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Old 02-22-2009, 06:42 PM
 
786 posts, read 2,664,190 times
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http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/22/ny...j.html?_r=1&em

In Bergen County, it would take an estimated 15 years and 4 months to sell all the houses now on the market priced at $2.5 million or more. In Morris County, for homes priced from $1 million to $2.5 million, it would take seven and a half years, and in Warren County, for homes priced from $600,000 to $1 million, five years and one month.


With unsold-house inventories like those, and the probability that the economic malaise will continue for some time, Mr. Otteau’s most recent prediction is that New Jersey home prices will continue to drop.

Prices have declined by an average of 15 to 20 percent in every county in the past three and a half years, contract sales data indicates. At the start of 2009, some real estate professionals said they had noticed a few sellers starting to “see the light” and agreeing to slash asking prices by 10 to 20 percent, sometimes even 25 percent.
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Old 02-22-2009, 06:56 PM
 
Location: NJ
12,283 posts, read 35,684,988 times
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"In Bergen County, it would take an estimated 15 years and 4 months to sell all the houses now on the market priced at $2.5 million or more. In Morris County, for homes priced from $1 million to $2.5 million, it would take seven and a half years, and in Warren County, for homes priced from $600,000 to $1 million, five years and one month."

To put this in some sort of perspective, I wonder what the amount of time it would take for these "higher end" homes to sell in a normal market.
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Old 02-22-2009, 07:04 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
4,180 posts, read 5,060,271 times
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Otteau is an imbecile hack who makes a living off of equally uneducated real estate agents' naivete.

no one truly knows what's going to happen.

I suspect the reason the 8K tax credit is only good until the end of this year is because that's when the conventional wisdom has the market bottoming out.
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Old 02-22-2009, 07:25 PM
 
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Otteau is and has been pretty accurate in his data. This is looking back historically at his reports for the past 3 years; I've only attended one of his seminars. As for making projections on a county-wide basis, that's extremely inaccurate. Every town has its own market data and coinciding timeline. Stop feeding more garbage into the system. There's enough as it is.
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Old 02-22-2009, 07:26 PM
 
1,552 posts, read 4,633,308 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JG183 View Post
I suspect the reason the 8K tax credit is only good until the end of this year is because that's when the conventional wisdom has the market bottoming out.
Yeah, it couldn't have anything to do with running out of money, or with a desperate push to try to create a false sense of urgency for people to "buy now!" ...


"Over the course of three and a half years, the New Jersey residential market has headed downhill fast. In September 2006, Jeffrey G. Otteau, whose Otteau Valuation Group gathers data on the residential market for many builders and brokers, said there were 68,000 houses sitting on the market unsold for a month or longer, more than he had ever seen in his experience in this market. By spring 2007, there were 71,000 unsold houses, his firm reported, and by May 2008, that number had climbed again, to 74,000.

... At the same time, the pace of sales kept lagging, sometimes erratically, but always headed down ...

Home prices can fall. Home prices can fall. Home prices can fall further than I believe possible. Home prices are falling and will continue to fall.”
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Old 02-22-2009, 07:29 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
4,180 posts, read 5,060,271 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AntoinetteNJ View Post
Otteau is and has been pretty accurate in his data. This is looking back historically at his reports for the past 3 years
yeah, he's accurate in data presented in hindsight, which is always 20-20


check out this thread:

http://www.city-data.com/forum/real-...later-not.html
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Old 02-22-2009, 07:31 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
4,180 posts, read 5,060,271 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lusitan View Post
Yeah, it couldn't have anything to do with running out of money, or with a desperate push to try to create a false sense of urgency for people to "buy now!" ...
that would mean that they're looking for just a short-term, one-time boost -- I find it hard to believe that that's the best they expect, this administration wants long-term prosperity.

...I was expecting you to jump into this thread guns-ablaze, love your predictability !
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Old 02-22-2009, 07:37 PM
 
1,552 posts, read 4,633,308 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JG183 View Post
that would mean that they're looking for just a short-term, one-time boost -- I find it hard to believe that that's the best they expect, this administration wants long-term prosperity.
LOL

This administration (as with the previous one) is in "crisis mode" and is simply trying to contain the conflagration and prevent the entire economy from pulling a Weimar Republic collapse.

What they want is beside the point; what they are capable of is the key. And all they are capable of us one gimmick after another.

Quote:
...I was expecting you to jump into this thread guns-ablaze, love your predictability !
Happy to oblige. You don't disappoint with your poo-pooing the latest reality check either.
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Old 02-22-2009, 08:07 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
4,180 posts, read 5,060,271 times
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Five reasons to buy a house now: FiLife (a WSJ partner)
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Old 02-22-2009, 08:34 PM
 
1,552 posts, read 4,633,308 times
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LOL

Well if Amy Hoak says it's a wise move to buy a house now, it must be ...

... er, wait, what's that? On the exact same day, Amy also says it's not a good time to buy a house?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...st=SecMostRead

Hmmm ... gee this is a tough decision

On the one hand, you have Amy Hoak saying now is a good time to buy ...

... but on the other hand you have every economic indicator screaming that now is a terrible time to buy (plus you also have Amy Hoak saying now is not a good time to buy).

Decisions, decisions ...
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