Offer: What percentage below asking? (Edison, Middlesex: comparable sales, for sale, real estate)

[nousagon]

We're looking at a home in the Vineyard section of Edison. Current asking is 350k (original asking 2 months ago was 365k). Trying to determine what an appropriate offer would be, and there aren't many recent sales at all in that area to base it on. I've seen predictions that prices will fall another 10% this coming year, but offering 20% less (280k) seems a low ball that will quickly be rejected.

Any feedback?

Also, are there any sites that show a longer timeline for sales? I'd really like to see all of the sales going back 3 - 5 years for this specific neighborhood.

[pfwnj]

Source: NJ Tax Records Search

If you haven't already, look up the property you're trying to buy using that website. Set the county to "Middlesex" and the town to "All" (it's at the bottom of the dropdown). If the address is "123 Random Street", type in "123 random" and then hit search. You should be able to find the tax list/deed records and get an idea of what the house has done over time (if there were sales recently). If there haven't been any comparable sales recently that is something you can use to negotiate with - "Look, no one else is selling their house, so you can negotiate with me or go back to not selling your house". Talk to your agent obviously, but a 20% lowball might not be rejected out of hand.

It looks like there aren't many records for Edison prior to 2003, so this graph doesn't really give you a history of the place. I wouldn't trust this graph's accuracy prior to 2003. But that's the data available.

Good luck!

[Delphi]

Originally Posted by nousagon

We're looking at a home in the Vineyard section of Edison. Current asking is 350k (original asking 2 months ago was 365k). Trying to determine what an appropriate offer would be, and there aren't many recent sales at all in that area to base it on. I've seen predictions that prices will fall another 10% this coming year, but offering 20% less (280k) seems a low ball that will quickly be rejected.

Any feedback?

Also, are there any sites that show a longer timeline for sales? I'd really like to see all of the sales going back 3 - 5 years for this specific neighborhood.

Find out what the last sales price was. Sometimes trulia.com/zillow.com will show that. If not ask your agent. He/she might be able to help you out with that.
If last sale was pre-2000, then use 4% annual compounding to arrive at your estimated price. If it was bought post-2000, the you might want to "guess" the late 2003 price(that is the current market price IMO) and offer that and see how it goes. If the seller has made some recent upgrade, please price that in.

Don't worry about insulting sellers. They never worried about insulting buyers in 2001-2006 period. If your offer doesn't get accepted, then move on. Better deals available.

[splitchin]

In our experience, our realtor was able to find out for us the lowest ballapark the sellers would settle for by asking the listing agent. We adjusted our offer around that to account for negotiating up. Just another approach... It seems some sellers are finding it very hard to accept low prices. Good luck.

[Spincycle]

Originally Posted by nousagon

We're looking at a home in the Vineyard section of Edison. Current asking is 350k (original asking 2 months ago was 365k). Trying to determine what an appropriate offer would be, and there aren't many recent sales at all in that area to base it on. I've seen predictions that prices will fall another 10% this coming year, but offering 20% less (280k) seems a low ball that will quickly be rejected.

Any feedback?

Also, are there any sites that show a longer timeline for sales? I'd really like to see all of the sales going back 3 - 5 years for this specific neighborhood.

I'd offer flat 300k but no more than 317k (which is 9.4% concession).
There's really 2 psychological thresholds on low balling the seller/broker.
1. Going to a double digit concession 10%+
2. Going into the 200's club (versus 300 club).

[Delphi]

Originally Posted by splitchin

It seems some sellers are finding it very hard to accept low prices. Good luck.

That depends upon how long the house has been on the market. If it's a new one, then seller might find it hard to accept low offer. If it's been more than 6/8 months, then they might accept.

But if the buyer is doing his home work, he should be able to "guess" what the market value of the house would be in his area.

Buyer should not worry about if seller will mind his offer. If seller doesn't like it, buyer should be ready to move on (don't fall in love until you move in).

[Bill Keegan]

Originally Posted by nousagon

We're looking at a home in the Vineyard section of Edison. Current asking is 350k (original asking 2 months ago was 365k). Trying to determine what an appropriate offer would be, and there aren't many recent sales at all in that area to base it on. I've seen predictions that prices will fall another 10% this coming year, but offering 20% less (280k) seems a low ball that will quickly be rejected.

Any feedback?

Also, are there any sites that show a longer timeline for sales? I'd really like to see all of the sales going back 3 - 5 years for this specific neighborhood.

"What percentage below asking?" is the wrong question. Your offer shouldn't be based on the asking price, but on your evaluation of the house's worth. The seller may have ovverpriced it or not. We don't know. The seller may have greatly underestimated it's worth. We don't know. The right question is "What's this house worth?" So do your homework and figure out what it's worth to you, and offer based on that and your negotiating strategy, not based on where the seller has it listed.
As to finding 3-5 years of history for the neighborhood; this should be fairly easy for your real estate agent to get to you. Have you asked for it?

[Delphi]

Originally Posted by Bill Keegan

"What percentage below asking?" is the wrong question. Your offer shouldn't be based on the asking price, but on your evaluation of the house's worth. The seller may have ovverpriced it or not. We don't know. The seller may have greatly underestimated it's worth. We don't know. The right question is "What's this house worth?" So do your homework and figure out what it's worth to you, and offer based on that and your negotiating strategy, not based on where the seller has it listed.
As to finding 3-5 years of history for the neighborhood; this should be fairly easy for your real estate agent to get to you. Have you asked for it?

Exactly. Buyer should do homework to figure out the market value of the house. Recent comps are of great help. Also look at the last sale price and year of that house.