The Bell Curve of Doom? Shiller Price Index (mortgage, equity)

[kalim2008]

I read this pretty shocking comment from this blog, citing a report out.

» The “Bell Curve Of Doom” Is Ringing For Recent Home Purchasers - Housing Doom

According to the Case-Shiller Composite 20 (metro areas) index, the price of an existing home peaked in July 2006. From the July 2006 peak through January 2008, the price of a representative home has fallen 12.5%. To put this in perspective, if someone had purchased an existing home in July 2006 for $1 million with a downpayment of $125 thousand (12.5% of the purchase price), that someone’s equity in the house as of January 2008 would be approximately zero. Unless there was a radical reversal in the direction of home price changes in February, that July 2006 home purchaser was upside down – i.e., had negative equity in his or her home. The Case-Shiller home price index represents a bell curve of doom for recent home purchasers and home lenders.

[RobRiguez]

This happens more often than not in some markets. (Nyc, London, Tokyo) Its just now hitting everyone.

[SeeSaw]

New Jersey Real Estate Report
Here is another page you can look at from underneth your bed.

Or if you really look at NJ chart the board where you posted that crap you'll see nothing to fear but fear itself:

What's this?
Close Zindex The Zindex® is Zillow's Housing Index and is the median Zestimate® for a given geographic area on a given day.
New Jersey Real Estate Comparison



Zindex® (Median Zestimate®)New Jersey:$356,580:$227,420

• New Jersey

Historical Value Trends % Cumulative % Annualized

Past:New Jersey1 year-1.2% -3.1% 5 years50.3% 38.4% 10 years139% 108% 1 year-1.2% -3.1% 5 years8.5% 6.7% 10 years9.1% 7.6%



I can't sleep at night knowing I now don't have that 1.2% of my home value. Scare on!

[Ourdreamhouse]

Historical Value Trends % Cumulative % Annualized

Past:New Jersey1 year-1.2% -3.1% 5 years50.3% 38.4% 10 years139% 108% 1 year-1.2% -3.1% 5 years8.5% 6.7% 10 years9.1% 7.6%



I can't sleep at night knowing I now don't have that 1.2% of my home value. Scare on!

In case you haven't been paying attention, Zillow may not be the most accurate source of data.

I don't think anyone doubts that the net change in prices over 5 and 10 years has been positive. In fact, so much so that it became the problem.

The question is: which way from here? No one knows for sure, but if you think prices are going up anytime soon, you're in a very, very small minority.

[CuCullin]

Originally Posted by Ourdreamhouse

The question is: which way from here? No one knows for sure, but if you think prices are going up anytime soon, you're in a very, very small minority.

Mine did! But I fall into the category of the overwhelming minority thats for sure...

But these indexes are pointless, except in terms of short term potential. Like any other economic adjustment, prices will decline, consumer confidence (in their own wallets, in the case) will drop, then people will start to feel like its ok, they have enough to get by....

And people will begin to buy products again. And then, people will want a new place to put these products in, fueled by lower housing costs, which will in turn cause an increase in prices, and then a resurgence of equity. This bell curve of "doom" is some more media hype to get readers. It is what it is.

Will someone who bought at the peak in 2005, with a 100% mortgage, going to come out on top? Probably not. It would be the same as if you bought Enron at $90, Priceline at $104, or Yahoo at $115 - a bad financial decision made based on emotions and hype.

This index? Just another example of hype. Doom, gloom, and the destruction of the US economy.... which has survived far worse than this housing boom. *shrug*, I'm not worried.

[SPNARD1]

I think any website with the address housingdoom is overly bearish on the housing market.

Is it in a slump? Yes!

Are we seeing a huge correction in pricing in Northern NJ? I really don't think so at all!

It basically comes down to supply and demand, what's helping NJ stay somewhat a float is that were the most densely populated state, close proximity to NYC etc... supply and demand!


I think if you're a homebuyer today, be cautious of course, but there's some deals to be had..

To quote the saturday nite live skit on the stock market
" The market goes up, the market goes down...but overall, the market goes up"