 PM
PDD
 
Location: The Sand Hills of NC
8,776 posts, read 12,657,162 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bryson662001 View Post
The talk I am hearing is that Sandy won the election for Obama. Not in NJ of course because he would have carried NJ no matter what. It was the photo opps he did with Christy that won him the swing states by fooling people into believing he was on top of things and ready to help. He didn't fool as many people in NY but again he had NY in his pocket anyway so no need to waste time there.
The talk you heard was from others on the losing side who are looking for any excuse why your guy didn't win.

The big winner was Christy who is getting a lot of kudos from Democrats, that's what I've heard.
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Old 11-21-2012, 05:21 PM
 
11,662 posts, read 13,496,963 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lammius View Post
I really don't think it had that much of an impact nationally. It certainly didn't hurt. But if you look at 538, the tracking polls seemed to show that after that first debate nosedive, Obama was in a slow but steady climb back up for 2-3 weeks before the election.

I don't think the hurricane flipped all of the battleground states. Obama had a slight advantage in most for weeks at least. Romney may have had a shot at VA or CO in the final week but I don't think the outcome would've been different but for Sandy.


Those who were prescient enough to monitor the highly-accurate 538.com blog for that last couple of months were not surprised by the election results.
Of course, that didn't include the likes of Sheldon Adelson, the Koch Brothers, Donald Trump, and others who were convinced by Karl Rove to ignore credible poll numbers and to continue to throw huge amounts of money behind the guy who was destined to lose.

While Obama might have picked up a small percentage gain as a result of the super-storm, the reality is that a large percentage of the electorate divined that Mitt Romney has contempt for those who are less fortunate than he and his minions. That fatal "47%" statement and Mitt's post-election whining are in complete convergence on that point.

When the next election cycle takes place, I urge you to monitor the NYT's 538 blog.
Nate Silver's projections--beginning several weeks prior to the election--were so accurate as to be almost spooky.

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