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Old 06-03-2009, 07:52 AM
 
Location: Montgomery County, PA
2,771 posts, read 3,530,005 times
Reputation: 589
Quote:
Originally Posted by bwt92 View Post
How are you so sure?

Your graph is obsolete (preliminary data from May 13). The same site reports postive YOY change in contracts UP 2.2%
That's the first time I saw those numbers. So it looks like sales are moving towards (but still not at) normal levels, as affordability is returning to historical norms.

Quote:
You either know better than Obama and his economists (I don't think so) or you believe that Obama does not want the recovery of the american economy.
No, this isn't true. I don't think that Bernanke would disagree with me that the administration can't fix house prices forever.

What they are trying to do is wind down this excessive mountain of debt in an orderly manner. They are worried about the possibility of the shock to the system that would accompany a fast correction in asset prices, so they're trying to go for a controlled demolition instead. That is not going to prevent asset prices returning to historical norms, it will make them take a little longer to get there.
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Old 06-03-2009, 09:13 AM
 
12 posts, read 9,693 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elflord1973 View Post
That's the first time I saw those numbers. So it looks like sales are moving towards (but still not at) normal levels, as affordability is returning to historical norms.
Always true until proven false. No matter what the data is, it proves your point.
Quote:

No, this isn't true. I don't think that Bernanke would disagree with me that the administration can't fix house prices forever.

What they are trying to do is wind down this excessive mountain of debt in an orderly manner. They are worried about the possibility of the shock to the system that would accompany a fast correction in asset prices, so they're trying to go for a controlled demolition instead. That is not going to prevent asset prices returning to historical norms, it will make them take a little longer to get there.
You contradict yourself. Earlier obama was loosing the battle, now he is wining. Not making sense
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Old 06-03-2009, 09:57 AM
 
Location: Montgomery County, PA
2,771 posts, read 3,530,005 times
Reputation: 589
Quote:
Originally Posted by bwt92 View Post
Always true until proven false. No matter what the data is, it proves your point.
Yes, it does. There is a reason for this -- I adjust and update my views as the data changes, instead of trying to do it the other way around. That way, my view is always consistent with the data.

Here is one example of a thread where I argued that while affordability was still not quite at historically normal levels, it was getting closer:

HOI numbers are out, prices down and affordability up


Quote:
You contradict yourself. Earlier obama was loosing the battle, now he is wining. Not making sense
Good god, why am I debating someone who can't spell "winning" or "losing" ? I didn't make any blanket judgment on whether he was "winning" or "losing".
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Old 06-03-2009, 11:04 AM
 
12 posts, read 9,693 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elflord1973 View Post
I didn't make any blanket judgment on whether he was "winning" or "losing".
Quote:
Originally Posted by elflord1973 View Post
Obama is trying to prop up housing prices, but it's a losing battle.
Contradiction

but ok -- being a bear (or bull) means to tailor data to view
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Old 06-03-2009, 11:17 AM
 
Location: Montgomery County, PA
2,771 posts, read 3,530,005 times
Reputation: 589
Quote:
Originally Posted by bwt92 View Post
Contradiction
There is no contradiction. To say that propping up housing prices is ultimately a losing battle is not a blanket judgment that the administration is "losing".

Quote:
but ok -- being a bear (or bull) means to tailor data to view
Being a bear (or bull) is a point of view that one should form based on the facts.

One can either choose to be a bull or bear based on the data, or they can choose the data based on whether they are a bull or a bear.

There are some who see accomodating to new facts as a capitulation or weakness. They like to show their "strength" by holding onto their point of view regardless of the facts. But that is not "strong". It is dumb.
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Old 06-03-2009, 11:24 AM
 
12 posts, read 9,693 times
Reputation: 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by elflord1973 View Post
There are some who see accomodating to new facts as a capitulation or weakness. They like to show their "strength" by holding onto their point of view regardless of the facts. But that is not "strong". It is dumb.

The point of this discussion is that sales are picking up. You first denied it then you dismissed it. Someone is not "accomodating" to new facts
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Old 06-03-2009, 11:49 AM
 
Location: Montgomery County, PA
2,771 posts, read 3,530,005 times
Reputation: 589
Quote:
Originally Posted by bwt92 View Post
The point of this discussion is that sales are picking up. You first denied it then you dismissed it. Someone is not "accomodating" to new facts
No, I didn't dismiss it. I acknowledged that sales are picking up. That would reduce the likelihood of prices overshooting on the downside.

What it will not do is sustain the bubble indefinitely.
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Old 06-03-2009, 12:05 PM
 
1,308 posts, read 2,074,353 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bwt92 View Post
The point of this discussion is that sales are picking up. You first denied it then you dismissed it. Someone is not "accomodating" to new facts
Sales have picked up recently just like EVERY Spring. That is to be expected and no one is arguing that point. But as sales increase prices continue to decline to some degree.

I know in my area there has been the expected rush on the few good listings once interest rates bumped up. So a bunch went pending recently. I am in the camp of prices continue to dip for awhile but I also want to buy a house now. The selection in the towns I am looking is dismal and there are VERY VERY few listings coming onto the market. Making me insane.
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Old 06-03-2009, 12:27 PM
 
12 posts, read 9,693 times
Reputation: 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by NatasNJ View Post
Sales have picked up recently just like EVERY Spring. That is to be expected and no one is arguing that point. But as sales increase prices continue to decline to some degree.

Not true. Sales are up compare to spring 08.

Data shows that real prices will not come down much, if at all. So if you find something you like buy it.
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Old 06-03-2009, 12:29 PM
 
837 posts, read 406,079 times
Reputation: 186
Quote:
Originally Posted by bwt92 View Post
Not true. Sales are up compare to spring 08.

Data shows that real prices will not come down much, if at all. So if you find something you like buy it.
With interest rates starting to rise people on the fence are going to take the plunge
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