Predictions for 2009 NJ Real Estate Market? (Passaic: 2011, foreclosures, rent)

[am07122006]

While I realize that no one here has a crystal ball, I am curious to know where you think we'll be one year from today in the NJ real estate market. Worse off? Better? The same?

[tahiti]

Originally Posted by am07122006

While I realize that no one here has a crystal ball, I am curious to know where you think we'll be one year from today in the NJ real estate market. Worse off? Better? The same?

what specific location are you referring to in NJ? this will make a difference, at least with my prediction.

[wileynj]

well my opinion... the boom cycle runs every 7 to 10 years. The last boom ended in 2003 so I feel some progress will start in 2009 but I think the real turn-around will begin in 2010. Just my 2 cents : )

[MaverickDD]

Briefly ... BAD. Just plain BAD!

IMHO, we have only seen the tip of the iceberg regarding the real estate meltdown. Interest rate adjustments have not yet peaked, and will not until August/September. Accordingly, foreclosures will not peak until 2010. The market will then need time to recover. I'm not expecting price progress until 2012 or later. My greater concern is the magnitude of further regress we may still see.

In the interim, I'm thankful that I don't own a house in Florida ... but sometime in 2010 or 2011 may be a great time to buy one!

Short term -- bad. Mid term -- worse! Long term -- excellent.
The safest NJ markets: Middle-income neighborhoods with bread-and-butter homes.
Markets most prone to disaster: Urban neighborhoods where prices have been unrealistically propped up by government rent and tax-abatement subsidies. (The subsidies can't go up any more since the various governments ... fed, state, municipal ... are all going broke!)

Just my three cents. (Inflation!)

[njkate]

As a whole I don't think Jersey has faired as bad as some areas
Homes are still selling judging by the real estate transactions in local papers

the ones that may be precarious are all the McMansion buyers of the last 4-5 years
Normal homes in my town are selling...McMansions not so much..they sit longer

[Zarah19]

The star ledger released an article two on 4/6/08 Sunday(Real Estate Section). It explained that the buyer's are out and buying, at least in Northern NJ as well as central. It also indicated that those that are waiting for prices to go lower the prices have already hit rock bottom. Now there are more buyers out buying homes. Meaning more competition and not a good chance of getting the lowest value possible for a home. I've been following the market very closely and the houses are selling. It also indicated the average finance rate to stay with in 6.5% for 2008-2009. Remember NJ is a state with a great location with buyers looking for homes close enough to access public transportation if needed to NYC or North Jersey Philly etc. (due to gas crisis) I think those that are closing on a home right now did there home work?? Now is the only time to throw a low ball since more buyers are coming out than that means more counter-offering/negotiating. So you wont be able to get the lowest possible value for the house if you don't make a move now... . any way just my opinion!

[Delphi]

Originally Posted by wileynj

well my opinion... the boom cycle runs every 7 to 10 years. The last boom ended in 2003 so I feel some progress will start in 2009 but I think the real turn-around will begin in 2010. Just my 2 cents : )

IMO, the last boom ended in 2005 end/mid 2006. So don't expect any turn around before 2011. Price can't keep going up all the time (what is the economic fundamental supporting it???). if someone thinks 130% up in 6 years and then 20% down in 1 year is the adjustment/bottom, please think twice how you kids are going to buy houses 20 years from now.

[apvbguy]

Originally Posted by MaverickDD

Briefly ... BAD. Just plain BAD!

IMHO, we have only seen the tip of the iceberg regarding the real estate meltdown. Interest rate adjustments have not yet peaked, and will not until August/September.

what is all this talk of rate adjustments?, look around rates are currently quite low and have not risen in awhile and compared to the fed fund rates mortgage rates have room to be even lower, few if any adjustments will be high, this is a non issue

[am07122006]

I was specifically referring to the Northern NJ areas (Bergen, Passaic in mind), but it's nice to hear everyone's opinion on the entire state!

[AJGIANTS]

Originally Posted by Delphi

IMO, the last boom ended in 2005 end/mid 2006. So don't expect any turn around before 2011. Price can't keep going up all the time (what is the economic fundamental supporting it???). if someone thinks 130% up in 6 years and then 20% down in 1 year is the adjustment/bottom, please think twice how you kids are going to buy houses 20 years from now.

exactly- until prices get to where they were at the beginning of the boom its not over.