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Old 10-05-2019, 11:16 AM
 
Location: New Jersey
1,043 posts, read 662,585 times
Reputation: 446

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I live in suburban Middlesex.....heart of central Jersey

Middlesex is getting more congested and populated by day

I can see why.

Access to public transportation in Middlesex:

South Amboy
Perth Amboy
Woodbridge
Avenel
Metropark
Metuchen
New Brunswick

Bergen County has plenty access to public transportation, as it is near NYC.


As of 2018, the 2010 Census update shows Middlesex County population is 829,685 people.

As of 2018, the 2010 Census update shows Bergen County population is 936,692 people.

I can see these two suburban counties to reach 1 million in population in the 2020 and 2030 census.

Monmouth, Morris, etc. are losing population.

No one wants to live in Mendham and Colts Neck, and those places are too expensive for the new 30-yr old millennial who works in NYC; they don't want to commute so long to get access to a train or bus; they want to hop out of their home and walk directly to the local stop to work.
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Old 10-05-2019, 01:59 PM
 
134 posts, read 72,226 times
Reputation: 199
Quote:
Originally Posted by bingo3000 View Post
I live in suburban Middlesex.....heart of central Jersey

Middlesex is getting more congested and populated by day

I can see why.

Access to public transportation in Middlesex:

South Amboy
Perth Amboy
Woodbridge
Avenel
Metropark
Metuchen
New Brunswick

Bergen County has plenty access to public transportation, as it is near NYC.


As of 2018, the 2010 Census update shows Middlesex County population is 829,685 people.

As of 2018, the 2010 Census update shows Bergen County population is 936,692 people.

I can see these two suburban counties to reach 1 million in population in the 2020 and 2030 census.

Monmouth, Morris, etc. are losing population.

No one wants to live in Mendham and Colts Neck, and those places are too expensive for the new 30-yr old millennial who works in NYC; they don't want to commute so long to get access to a train or bus; they want to hop out of their home and walk directly to the local stop to work.
I think we are way past that bench mark. I moved to Middlesex back in 1999 from Noho. At the time, it felt like there was lots of open space. Soon after 9/11, I noticed a flow of new people from the city moving in. Then in early, 2003 or 2004 during the heights of the housing bubble we had another blast of new comers. After the bubble busted, the town reached a plateau that lasted a few years. Since 2014, a new trend of people moving in has literally crowed every single place in the County and it has not stopped. Woodbridge which is where I live feels extremely crowded......and the prices for housing being way below those in Union, Essex, and Bergen Counties does not help the inflow at all.
.
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Old 10-05-2019, 02:43 PM
 
100 posts, read 278,714 times
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Also too as many millennials/ younger people move into the housing market we will see an increase in growth for places that offer rentals and apartment complexes (Middlesex/ Bergen County). I would think as far as population growth the sky is the limit for them.
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Old 10-05-2019, 04:03 PM
 
Location: Noth Caccalacca
5,846 posts, read 6,853,278 times
Reputation: 5307
I doubt you're going to see Bergen or Middlesex Counties reach a million anytime soon. Bergen County is too pricey and built-out to attract many new younger residents. Nimbyism is rampant and those towns with lovely, single-family homes are going to fight tooth and nail to prevent apartments and condos from being erected on their tree-lined streets. Other than a few Goldman-Sachs yuppies, nobody from 35 on down can afford the lofty prices for single-family houses.

Middlesex County has some less expensive housing and a few undeveloped areas, but those places will probably end up as expensive senior housing. They're not building anything that could be considered "affordable housing" (about $100 per sq ft) by national standards, in either of those two counties.

The average college graduate in NJ faces a daunting choice in considering whether to chance to continue to live in NJ or relocate to another state. Many are chosing the latter and leaving. The South and West are welcoming them with open arms, good jobs and much cheaper housing prices.

Bergen and Middlesex counties grew rapidly in the period from the early 60's to the late 70's and now are essentially done growing. A senior complex here and a small 4-unit condo there, are all they're going to get for the forseeable future. It's going to be tough for either county to top 1 million with the "glacial growth" in population that NJ is experiencing. Just follow the moving vans. There's alot of people moving out and not too many moving in.

Thanks to Donnie Dearist, rich foreigners are no longer flocking to NYC in record numbers and displacing people who would be "naturals" to move to Bergen and Middlesex Counties. Couple that with the tax deduction limitations and any growth to Bergen and Middlesex Counties is going to be just a handful of new arrivals. I see Bergen and Middlesex hitting the 1 million mark in say, 2100. I'll be in a really tiny "housing unit by then!
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Old 10-07-2019, 11:39 AM
 
1,145 posts, read 1,570,862 times
Reputation: 1554
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheEmissary View Post
I doubt you're going to see Bergen or Middlesex Counties reach a million anytime soon. Bergen County is too pricey and built-out to attract many new younger residents. Nimbyism is rampant and those towns with lovely, single-family homes are going to fight tooth and nail to prevent apartments and condos from being erected on their tree-lined streets. Other than a few Goldman-Sachs yuppies, nobody from 35 on down can afford the lofty prices for single-family houses.

I'll agree there's zero chance for the 2020 census. 2030 is plausible for Bergen if not a sure bet.



For Bergen, that's a ~7% population increase in 12 years, or a bit over 0.5% a year. There's areas that are less wealthy/NIMBY and seeing steady new development/increased density, especially around NJT stations. Ex: Lyndhurst is up nearly 10% this decade.
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Old 10-07-2019, 01:42 PM
 
897 posts, read 610,506 times
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In Bergen, high rise and mid rise mixed use apartments are going up. The modern and Hudson lights is not fully occupied yet. Ground has been broken for 650 units in Hackensack at the old record newspaper and lots more new construction and conversions. I think Hackensack has 20 or so residential projects in various stages. Oradell has a high density project as the Suez property on the reservoir. That’s a lot of new units.
I don't think they’ll all be occupied by census time but someone is going to move in eventually.
https://www.downtownhackensack.org/n...ment-projects/
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Old 10-09-2019, 08:33 AM
 
450 posts, read 300,890 times
Reputation: 508
Quote:
Originally Posted by bingo3000 View Post

Monmouth, Morris, etc. are losing population.
Please provide source of this information.
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Old 10-10-2019, 08:10 AM
 
1,145 posts, read 1,570,862 times
Reputation: 1554
Quote:
Originally Posted by sjinnj View Post
Please provide source of this information.

Not the one who made that claim, but current US Census estimates are that Monmouth County has lost ~1.4% of residents since 2010.



https://factfinder.census.gov/bkmk/t...0500000US34025


Morris is not estimated to have lost population.



However, Hunterdon, Sussex, Warren, Burlington, Camden, Atlantic, Salem, Cumberland, and Cape May Counties are also all estimated to have lost population.


Substantial growth is basically exclusively coming from the areas closest in to NYC and best connected to it.
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Old 10-10-2019, 12:39 PM
46H
 
1,056 posts, read 639,621 times
Reputation: 2137
Quote:
Originally Posted by bingo3000 View Post
I live in suburban Middlesex.....heart of central Jersey



Bergen County has plenty access to public transportation, as it is near NYC.


As of 2018, the 2010 Census update shows Bergen County population is 936,692 people.

I can see these two suburban counties to reach 1 million in population in the 2020 and 2030 census.


No one wants to live in Mendham and Colts Neck, and those places are too expensive for the new 30-yr old millennial who works in NYC; they don't want to commute so long to get access to a train or bus; they want to hop out of their home and walk directly to the local stop to work.

Bergen County will not get to 1 million in 2030 let alone 2020. The current 2019 population estimate for Bergen Cty is 933,569. If Bergen County added 20,000 NEW units over the next decade(which would be almost impossible) and we use an accepted occupancy rate of 2.5 people per unit, there would only be an additional 50,000 people. This would still leave Bergen Cty under 1 million in population. Currently, there is no zoning in Bergen County that exists to support the type of density needed to substantially increase the population.
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