Buy house now or wait? Southern NJ. (Edison, Collingswood: sales, real estate)

[HalfFull]

Originally Posted by JamesBoyer

I think that there is little danger for you at this point. I don't work south jersey at all so understand there is no benefit to me at all if you buy or don't buy.

there are those on this forum who will tell you to wait, and they will continue to give this advice until it has been all over the news for months and months the prices are moving up sharply. They are like anyone who tries to time a market, they are almost always wrong.

Fair enough..... but there were plenty of people who cited "little danger" 6 months ago. I can guarantee you that a year from now, you will not have seen "news for months and months that prices are moving up sharply".

We are in the midst of the most turbulent financial crisis of the generation. Caution is hardly a bad strategy at the moment.

That being said, if you find your dram house and plan to live there for many years.... go for it !!

[JERSEY MAN]

Well check the poll that Hoboken Guy posted. 19-0 people did not feel home prices will rise in the immediate future. Some are buyers and some are sellers. If this is an overall view of the market and feelings of people I would wait but keep updated and do my homework NOW. With that said time is in your favor they are not going to jump overnight. Unemployment is rising and confidence is dropping. After the election hopefully things will stabilize.

[solibs]

In Philly/South Jersey people have talking for almost 3 years now about the imminent collapse of the real estate market.

Nationally, yeah, it collapsed. But housing prices in most of the Delaware Valley were not overvalued so there's been very little for the market to "correct". What has happened is that inventory has shriveled to maybe 1/5 of what it was 2 years ago. It doesn't help buyers any.

I'm not telling anyone they have to buy now but, at the same time, I wouldn't sit around for a year or two waiting for prices to come down b/c I don't think it's going to happen. The best houses out there are the ones that are lived in by people who care about them. Those people aren't selling until the market comes back.

[MoorestownResident]

Originally Posted by solibs

In Philly/South Jersey people have talking for almost 3 years now about the imminent collapse of the real estate market.

Nationally, yeah, it collapsed. But housing prices in most of the Delaware Valley were not overvalued so there's been very little for the market to "correct". What has happened is that inventory has shriveled to maybe 1/5 of what it was 2 years ago. It doesn't help buyers any.

I'm not telling anyone they have to buy now but, at the same time, I wouldn't sit around for a year or two waiting for prices to come down b/c I don't think it's going to happen. The best houses out there are the ones that are lived in by people who care about them. Those people aren't selling until the market comes back.

Prices in SJ region rose 50% or more over a 5-7 year period, in Moorestown, they rose 60% or more. That said, SJ is holding up very well. There is caution but economic growth is still decent with projects planned and under construction. Both Cherry Hill and Voorhees are building massive projects as town centers; the Cherry Hill Mall is undergoing a massive makeover, etc. Collingswood has transformed itself and neighboring Haddon Twp is now undergoing a major project. SJ is not in recession.

Moving forward, keep in mind, SJ was tremendously undervalued prior to the R/E bubble, so while price have softened from huge increases, they've held up better than NJ as a whole and much better than the nation. The other positive affecting the region is the flight out of Philly into the burbs in search of better schools and quality of life.

Lastly, R/E is local. I purchased June 2007 in Moorestown and yes if I waited I might have gotten it cheaper but it was the right house for me, in an area of town that sells quickly. The guy who sold it to me lost $50K after fixing it up and trying to flip it, it appraised more than I paid for it earlier this year and I have since added on to it. I have a solid investment in a prime location that will resell quickly in a normal market. In fact, several neighboring homes have sold in 2008, one as quickly as 2-3 weeks.

So, my advice is if you find something that feels right, I wouldn't hesitate to buy in most towns in SJ. Towns with the best school systems hold up the best during down markets - I'd consider Haddonfield and Haddon Twp over Collingswood for that reason but CW is still a good long term investment with the structural changes going on.

[emanon]

If there is anybody out there who knows the date when real estate prices will bottom out then you probably already know the winning numbers for next weeks Mega Millions Lottery drawing.

Please send me a PM with the numbers.


E

[RutgersParent]

It really depends on the towns and area. e.g. Greater Rutgers University area has been booming, why? e.g. they got 1,000 extra new students accepted the admission, and now they are in local hotels, and next year they may have to go out to rent their own place. And, who knows, if Rutgers Univ got another 1,000 extra new students choose Rutgers Univ over other universities due to the university ranking moving up.

So, the rental in the area after September already became so tight. Some students rented a 1br condo for $1,400 to share, some rented a $2,500 3br townhouse to share. In the years to come, you will see this area booming.

So, whether to buy or rent, really depending on the area. Like yours are shrinking, rent went down, you may want to rent. But, for some area like Greater Rutgers University Area that is booming and will continue to expand, you may find buying your own home may be better at collapsed mortgage rate.

For myself, I am glad that I bought a condo for my son just got into Rutgers Univ so that he will not only worry free on future housing, but also with a jump start when he graduates and start working. He shall move up much faster than his peers in Corporate USA ladder.

If you call your realtor to find condos or townhouse around Rutgers University, don't be surprised some communities already sold out and most have few units for sale, if any.

[Roselvr]

Originally Posted by MoorestownResident

Prices in SJ region rose 50% or more over a 5-7 year period, in Moorestown, they rose 60% or more. That said, SJ is holding up very well. There is caution but economic growth is still decent with projects planned and under construction. Both Cherry Hill and Voorhees are building massive projects as town centers; the Cherry Hill Mall is undergoing a massive makeover, etc. Collingswood has transformed itself and neighboring Haddon Twp is now undergoing a major project. SJ is not in recession.

Moving forward, keep in mind, SJ was tremendously undervalued prior to the R/E bubble, so while price have softened from huge increases, they've held up better than NJ as a whole and much better than the nation. The other positive affecting the region is the flight out of Philly into the burbs in search of better schools and quality of life.

Lastly, R/E is local. I purchased June 2007 in Moorestown and yes if I waited I might have gotten it cheaper but it was the right house for me, in an area of town that sells quickly. The guy who sold it to me lost $50K after fixing it up and trying to flip it, it appraised more than I paid for it earlier this year and I have since added on to it. I have a solid investment in a prime location that will resell quickly in a normal market. In fact, several neighboring homes have sold in 2008, one as quickly as 2-3 weeks.

So, my advice is if you find something that feels right, I wouldn't hesitate to buy in most towns in SJ. Towns with the best school systems hold up the best during down markets - I'd consider Haddonfield and Haddon Twp over Collingswood for that reason but CW is still a good long term investment with the structural changes going on.

I have to agree. Real estate is local, very hard for people to say yes buy now or no, wait.

As you said, there are towns that are desirable, I feel that if that's the case, you really shouldn't drag your feet if you do find something you like.

Originally Posted by NatasNJ

I know the area. Lived here most my life. So that is not a factor at all. Heck I basically have narrowed down my search to 2 towns. Haddon & Collingswood. And I even have sections of those towns that I won't even consider. So I am pretty focused in that respect.

I just don't want to buy a place and see its value drop month after month. Even though I plan to live in my next house for a LONG time, I rather avoid as much bleeding as possible. Just sold and lost a bunch and don't want to do it again.

I looked for a house for 7 months. At some point, your time has to be worth something as well. We ended up in new construction in Williamstown. For what we would have paid for someone's older house we got new. Just about everyone here in Willow Woods says the same thing.

I would actively look for houses, walk some of the new construction as well. It will give you an idea of what's out there. If you find something, cool, if not keep looking.

Good luck

[tahiti]

prices are not going to "jump" overnight so you're not in danger if you don't buy now. look at history as your guide...during the last bubble that burst in 91, prices didn't spike until around 99/00 - and this crisis (that affects the WHOLE COUNTRY) is a lot worse.

[MoorestownResident]

True, but here's a site with some history of prior cycles.

Past Housing Price Corrections - Platial.com

For example using Edison, NJ, as a proxy for NJ, prices fell 14% from 1988-1991, after being 'overvalued' by 36%. Total correction lasted 3.75 years. That overvaluation % for NJ is not unlike the current downturn 'overvaluation' that existed in 2005. So, if history is any guide, maybe bottom in NJ is now or 2009. I also think the bailout takes 3 years off the current correction since it will slowly improve credit availability. So, looking objectively, 3.75 years + 3 years = 6.75 years or nearly 2X as long as the last severe downturn.

[solibs]

A few things - rents haven't gone down. In most places the opposite has happened because there's tremendous pressure on the rental market. Since every one in the development industry had all their eggs in the home building basket no one was building apartments. There was a glut of houses and a serious shortage of apartments in almost every market. Not to mention the fact that a lot of people who would normally be moving into the market for a home are remaining renters until they feel more comfortable about the market and all the people who are getting foreclosed on are also moving back into the rental market.

The people who are leaving Philadelphia don't have the money to buy a house in Moorestown. Probably not in Collingswood either. They're mostly moving to apartment complexes and they're mostly staying on the PA side of the river. The contrast is, half the people I meet in South Philly (and even in Fishtown) under the age of 30, all grew up in South Jersey.

The crisis right now is a financial crisis, not a real estate crisis. So, like I said, there's no harm in waiting a year. Just keep a close eye on interest rates. But whatever value South Jersey was going to lose has already happened. If you look at the ratios of income to home prices it's not an overvalued market.