Buy house now or wait? Southern NJ. (Newark, Hoboken: loans, house prices)

[JERSEY MAN]

We are in and going further into a recession, people are losing jobs, people have lost much wealth, do you seriously think prices on homes will rise in the near term? I don't and accordinging to a poll on this site posted by Hoboken guy not one of 30 people polled thinks prices will rise.And some are sellers and potential buyers, that there should be a general mood of what people think. Wait to many high techers lose their jobs IMO I think home prices will still drop, how much no one knows. I don't think many or any people think home prices will rise any in the near term.

[JamesBoyer]

Jersey Man, The point I was making oh so long ago in this thread was not that prices were on the verge of rising. The point I was making was that many if not most here at the City Data Forum will be advising potential home buyers to wait, and they will still be advising them to wait until the news media gives the all clear. Guess what, just like with every stock market cycle, the news media will be very late to the game on that one.

It used to be said that when ever Business Week puts Economic Boom, or Buy Stocks Now, or something similar to that on it's cover, it was a sure sign you should do the exact opposite because by the time they get around to that point of view, the cycle is about over.

I really don't put any stock in the polls here, or what most people who post regularly on this forum predict that home prices will do in the next year or two. Why? because all they have for perspective is the news media, and what their friends and relatives have to say. That information is ok, but it certainly is not going to paint much of a true realistic picture.

On top of that, all markets are very local, which is why in 2007 for example we could have one town with 0% average price decline, and yet another town within 15 miles with a 14% average price decline.

[NatasNJ]

Originally Posted by JERSEY MAN

We are in and going further into a recession, people are losing jobs, people have lost much wealth, do you seriously think prices on homes will rise in the near term? I don't and accordinging to a poll on this site posted by Hoboken guy not one of 30 people polled thinks prices will rise.And some are sellers and potential buyers, that there should be a general mood of what people think. Wait to many high techers lose their jobs IMO I think home prices will still drop, how much no one knows. I don't think many or any people think home prices will rise any in the near term.

We are not currently in a recession last time I checked.

[JERSEY MAN]

Originally Posted by NatasNJ

We are not currently in a recession last time I checked.

I must have missed it. I guess times are good.

[Tungsten_Udder]

"Buy Low, Sell High" is advice that never goes out of fashion.

The trouble with New Jersey (and the metro New York City area) is that unlike most other places in the US at the moment, we haven't gotten to a point yet where we can buy very low. This area has decided to "hold" rather than come down much.

I'd also suggest waiting a bit for a big purchase to see if some people get impatient trying to wait it out and get the higher price. But you'd have to watch closely; if the real estate market in general starts improving and prices start going up again, you'd need to buy quickly.

However, if you can afford it, I'd still avoid renting--that's a guarantee that you're just throwing that money away. Try to buy something WAY below your budget--something that's probably kinda small for you, and that you can either buy outright or pay off very quickly. Even if prices go down more in the short term, they're going to go up more in the long run--think of 1960 prices compared to now; it hardly matters what the small fluctuations were when you look at it on that scale. And that way you've got an investment that can make you a couple extra bucks off of down the road when they do eventually go up, yet it won't interfere with you being able to make your big purchase when the time is right to "buy low". You could even rent the smaller property at that time--then you've got that rental income while you're living in your bigger place, plus you still have the property to sell when you decide to.

[NatasNJ]

Originally Posted by JERSEY MAN

I must have missed it. I guess times are good.

Learn what a recession is by definition then come talk to me.
Never said times ARE good. Also never said we weren't heading INTO a recession but right now we are not.

[MoorestownResident]

Well, a couple thoughts since I know the SJ economy and market - the troubles in NYC and financial industry at large will have limited effects on the local SJ economy. The Wachovia deal will not result in job losses in Philly, for example, or the closing of SJ branches. There could be some fallout from the Merrill/BAC deal but the vast majority of those people live in central NJ. I think there could be some indirect fallout - people moving to SJ might slow as the local conditions deteriorate elsewhere.

I'm not saying SJ won't be in recession but I suspect it will hold up better than the rest of the tri-state area due to diverse economy, proximity to Philly - which is doing just fine and not being hurt materially from the credit crunch, and relative lower cost of living than some areas of northern NJ. So, I get back to finding the right house, offerring 10% less and see what happens. As others have pointed out, relative to incomes and job growth in recent years, SJ is not currently overvalued and prices are coming down less. In fact, in center city Philly, the condo market is stable and prices are flat to rising slightly.

[tahiti]

Originally Posted by NatasNJ

Learn what a recession is by definition then come talk to me.
Never said times ARE good. Also never said we weren't heading INTO a recession but right now we are not.

we could be - the data just hasn't come out yet, correct?

[HalfFull]

Originally Posted by NatasNJ

Learn what a recession is by definition then come talk to me.
Never said times ARE good. Also never said we weren't heading INTO a recession but right now we are not.

Give me a break. So what if economists are not in agreement whether we are technically in a recession yet? You should know that the technical declaration of a recesssion happens a while after it has actually started. After the miserable 3rd quarter, we'll be there. But again, who cares about the technical economist definition???? The perception and experience of the people screams "recession", and JM's points stand.

[NatasNJ]

Originally Posted by HalfFull

Give me a break. So what if economists are not in agreement whether we are technically in a recession yet? You should know that the technical declaration of a recesssion happens a while after it has actually started. After the miserable 3rd quarter, we'll be there. But again, who cares about the technical economist definition???? The perception and experience of the people screams "recession", and JM's points stand.

Hey. If 1 person or 1 million person all scream "FIRE" doesn't mean there is a fire.