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Old 06-02-2009, 12:21 PM
 
1,931 posts, read 3,402,267 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elflord1973 View Post
yes, you pretty much got this right. m.o.m was about 2.5% for NY metro, fourth consecutive record. y.o.y it's just under 12.

You mean prices are still dropping? NO!! My realtor told me.....
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Old 06-02-2009, 12:25 PM
 
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I was told apprasials are coming in SUPER low now. Where if a comp'd home sold 3 months ago they are using that comp and subtracting 1%/per month to come up with new appraisal. Which will surely come into problem mortgage time unless the house already took that into account with listing price.
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Old 06-02-2009, 12:36 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NatasNJ View Post
I was told apprasials are coming in SUPER low now. Where if a comp'd home sold 3 months ago they are using that comp and subtracting 1%/per month to come up with new appraisal. Which will surely come into problem mortgage time unless the house already took that into account with listing price.
Based on the March m-o-m case schiller data, the 1% monthly decline formula used by the appraisers is far underestimating the current pace of decline indicated by actual sale prices.
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Old 06-02-2009, 12:53 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goonsquad View Post
Based on the March m-o-m case schiller data, the 1% monthly decline formula used by the appraisers is far underestimating the current pace of decline indicated by actual sale prices.
This was for the SJ area. Not sure that matters much...
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Old 06-02-2009, 01:03 PM
 
231 posts, read 585,586 times
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Addressing this month's pending sales numbers:

I admit a little surprise that they were as high as they are, both in the Northeast and in NJ. For both, the uptick in m-o-m new contracts puts April 2009 just about flat with April 2008. If these numbers hold up and go through as sales, that will indicate a bottoming in terms of number of sales. While this bottom is a step in the right direction, it by no means indicates that all is healed in the housing market in NJ. As stated numerous times on this board, sales data will need to uptick from current at/near all time lows (based on year over year data, not the obviously increasing m-o-m number), inventory will need to decrease, and only then will home prices stop falling.

Feedback on the correlation between sales and prices and my assertion that sales price bottoming and recovery will lag sales and inventory data recovery?
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Old 06-02-2009, 01:13 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
4,151 posts, read 5,007,344 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MoorestownResident View Post
Not only that but sales are up 33% in the northeast suggesting that the volume going on out there is more than foreclosure activity.

"Pending home sales rose about 33% in the Northeast, and about 10% in the Midwest. Pending home sales were flat in the South and rose 2% in the West.

"Given that most of the gains in sales were in the more stable Northeast and Midwest markets, it appears that foreclosed properties were less of a factor given that most of the foreclosures have been occurring in the West and the South," wrote Millan Mulrainem, an economist for TD Securities."
yes, these are all real sales -- foreclosures & short sales are almost a non-factor in these numbers.

my friend and real estate advisor say's 80% of his pending short sales fall through because the banks are slow and do not communicate. He will no longer entertain someone looking at those type of properties because they're a waste of time and resources.
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Old 06-02-2009, 01:14 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bababua View Post
Yipppppeee all is well. Get out and buy buy buy buy buy!! Rates who cares? Prices who cares??? Just buy buy buy! Forget the price declines! Forget the job loss! Forget the foreclosures! Just buy because we all know houses will jump 20% a year for the next 100 years!!!

the undesirable homes will have a price drop.

desirable homes are selling in less than a month.








(you may now return to your regularly scheduled doom & gloom fest)

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Old 06-02-2009, 01:16 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
4,151 posts, read 5,007,344 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NatasNJ View Post
I was told apprasials are coming in SUPER low now. Where if a comp'd home sold 3 months ago they are using that comp and subtracting 1%/per month to come up with new appraisal. Which will surely come into problem mortgage time unless the house already took that into account with listing price.
so if a house sold for $400K three months ago, it's appraising for $388K -- if both parties want to get it done, $12K won't be a deal breaker.
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Old 06-02-2009, 01:19 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
4,151 posts, read 5,007,344 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goonsquad View Post
Addressing this month's pending sales numbers:

I admit a little surprise that they were as high as they are, both in the Northeast and in NJ.
most of the super-bears are suprised, hence their mad rush to find graphs/charts/ouija boards to support their fast-fading dream of economic calamity.
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Old 06-02-2009, 01:20 PM
 
1,931 posts, read 3,402,267 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JG183 View Post
the undesirable homes will have a price drop.

desirable homes are selling in less than a month.








(you may now return to your regularly scheduled doom & gloom fest)


Wrong silly goose. You mean houses that are priced accordingly will sell in less then a month. I agree with that. Homes that are overpriced will sit. I dont think anyone will argue that. I also think that everyone on this board agrees houses will continue to tank in terms of sales prices. No big deal silly goose.
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