Predictions for 2009 NJ Real Estate Market? (Camden, Burlington: for sale, foreclosed, bad credit)

[MaverickDD]

Originally Posted by apvbguy

what is all this talk of rate adjustments?, look around rates are currently quite low and have not risen in awhile and compared to the fed fund rates mortgage rates have room to be even lower, few if any adjustments will be high, this is a non issue

Adjustments on existing mortgages, many of which are tied to the LIBOR which hasn't dropped much, (as opposed to the Fed Funds Rate which has dropped significantly), will peak later this year. This will end the "teaser rate" low-payment season that so many borrowers have relied upon for the past two or three years.

Maybe you're right. Maybe it's a non-issue.
Maybe I'm right. Maybe it's a big issue.
Tickler-file this till April 16, 2010, and we'll have our answer.

[wileynj]

Originally Posted by Delphi

IMO, the last boom ended in 2005 end/mid 2006. So don't expect any turn around before 2011. Price can't keep going up all the time (what is the economic fundamental supporting it???). if someone thinks 130% up in 6 years and then 20% down in 1 year is the adjustment/bottom, please think twice how you kids are going to buy houses 20 years from now.

Boom ended 2005-2006 but things started to come down in 2003 - I purchased newq construction and talk the builder down by almost 30K... market started to reverse in 2003 - I still predict 2010 : ))

[njkate]

Originally Posted by AJGIANTS

exactly- until prices get to where they were at the beginning of the boom its not over.

I don't think they are going to go that low in NJ

[CuCullin]

Originally Posted by njkate

I don't think they are going to go that low in NJ

Me neither.

Overall, costs have gone up, home prices will follow suit. Whatever the valley is, I doubt it will be near the same pre-boom prices.

[kalim2008]

Originally Posted by Zarah19

The star ledger released an article two on 4/6/08 Sunday(Real Estate Section). It explained that the buyer's are out and buying, at least in Northern NJ as well as central. It also indicated that those that are waiting for prices to go lower the prices have already hit rock bottom. Now there are more buyers out buying homes. Meaning more competition and not a good chance of getting the lowest value possible for a home. I've been following the market very closely and the houses are selling. It also indicated the average finance rate to stay with in 6.5% for 2008-2009. Remember NJ is a state with a great location with buyers looking for homes close enough to access public transportation if needed to NYC or North Jersey Philly etc. (due to gas crisis) I think those that are closing on a home right now did there home work?? Now is the only time to throw a low ball since more buyers are coming out than that means more counter-offering/negotiating. So you wont be able to get the lowest possible value for the house if you don't make a move now... . any way just my opinion!

The star ledger writer is wrong, I doubt this is the bottom. It's much MUCH worse in CA and AZ and the like, where there are literally thousands of foreclosed homes that I've seen from only one mortgage lender, but I've been monitoring the real estate market in places in North/Central Jersey like Watchung, Randolph for several months now because we'll be buying, and most houses have been sitting there for a long while, even dropping $50k with no buyers. A couple have delisted then come back on the market again.

The small uptick we're seeing is the normal uptick because of Spring and Summer, you shouldn't compare that to winter sales, but to spring and summer from last year and the years before that.

The new government credit of $7000 for people buying foreclosed homes also means many potential buyers will look at bank-owned homes first instead of homes of honest people trying to sell their own homes. It will help the banks, but do nothing for the rest of us.

If I paid attention to way optimistic people like real estate agents whose livelihood depends on me buying, we would have been screwed already as the homes we've been looking at have all continued going down in price. Just a week ago several of the ones we were keeping track of dropped by $50k. I'm holding my money close by because I know the economy ain't doing too well and things can only get worse, especially by winter 2008, when sellers will really be desperate.

One interesting point about NJ though:
Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

"In New Jersey, foreclosure filings fell 6.2 percent from a year ago and declined 20 percent from February."

Then again, one data point does not a trend make....

[BobKovacs]

Originally Posted by CuCullin

Me neither.

Overall, costs have gone up, home prices will follow suit. Whatever the valley is, I doubt it will be near the same pre-boom prices.

It never is- if it was, prices at the bottom would still be the same as the lows in the 1900's, and the charts would just be a simple waveform that never changes. They'll drop, but not to the pre-boom prices.

I look at the house that we bought in 1999, which would have been worth $165k then if it was in the condition that we sold it in last year for $320k. That house will never be $165k again, but it'll probably drop into the $250-$280k range (actually, I think they're almost there already).

[tahiti]

Originally Posted by BobKovacs

It never is- if it was, prices at the bottom would still be the same as the lows in the 1900's, and the charts would just be a simple waveform that never changes. They'll drop, but not to the pre-boom prices.

I look at the house that we bought in 1999, which would have been worth $165k then if it was in the condition that we sold it in last year for $320k. That house will never be $165k again, but it'll probably drop into the $250-$280k range (actually, I think they're almost there already).

without doing the math, it seems it'll drop to levels had the rise been at the historical average (5% yr?)....which makes sense to me.

[njkate]

Originally Posted by kalim2008

The star ledger writer is wrong, I doubt this is the bottom. It's much MUCH worse in CA and AZ and the like, where there are literally thousands of foreclosed homes that I've seen from only one mortgage lender, but I've been monitoring the real estate market in places in North/Central Jersey like Watchung, Randolph for several months now because we'll be buying, and most houses have been sitting there for a long while, even dropping $50k with no buyers. A couple have delisted then come back on the market again.

The small uptick we're seeing is the normal uptick because of Spring and Summer, you shouldn't compare that to winter sales, but to spring and summer from last year and the years before that.

The new government credit of $7000 for people buying foreclosed homes also means many potential buyers will look at bank-owned homes first instead of homes of honest people trying to sell their own homes. It will help the banks, but do nothing for the rest of us.

If I paid attention to way optimistic people like real estate agents whose livelihood depends on me buying, we would have been screwed already as the homes we've been looking at have all continued going down in price. Just a week ago several of the ones we were keeping track of dropped by $50k. I'm holding my money close by because I know the economy ain't doing too well and things can only get worse, especially by winter 2008, when sellers will really be desperate.

One interesting point about NJ though:
Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

"In New Jersey, foreclosure filings fell 6.2 percent from a year ago and declined 20 percent from February."

Then again, one data point does not a trend make....

can you enlighten me or provide a link on this Government credit of $7k for buying a foreclosed home??
hubbie has been looking in Cape Coral Fl.....there is so many homes there in various stages of foreclosure it makes your head spin....being it would be for winter only I don't really care where he buys something..

[mike0421]

Do you all think there will be more resilency in the market, by region, in NJ? For instance, when we sold in Medford, the South Jersey 'over-value' was estimated to be 'only' about 12%, where in contrast, the North Jersey market was estimated to be 35-40% over-valued. My feeling is there is more of a 'correction' in line with regard to North Jersey prices bottoming as opposed to South Jersey, as the values in South Jersey weren't as over-valued to begin with.

[kalim2008]

Originally Posted by njkate

can you enlighten me or provide a link on this Government credit of $7k for buying a foreclosed home??
hubbie has been looking in Cape Coral Fl.....there is so many homes there in various stages of foreclosure it makes your head spin....being it would be for winter only I don't really care where he buys something..

It hasn't passed yet, but people are talking about it:
Homebuilders get breaks from Congress - Yahoo! News (broken link)

The bill also contains $4 billion in grants to local governments to buy and refurbish foreclosed homes, new authority for states to issue bonds to be used to refinance subprime mortgages — those made to borrowers with poor credit — and a $7,000 tax credit for people buying properties in foreclosure.