How much smaller in the fall inventory of homes compared to spring market? (for sale, houses)

[sweetpotato]

Well, we lost a house to a higher bidder, I'm feeling sad about it. Think we'll have to wait until the fall or spring for fresh inventory and start over since I've pretty much seen everything in our location and price range. I'm a first-time buyer and was wondering how the fall inventory of homes for sale is compared to the spring? Is it markedly less?

And an unrelated question - what percent of accepted offers go through to closing? (As you can see, I have trouble letting go of the house and want to hold on to hope.)

[NatasNJ]

From what I have gathered this Spring crop of housing is horrible in terms of quantity. Not many people are selling right now because they know that selling today means not getting top dollar and not as much as they would have 2 years ago. So you only see people selling who have to really in my area.

I am hoping the people holding out selling will get fed up and sell this summer or fall. But so far the selection out there is limited and mostly junk.

[mumra]

A well priced house can create a bidding war even in todays market! A friend was recently outbid by 40K and there were 9 other offers to boot. The house sold for $375. It seems like there are lines for housing located in desirable neighborhoods in that 300k – 400k price range. you just have to find your diamond in the rough and act fast.

Get the upper hand on other buyers. Tips to help you make your offer more attractive even if your offer is lower than the others:
Have an approval letter
Have a healthy down payment, 20% is nice
Set a closing date that is most convenient to the seller some sellers want to get out ASAP so be flexible offer a 30 day closing.

[MoorestownResident]

Summer 2007-Summer 2008 in NJ. Now people are losing bids on what's out there.

[gould71]

Normally there is more in the spring than the fall because of families not wanting to move during the school year. But like NatasNJ stated, people are probably holding out because they fear they cannot get top dollar for their houses.

A house of my street must have been in pre-forclosure (on line it said that 3rd party approval was needed) and was on the market for $350k when they bought 3 years ago for at least $100k more than that.... So there are some deals out there. Of course, my benefit from this sale is lower home value!

[JG183]

Originally Posted by gould71

Normally there is more in the spring than the fall because of families not wanting to move during the school year.

I never understood this rationale.

e.g. if a family is moving from an apt. to a house, both in the same school district, why would the time of year matter ?

[goonsquad]

Originally Posted by NatasNJ

From what I have gathered this Spring crop of housing is horrible in terms of quantity. Not many people are selling right now because they know that selling today means not getting top dollar and not as much as they would have 2 years ago. So you only see people selling who have to really in my area.

I am hoping the people holding out selling will get fed up and sell this summer or fall. But so far the selection out there is limited and mostly junk.

Nationally, existing home inventories in March were about 10% less than they were in March of last year and about on par with where they were in 2007. Of course, inventories began their rapid rise in mid 2005 and at this point are WAY above historical norms. I wouldn't worry too much about losing out on this offer. Despite the government's and financial institutions' best efforts to put a false bottom under the inflated prices, they will continue to drop. Look at the case-schiller data for the new york region. Sale prices for homes are currently dropping at their fastest year-over-year pace. Rate of decline will slow and then level off (and more than likely degrade slowly for a few years) before you'll have any risk of seeing prices rise again. The current huge inventory of unsold homes necessarily implies that a drop in prices will continue. When we see inventories come back down to historical norms, this will be a signal that price declines are subsiding.

[NatasNJ]

Originally Posted by JG183

I never understood this rationale.

e.g. if a family is moving from an apt. to a house, both in the same school district, why would the time of year matter ?

I think that scenario makes up a small % of sales.

And people don't like to look at houses when it is typically colder out hence lower sales #'s and listings in winter. Add to that most hoildays fall in winter which makes most people not want to list/clean from Oct - Jan.

[sweetpotato]

Thank you everyone, for the informative advice. It's amazing and still so hard to believe and see that prices are coming down when all of my adult years until now, prices have only gone up like crazy each year.

[JG183]

Originally Posted by goonsquad

The current huge inventory of unsold homes necessarily implies that a drop in prices will continue.

or, it means those homes are undesirable, for any number of reasons.

i.e. they wouldn't sell, in any market...

but, of course, the posts on here lamenting missing out on a house (due to being outbid), are all outliers...