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Old 03-31-2009, 12:36 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
4,152 posts, read 5,017,241 times
Reputation: 4203

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Posted 31 Mar 2009, 10:50 am EDT, by Henry Blodget
in Investing, Recession, Banking

OK, not "positive", exactly, but certainly less negative than he's sounded over the past 18 months. NYU professor Nouriel Roubini, you'll recall, is known as "Dr. Doom", the most famous of the handful of economists who actually predicted the current debacle. A few days ago, after a speech in Italy, he was quoted as saying he might see some "light at the end of the tunnel". And he repeats a similiarly non-apocalyptic outlook on TechTicker.

To be clear: Roubini is NOT predicting an imminent recovery. He thinks that most economists are still way too bullish, that the stock market will retest its lows, and that unemployment will eventually rise over 10%. He just thinks that the quarter that is now ending, Q1, will be the worst rate of decline in the economy and that things will gradually stop deteriorating and then get better from here.

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Old 03-31-2009, 01:40 PM
 
612 posts, read 1,008,580 times
Reputation: 406
Quote:
Originally Posted by JG183 View Post
Posted 31 Mar 2009, 10:50 am EDT, by Henry Blodget
in Investing, Recession, Banking

OK, not "positive", exactly, but certainly less negative than he's sounded over the past 18 months. NYU professor Nouriel Roubini, you'll recall, is known as "Dr. Doom", the most famous of the handful of economists who actually predicted the current debacle. A few days ago, after a speech in Italy, he was quoted as saying he might see some "light at the end of the tunnel". And he repeats a similiarly non-apocalyptic outlook on TechTicker.

To be clear: Roubini is NOT predicting an imminent recovery. He thinks that most economists are still way too bullish, that the stock market will retest its lows, and that unemployment will eventually rise over 10%. He just thinks that the quarter that is now ending, Q1, will be the worst rate of decline in the economy and that things will gradually stop deteriorating and then get better from here.

Of course there is recovery some where in the future. Unfortunately, it's not in the next couple of years. This economy has serious problems in it that are impossible to rectify in 1 or 2 years. It requires a change in job for more than 50% of the work force. That means half the people in this country need to lose their jobs and get new ones. The sad fact is, the government is trying to prevent the first step (job loss) from happening. You cannot get people into productive jobs without them first losing their unproductive ones. Recovery will be delayed until the government finally realizes it's making the problem worse.
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Old 03-31-2009, 01:58 PM
 
2,312 posts, read 7,504,019 times
Reputation: 908
Things will get worse before they get better, or things will get better before they get worse. I guarantee one of these things will happen, either sooner or later.
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