Predictions for 2009 NJ Real Estate Market? (short sale, mortgages, lenders)

[Giantone]

Originally Posted by apvbguy

your opinions are tainted by being in LV which is one of the biggest disaster areas for real estate, NJ is nowhere near being in the same boat as you are out there.

LOL................,ok I'll behave.

[MaverickDD]

Originally Posted by skw22

We may have to relocate to philadelphia and were considering the southern jersey area. But I am very nervous about buying (in philly or jersey) with the bad market we are all in. We have to stay 3-4 years while here (philly). I am just not sure what to do, I would hate to buy and then the next two years we lose again. We will currently be taking a loss here in Ohio to come there.

The solution is to rent under a long-term lease with an option to buy. Often times, some of the rent will be credited to the purchase price if you do indeed buy at a later time.

If you feel that the market will continue its collapse, your best bet would be to not lock in a purchase price but allow it to be determined in the future based on future appraisals.

[kalim2008]

Originally Posted by emanon

Perhaps you could be more specific as to when the sky is actually going to fall.

March 12, 2009.

At 6 pm, to be exact, give or take a couple minutes.

[Liz555]

It's so hard to tell. I'm an optimist, I'm hoping we will see some kind of positive change by this time in 2009. From what I've read, I agree with a former poster who said NJ (& the Northeast in general) has fared better through all of this than most of the country. We were the last effected & are reporting small growths in the past quarter compared to declines or stagnation in the rest of the country. She was also correct in stating that modest homes seem to be the ones that are the ones moving at the moment. The higher ticket homes are the ones struggling the hardest right now. I think 1st time home buyers are being wise & running out & taking advantage of the low interest rates & low home values so the smaller 2/3 bed homes are actaully selling. After all that I will consult my Magic 8 Ball for the right answer....yep it said "Not Likely"...lol

[Gdelemschl]

AJGIANTS-wrote>> "... until prices get to where they were at the beginning of the boom its not over. .."

In a severe-recession scenario, they can even continue sliding down further
(much lower than the point at the beginning of the boom), as it can then be
hard to stop a crashing-down train. Have a look at this:

5 Reasons Why The Housing Market Will Continue to Decline Until 2010:
Extrapolating The Free Ride Bird and Dancing with the Housing Pied Piper.

[JERSEY MAN]

Another 10-15 percent lower then level off in years 2010,2011 with gradual gains yearly of 3 to 4 percent.

[JamesBoyer]

In my opinion and that is all it is, as I do not have a Cristal ball. 2009 will be variable, what does that mean? Well some areas will do horrible, some areas will be flat.

If you are talking about the north western part of the state or the central part of the state, or any of the out lying areas where it is not exactly easy to get into the major cities, the market will be horrible possibly another 15% down.

If you are talking about areas which are considered a easy commute into the city, have good schools, and are generally nice communities, prices will likely be flat to only slightly down depending on the town.

In all cases it seems like volumes will be down, which means many of the REALTORS who are out there now, and new REALTORS will continue to feel like the market is getting much worse, and likely 50% to 60% more of them probably need to get out of the industry. (NAR I am sure will not like that reality).

The kicker here is that interest rates are likely will continue to drift higher and for every 1% rise in mortgage interest rates, the affordability of homes comes down 9% so even if prices came down 9% in a area but interest rates were 1% higher it would make no difference in a new buyers actual home payment over buying today.

For home sellers in 2008 and 2009 and really any market that is not a all out sellers market, it it highly important to price your home aggressively (this means below your real competition, presenting real value) The other thing that is very very important is for people to stop thinking that all REALTORS are the same, so many times even today, when someone wants to sell their home, they call this friend, relative, or just the call the local real estate office and hire the first REALTOR who answers the phone. Let me be blunt, if you have not interviewed at least 4 REALTORS before signing a listing agreement you have not done your job as a informed home seller ready for success.

Just my very educated opinions though as I am constantly combing though my Multiple Listing Service.

[todd72173]

2009 - will tank
2010- will tank further
2011 + who knows -- good luck!

[UrbanQuest]

Originally Posted by kalim2008

Here's something to think about long term:
Aging Boomers could burst housing bubble

The common perception among economists is that the current housing bubble will be a relatively short-term affair that should see a return to normal within the next few years.
But according to a study by two University of Southern California researchers, a bubble of even more monumental proportions lies just ahead. They call it the "generational housing bubble," and maintain that it will be fueled by the same Baby Boomers who have been bidding up prices since 1970 as they moved higher and higher on the housing ladder.
Now, though, the 78 million Boomers are about to enter the years when people tend to become sellers rather than buyers. And as a result, they expect "many more homes (will be) available for sale than there are buyers for them."
According to the researchers, the tilt toward age groups that are net sellers of housing is unprecedented. "The Baby Boom generation was born over a period of 18 years, and once its sell-off commences, it could dominate the housing market for up to two decades," they say.
As the elderly become more numerous than the young, and as they shift into seller mode, the researchers postulate, the market shift could come quickly after 2010, causing housing prices to fall.
Even if housing prices remain flat, the researchers maintain, young households will likely slow their entry into homeownership, meaning sales should be slower than normal, and worsening the imbalance between sellers and buyers.

They should take the baby boom echo generation into account though. It is about the same size, if not larger than the baby boom group considering there are one million immigrants entering the country legally.

[Liz555]

Just pulled this off of Reuters....

Economists mirror consumer survey: "Housing prices apt to fall much more"

POSTED: Wednesday, June 18, 2008
FROM BLOG: Counter Intelligence: The Real Estate Cafe Weblog - A consumer advocate's guide to saving money & recreating the residential estate industry online

The following blog post is from an independent writer and is not connected with Reuters News. The opinions and views expressed herein are those of the author and are not endorsed by Reuters.com.
(Turn off pop-up blocker, and click on table for larger image.)
An AP story hidden on page four of the Boston Globe business section, entitled "Housing prices apt to fall much more," reports that:

"A group of 10 economists says that home prices in the United States are only halfway through their fall."
"...and most of the further erosion should occur this year."

Those predictions are consistent with consumer surveys conducted by The Real Estate Cafe and Boston Bubble six months ago (December 2007 & January 2008), which revealed that consumers expected housing prices to bottom out sometime in 2009 or 2010.
When consumers in Greater Boston were asked to graph housing prices over the next 5 years (through 2012) in their local city or town, the composite pattern above emerged. A comparison of that table to the results of the same question asked two years ago (January 2006), reveals that consumer price expectations have taken a sharp downturn.
A recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston projecting that foreclosures may not peak in Massachusetts until the 2nd quarter of 2010, could send housing price expectations even lower. What's your prediction as we end the 3rd quarter of 2008?