Northern NJ--When Will the Market Bottom Out?

[wileynj]

Originally Posted by Alex07860

Boy, aren't you just a bearer of optimism and sunshine LOL......It's a mad mad world out there and I'm not going to take it anymore!! :::loading shotgun::::

lol..what do I care..I sold..I bought - not my problem at the moment : )))) Ok, ok... I do care so put down the shot gun.

[Lusitan]

Originally Posted by wileynj

In my opinion...barring foreclosures and short sales... we are at bottom and I believe home prices will remain stagnant - unchanged for at least another 5 yrs.

Not sure what you mean by barring foreclosures and short sales, because they are part of what drives the market price. But in any case, 5 years of flat prices from where we are today is probably the best case scenario. Even then, inflation will be eating away at the value of those prices, so a 600K house 5 years from now won't be as valuable as it is today.

With the financial industry getting whalloped and a deep recession still underway, I don't think we've seen the worst of it yet by any stretch.

But we can come back to this thread one year from now and each see how our individual crystal ball worked ...

[monack]

I also don't think we've seen the worst of times. There is still too much inventory on the market, and too few folks able to easily get mortgages, for the prices to level out just yet. I do not think that the market has hit bottom.

[tallguylehigh]

I think it is really tough to predict this market because it a lot more complicated than supply and demand. You have a whole slew of other variables that are clouding the picture.

You have people who are trying to sell out of curiosity rather than necessity. That can effect the inventory. Sure the house is for sale, but if the people won't accept less than $600k for their 2 bedroom in Denville, I can hardly even consider that inventory it is so delusional.

Then you have buyers. Some people are buying houses, but with this credit tightening, you might have more buyers out there that are actually qualified for mortgages unable to get them due to overcompensation of the loose lending practices of the last 10 years or so.

Like someone said, communities on/close to trains are still hot, and I feel communities that have an inherent mystique to them are also not dropping as quickly, because people are looking to move into those areas.

[tahiti]

Originally Posted by tallguylehigh

I think it is really tough to predict this market because it a lot more complicated than supply and demand. You have a whole slew of other variables that are clouding the picture.

You have people who are trying to sell out of curiosity rather than necessity. That can effect the inventory. Sure the house is for sale, but if the people won't accept less than $600k for their 2 bedroom in Denville, I can hardly even consider that inventory it is so delusional.

Then you have buyers. Some people are buying houses, but with this credit tightening, you might have more buyers out there that are actually qualified for mortgages unable to get them due to overcompensation of the loose lending practices of the last 10 years or so.

Like someone said, communities on/close to trains are still hot, and I feel communities that have an inherent mystique to them are also not dropping as quickly, because people are looking to move into those areas.

I generally agree with this. I don't think we've seen the bottom, and the more outlying areas will see steeper declines. I'd say in general houses around here are around 2003/2004 prices today, and I think further corrections are on the horizon. Towns with transit won't be as hard hit, IMHO, but will still drop.

However, Americans have short memories, and the drop in gas prices may help towns where commuting by car is necessary. Only time will tell though.

I'm still waiting for houses in Beach Haven West to drop more as I'd love to snag a little bungalow on a canal. They're dropping, but still way out of whack for the area IMHO.

[HalfFull]

February 27th, 2009 at 1:29 pm. Just my estimate.

[Lusitan]

Originally Posted by HalfFull

February 27th, 2009 at 1:29 pm. Just my estimate.

Talk about an optimist ...

[CuCullin]

Originally Posted by HalfFull

February 27th, 2009 at 1:29 pm. Just my estimate.

I'm going with Feb 11th... the 42nd day.

A dolphin told me.

[sofietrt]

Originally Posted by jriley73

Just curious to see what others think about home prices. Despite the economy, it doesn't seem like prices in northern NJ have fallen much. When do you think they'll hit bottom?

I don't think anybody can precisely answer that question other than to say they either have already hit bottom or have yet to hit bottom.

I happen to side with the latter.

There's a difference between asking price by the seller and actual price sold. Pay close attention to actual price sold statistics which, for example, in North Bergen County I think are still declining. There is presently a spike in asking prices but you have to map that against the actual selling price trend.

As a potential buyer, I'm still waiting. However, I'm sure there are others here who are far more knowledgeable than I am.

Yet I will say... Buying a home for some is more of an investment decision, as it is for a lot of men. Buying a home for a woman typically is more personal. Having said that, price sometimes isn't the top priority, depending on how the decision is being made.

Good luck in your search! Here's a link I've found helpful at Trulia - Real Estate, Homes For Sale, Sold Properties, Real Estate Maps but it isn't a substitute for someone who is deeply knowledgable about a particular area in which you are considering.

Sofie

[HalfFull]

Originally Posted by HalfFull

February 27th, 2009 at 1:29 pm. Just my estimate.

I nailed that one..... right????