CNN Money: Northern NJ Real Estate Will Decline Through 2011 (apartments, to rent)

[MonkeyButler7000]

I think the important thing to remember with expensive housing markets like New Jersey is just how out-of-whack housing prices really are. A historically healthy and affordable median multiple (median home price/median income) is right around 3.0. In places like NY/NJ, it is not uncommon to have median multiples over 10.0. That is a big problem because it means that most housing is unaffordable for a majority of people. Places like NY/NJ, Boston, San Francisco have been able to get away with it because of the the wealth generated by the finance industry (and as a result becoming increasingly dependant on that industry). With the crash in finance, the chickens are coming home to roost. Looking at it that way, NJ has a LONG way to go before prices level out. However, in places like the ones I mentioned, heavily-restrictive zoning and "smart-growth" policies may have created a higher floor for the median multiple, meaning a permanant level of unaffordability in housing.

[halfoffpeak]

Originally Posted by MonkeyButler7000

However, in places like the ones I mentioned, heavily-restrictive zoning and "smart-growth" policies may have created a higher floor for the median multiple, meaning a permanant level of unaffordability in housing.

That's of course #3 argument in the list of RE-buy-now-cheerleading.
http://www.city-data.com/forum/8162469-post50.html
Observe that "local" has an even narrower meaning. It's a zone or a neighborhood. Many times this argument is morphed to "this particular house will never lose its value because it's unique".

[Lusitan]

Originally Posted by bluemask

oops, I am jealous too!

You and your "dark agenda"!

[MonkeyButler7000]

Originally Posted by halfoffpeak

That's of course #3 argument in the list of RE-buy-now-cheerleading.
http://www.city-data.com/forum/8162469-post50.html
Observe that "local" has an even narrower meaning. It's a zone or a neighborhood. Many times this argument is morphed to "this particular house will never lose its value because it's unique".

I hadn't seen that post before. Of course another possibility is that enough people move out of the state so that demand plummets and then housing prices fall more in line with national norms.

[theoakman]

Originally Posted by MonkeyButler7000

I think the important thing to remember with expensive housing markets like New Jersey is just how out-of-whack housing prices really are. A historically healthy and affordable median multiple (median home price/median income) is right around 3.0. In places like NY/NJ, it is not uncommon to have median multiples over 10.0. That is a big problem because it means that most housing is unaffordable for a majority of people. Places like NY/NJ, Boston, San Francisco have been able to get away with it because of the the wealth generated by the finance industry (and as a result becoming increasingly dependant on that industry). With the crash in finance, the chickens are coming home to roost. Looking at it that way, NJ has a LONG way to go before prices level out. However, in places like the ones I mentioned, heavily-restrictive zoning and "smart-growth" policies may have created a higher floor for the median multiple, meaning a permanant level of unaffordability in housing.

It's hard to know what is going to happen in towns that purposely prevented new building in the area. On one hand, they artificially constrained supply, which may have led to even higher price gains. The end result could end up being even larger price declines. I probably don't know enough to know which one happens. It will all depend on the demand side of things.

[PD517]

Originally Posted by theoakman

folks, this is what we call trying to put words in someone's mouth. Fortunately, the smart people on this board know you are dishonest. It's laughable that you would suggest to me to read my post before I hit submit when you were the one who probably wishes you could go back and hit the edit button without me knowing.

Originally Posted by theoakman

heh, I sure hope you aren't on this board looking for potential clients....

Originally Posted by bluemask

Marc,

For once I thought you are a RE professional who I may turn to in the future to buy/sell a property. However I found this post offensive. If you look at renters this way, how can we feel comfortable working with you when we finally turn into a buyer? Renting or buying, it's a personal choice. Everybody has his/her own financial situation. Truth is, you cannot convince someone to buy unless he/she is ready. That is OK that you failed to convince. But your post sounds as if home owners are living a far superior life over renters. Owning a home in another state, renting a single-family house here and actively looking for house to buy, I don't need some professional from RE to educate me and remind how DINGY my renter's life is.

:sigh:

This internet thing is a big place. I never understood why these real estate "professionals" keep coming on to various forums and want to risk their rep with such idiotic postings. At least sign up with a different screen name, not your real name, if you are going to get into debates and start putting down an entire class of people. Not a good choice business wise. There is this little thing called a search engine and what people these days tend to do - is search... Search and research someone before they do business with them. And when a potential client see's postings like these it WILL prevent them from doing business with you. The funny thing is how high forums like this rank in the search engines for a given "persons name" search. SEO 101 + Reputation Management.


Wasn't there another Morris County real estate professional who used to post the same types of things here - then suddenly stopped posting a couple of months ago? At least they learned, or maybe they came back as an "alter ego"

Online Reputation Management for Real Estate Professionals


Real Estate 2.0 Hot Topic: Online Reputation Management | Future of Real Estate Marketing

Local Search Will Affect Your Business - How You Can Win | Future of Real Estate Marketing

Seth's Blog: Where have all the agents gone?

Seth's Blog: Advice for real estate agents (quit now!)

[Marc Paolella]

Originally Posted by bluemask

Marc,

For once I thought you are a RE professional who I may turn to in the future to buy/sell a property. However I found this post offensive. If you look at renters this way, how can we feel comfortable working with you when we finally turn into a buyer? Renting or buying, it's a personal choice. Everybody has his/her own financial situation. Truth is, you cannot convince someone to buy unless he/she is ready. That is OK that you failed to convince. But your post sounds as if home owners are living a far superior life over renters. Owning a home in another state, renting a single-family house here and actively looking for house to buy, I don't need some professional from RE to educate me and remind how DINGY my renter's life is.

Nonsense. Stop making it a class war. I am comparing the lifestyle of the typical unhappy apartment dweller with the absolute bliss experienced by someone living in even the smallest 2BR Ranch in the suburbs. Owning your own home is the pinnacle. Renting your own home is also acceptable if that is what your conditions dictate. But life in a human warehouse? No thanks. Nobody WANTS that. It is something that is SETTLED for.

-Marc

[Marc Paolella]

Originally Posted by PD517

:sigh:

This internet thing is a big place. I never understood why these real estate "professionals" keep coming on to various forums and want to risk their rep with such idiotic postings. At least sign up with a different screen name, not your real name, if you are going to get into debates and start putting down an entire class of people. Not a good choice business wise. There is this little thing called a search engine and what people these days tend to do - is search... Search and research someone before they do business with them. And when a potential client see's postings like these it WILL prevent them from doing business with you. The funny thing is how high forums like this rank in the search engines for a given "persons name" search. SEO 101 + Reputation Management.


Wasn't there another Morris County real estate professional who used to post the same types of things here - then suddenly stopped posting a couple of months ago? At least they learned, or maybe they came back as an "alter ego"

Online Reputation Management for Real Estate Professionals


Real Estate 2.0 Hot Topic: Online Reputation Management | Future of Real Estate Marketing

Local Search Will Affect Your Business - How You Can Win | Future of Real Estate Marketing

Seth's Blog: Where have all the agents gone?

Seth's Blog: Advice for real estate agents (quit now!)

Interesting. Yet my City-Data approval rating is over 40% (Rep count - 10 divided by total posts). So the public is enjoying my diatribes. Actually, my 42% rep approval rating far exceeds almost anyone else on here. And yes, I have gotten some business from City, as well as Trulia and Zillow. My clients seem to appreciate working with a tough negotiator who tells it like it is, rather than a smiling pusillanimous pipsqueak who suffers fools like the terminally constipated Bears who frequent this board and need a verbal spanking every now and again.

Actually on Trulia and Zillow I am a cream puff. This board is way more fun. Nothing wrong with a little verbal skirmishing for entertainment. And I refuse to use an alias. Anyone who wants to avoid me based on my views or expressions thereof can solicit someone else. It's not like there are only 2 or 3 of us!!!

-Marc

[tahiti]

Originally Posted by Marc Paolella

Interesting. Yet my City-Data approval rating is over 40% (Rep count - 10 divided by total posts). So the public is enjoying my diatribes. Actually, my 42% rep approval rating far exceeds almost anyone else on here. And yes, I have gotten some business from City, as well as Trulia and Zillow. My clients seem to appreciate working with a tough negotiator who tells it like it is, rather than a smiling pusillanimous pipsqueak who suffers fools like the terminally constipated Bears who frequent this board and need a verbal spanking every now and again.

Actually on Trulia and Zillow I am a cream puff. This board is way more fun. Nothing wrong with a little verbal skirmishing for entertainment. And I refuse to use an alias. Anyone who wants to avoid me based on my views or expressions thereof can solicit someone else. It's not like there are only 2 or 3 of us!!!

-Marc

LOL. 42% "approval" rating b/c of "your diatribes"? Surely you jest.

[halfoffpeak]

Originally Posted by Marc Paolella

Interesting. Yet my City-Data approval rating is over 40% (Rep count - 10 divided by total posts). So the public is enjoying my diatribes. Actually, my 42% rep approval rating far exceeds almost anyone else on here. And yes, I have gotten some business from City, as well as Trulia and Zillow. My clients seem to appreciate working with a tough negotiator who tells it like it is, rather than a smiling pusillanimous pipsqueak who suffers fools like the terminally constipated Bears who frequent this board and need a verbal spanking every now and again.

Hey Mr Popularity, I am sure your buying clients will love you even more once they realize that you negotiated (toughly) inflated prices for them.