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Old 09-15-2008, 09:50 PM
 
5,340 posts, read 12,988,331 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Delphi View Post
I would say deep painful correction. We Americans need to give up part of the wealth we gathered in last 7/8 yrs.
But "we" didn't all gain it.
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Old 09-15-2008, 09:51 PM
 
5,340 posts, read 12,988,331 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by njkate View Post
Well it's going to have a ripple effect, that's for sure!!

On another financial matter...kudos to the administartor of Fannie & Fred..he/she will not be honoring those golden parachute pay outs to the big wigs...about time some of those jack azzes felt the pain as well
Amen to that! NOTHING ticks me off than someone getting gazillions for messing up. I wish someone would pay me off to mess up.
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Old 09-15-2008, 09:54 PM
 
5,340 posts, read 12,988,331 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tahiti View Post
guys - i'll let this stay as long as it doesn't veer off into what mccain/obama will/will not do....thanks.................
So can we say we hate Bush!
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Old 09-15-2008, 10:48 PM
 
217 posts, read 1,058,808 times
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^^ hahaha! i mean it's almost a priority
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Old 09-16-2008, 01:16 AM
 
Location: South Philly
1,943 posts, read 6,416,843 times
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We're headed for a depression in the US and a global recession. It's going to be tough times in this country for years to come. We have an economy based on petroleum from beginning to end and we have zero alternatives. A doubling of gas prices meant that a whole lot of people had to choose between getting to work and paying more for food or paying their mortgage. It's going to take 10-15 years for this to straighten itself out and, in the end, a lot of people are going to lose a lot of equity because we're in the beginning of a fundamental shift of real estate values - away from the suburbs and towards cities and rail/commuter towns.

Not only that but our whole transportation/distribution network is in for a shake-up, as is manufacturing, ditto financial sector. We already have factories shutting down in China and reopening in Mexico because the cost of shipping has eliminated any costs savings there might have been in outsourcing to China.

So yeah, I'll be in JC next weekend. I have my 8-country consulate tour all planned out. Whichever country grants me the longest work visa with the most favorable exchange rate is the winner.

I'll be back when the economy picks up.
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Old 09-16-2008, 07:18 AM
 
505 posts, read 1,618,440 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by solibs View Post
We're headed for a depression in the US and a global recession. It's going to be tough times in this country for years to come. We have an economy based on petroleum from beginning to end and we have zero alternatives. A doubling of gas prices meant that a whole lot of people had to choose between getting to work and paying more for food or paying their mortgage. It's going to take 10-15 years for this to straighten itself out and, in the end, a lot of people are going to lose a lot of equity because we're in the beginning of a fundamental shift of real estate values - away from the suburbs and towards cities and rail/commuter towns.

Not only that but our whole transportation/distribution network is in for a shake-up, as is manufacturing, ditto financial sector. We already have factories shutting down in China and reopening in Mexico because the cost of shipping has eliminated any costs savings there might have been in outsourcing to China.

So yeah, I'll be in JC next weekend. I have my 8-country consulate tour all planned out. Whichever country grants me the longest work visa with the most favorable exchange rate is the winner.

I'll be back when the economy picks up.
If we are headed toawrds a global recession then why try to look elsewhere for work?

I agree with you on some points (infastructure based on cheap oil, real estate values) but some of your other comments leave me a little
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Old 09-16-2008, 07:41 AM
 
526 posts, read 1,289,281 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by solibs View Post
We're headed for a depression in the US and a global recession. It's going to be tough times in this country for years to come. We have an economy based on petroleum from beginning to end and we have zero alternatives. A doubling of gas prices meant that a whole lot of people had to choose between getting to work and paying more for food or paying their mortgage. It's going to take 10-15 years for this to straighten itself out and, in the end, a lot of people are going to lose a lot of equity because we're in the beginning of a fundamental shift of real estate values - away from the suburbs and towards cities and rail/commuter towns.

Not only that but our whole transportation/distribution network is in for a shake-up, as is manufacturing, ditto financial sector. We already have factories shutting down in China and reopening in Mexico because the cost of shipping has eliminated any costs savings there might have been in outsourcing to China.

So yeah, I'll be in JC next weekend. I have my 8-country consulate tour all planned out. Whichever country grants me the longest work visa with the most favorable exchange rate is the winner.

I'll be back when the economy picks up.
Though I agree with some of your points. Specifically a lot of people are going to lose a lot of equity because we're in the beginning of a fundamental shift of real estate values - away from the suburbs and towards cities and rail/commuter towns. Yes this has been happening in New Jersey for more than 2 years now, and will continue for quite a long time.

The rest of what you had to say in your post is just way over the top. I would not be surprised to see the US go into a recession, will it happen, I don't know, but the odds seem good. Will we go into a depression, I doubt it, the odds are much longer for that.

I had a doom sayer client earlier this year who moved back to Europe after their house sold, who drove me crazy with all their predictions and crazy talk. Finally I had to start saying, what does this have to do with getting your home sold now, and my continual advice to get out of the house and not talk to the home buyers who come look. This person (my seller) told at least 4 different buyers why they hated New Jersey and were leaving. Now that really sells a house!!

Let us know where you end up.
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Old 09-16-2008, 08:10 AM
 
Location: New Milford, NJ
1,452 posts, read 2,948,227 times
Reputation: 1009
Quote:
Originally Posted by EEEPNJ View Post
But "we" didn't all gain it.

Yeah, ha ha, give up what wealth? I never had any to begin with. That's why they call us "MIDDLE CLASS"; because most of us AREN'T wealthy and we're not poor enough to qualify for freebies.

I'm in Bergen County and there seems to be a high concentration of people with a lot of money....then there's the rest of us. This economy won't change my life any. I've always just eked by anyway, and will continue to do the same. I WISH I had some wealth to give up. And I would not even be where I am if it weren't for my parents' help.

I will say this: I'm sorry, but I don't feel sorry for those people who took adjustable rate mortgages then cried the blues when they got laid off and at the same time the rates skyrocketed, that's what an ARM is; a mortgage whose rate is bound to go up after the introductory period is over.

Some people got greedy and felt they were entitled to homes they had no business buying. Couple that with an artifically inflated real estate market and it's a recipe for disaster for sure. We bought the CHEAPEST house we could and took a fixed rate mortgage. Sure, I would have loved to take advantage of the low teaser rates, but I was analyzing the worst case scenario at the time under which we would still be able to pay the mortgage when we were still married, and bought in the most conservative manner possible, even though we qualified for a much higher mortgage, and it's a good thing we did because my son got kicked out of daycare at 4 years old (they could not handle his attention deficit but he was so young no doctor would medicate him even though that's when he needed it most--he is off all meds today at 11) and I couldn't work even if I wanted to.

Now I wish I had taken an ARM because after I had refinanced a second time when the rates went down, my ex-husband left and I had to pay off the mortgage in order to get his name off the house AND come up with another $50 K to buy him out. We only had each mortgage for less than about...2 years each, so I could have taken advantage of the ARM rates, had I known what was going to happen (the divorce).

If it wasn't for my parents, I would have a mortgage as a single parent right now, but guess what? Because I was always frugal (not cheap), I could have afforded it on my own and in fact, by now, three short years later, could have paid half of it off.

My parents absorbed the mortgage via their home equity instead (my inheritance, so I don't have to wait until they drop dead for help, my mother says). But even without them I could have refinanced and still afforded the mortgage because I was the one who chose conservatively when I was still married.

And now those people who overspent want a bail out? Why should I or anyone else for that matter help bail out people in better houses than me with federal tax dollars that come from my taxes that I paid? I know this isn't the case for everyone, but still....I was in the market for this house when the market went crazy and I saw what people were paying for the dumps around here and I took my time and refused to overpay for any old thing because of panic that I wouldn't find one in such a tight market. I decided I would only pay what was reasonable, not get into bidding wars and pay $20 to $30K over asking (which a lot of people did around here) for a house that was artficially inflated in price to begin with. That's how you end up with negative equity when the market inevitably takes a downturn......duh....simple mathematics, my friends.

Last edited by onegreatnurse; 09-16-2008 at 08:20 AM.. Reason: grammar
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Old 09-16-2008, 08:33 AM
 
Location: Weehawken, NJ
2,179 posts, read 6,253,642 times
Reputation: 1165
WaMu just downgraded to "junk" status. Anyone who thinks the overinflated housing market had zero to do with this is crazy. I'm the last person that wants to see jobs go away and storied companies close, but we need them to fail. We need to learn the lesson so we don't do it again. The S&L crisis of the 80's was due to housing issues and bad loan practices, and so is this. Americans have a short memory and this is a bad thing.

What needs to be done to raise the nose of this plane before it slams into the side of the mountain is to let the CEO's crash and burn. Let the board of directors get into the unemployment line like the rest of those that got thrown to the curb in a matter of minutes. There should be no golden parachutes, no massive severance packages, no bailout by the Fed.

Who is next to be placed on the guillotine?

WaMu
Wachovia
AIG
Morgan Stanley

All of these places are teetering on disaster, and the bad lending habits have finally come back to haunt all of us.

When I was looking for a condo in Jersey City, I was given a 106% loan with no income verification. The loan officer could care less if I was slinging crack, or finding a cure for cancer. His goal was to get me a loan and make a large commission.

I am going to be brave here and predict that the average home value might fall 30-40% to get us out of this mess.
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Old 09-16-2008, 08:35 AM
 
Location: Weehawken, NJ
2,179 posts, read 6,253,642 times
Reputation: 1165
...and oil is down to 91. OPEC is silently sh**ting themselves right now. Oil production can be cut, but it won't stop the free fall.
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