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Old 06-22-2009, 09:11 AM
 
Location: Montgomery County, PA
2,771 posts, read 3,767,025 times
Reputation: 594

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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghuber View Post
I think it would help. I see the 8k credit has gotten a considerable number of people off the fences, I'd imagine a 15k credit would really help... But for it to be successful in NJ, they have to drop the income restrictions.
It will help temporarily prop prices up. When private lenders do this, it's "predatory", but when the govt do it, it's good.
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Old 06-22-2009, 09:38 AM
 
Location: Home
1,479 posts, read 1,871,728 times
Reputation: 598
Quote:
Originally Posted by gagaliya View Post
to be honest, i have looked all over hoboken and it's slim picking at best. I dont understand what the obsession is with those crappy walkup brownstones, they are old and look terrible. Yet everyone seem to love them there.

The few reasonably price(~400k 1br) high rises like skyclub and 700grove are located in such ****ty area, next to empty lots and car repair shops.

The nice high rises by the waterfront are all in the 500k+ range. Actually i take it back, even those are not good because there is absolutely no transportation around there.

I know people hate jersey city, but by comparison the high rises in downtown jc/newport is so much better in very way - next to transportation and neighborhood.
Um, the town is only a mile long. Those waterfront places are less than a half mile from transport.

126 bus on Washington Street (or Willow) direct to Port Authority.
Ferries at 14th street and at the Lackawanna station
Path train at Lackawanna station.
Light rail at 14th, 9th and Lackawanna Stations


AAMOF, I think Hoboken has better connections to Manhattan than a lot of areas in the 5 boroughs!!!!!

But anyway....

As for the brownstones? It all depends on where you look and what you are looking for. There are some GORGEOUS ones ($$!) along Hudson Street (1 street closer to the river than Washington) and a lot of nice ones on Washington.

We had to take ours and redo the floors (remove carpet and put a second layer of hardwood on them!) and redo the entertainment area around the fireplace, but the place is really nice.

Provided, of course, you are not looking for a 3 bedroom 2 bath duplex with a loft and a balcony. For some reason they just did not build them like that in the early 1900's. I guess they just pooped less!
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Old 06-23-2009, 08:32 AM
 
692 posts, read 1,688,126 times
Reputation: 156
Time Magazine's job is to sell magazines. I think a prediction of 40% is far too much melodrama and theatrics.

That said, I think what many people fail to realize is what has to happen, and what would be happening, if there was a 40% decline in prices and more importantly, in order for housing prices to actually fall 40%. No, will not happen.

Right now there is a buyer for every single house on the market in NJ. There is just one problem . . . sellers expectations. It's that simple. Yes, there is a supply and demand arguement, but the market is not "efficient" so to speak right now and what is driving the boat, but not bringing prices down accordingly is "inventory" and availability. Everyone has a story about this house or that house, or my block, of that neighborhood, etc. More expcetions than norms.

There is a smaller pool of buyers right now, vis a vis capital markets, employment/unemployment, certainly the credit markets, and the overall economic landscape. There is a large inventory right now.

40%? No. Will not happen. Maybe I am being the eternal optimist, but the realist in me says no.
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Old 06-23-2009, 09:57 AM
 
Location: Newport Jersey City,NJ
588 posts, read 1,296,271 times
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well said, with two additions

- The area/neighborhood is a big factor, in the boom people will buy anything, In the bust, certain areas for example in newark etc...there's always 1 buyer for 1 house is not true. Noone wants to buy there.

- Another major obstacle is the difficulty to get mortgage, especially for condo. There are so many restrictions, have to x percent sold, have x percent owner occupancy, etc.. Many well qualified buyers cant get the mortgage simply due to the fact the banks cannot sell the mortgage to fannie. So they all ended up trying to get it from a few local lenders, a lot of headache.

In NY/NJ at least there a few good local lenders, when i tried to buy a unit in philly that doesnt qualify for fannie, you can just forget about it. Either all cash or no deal.


Quote:
Originally Posted by EANJ View Post
Time Magazine's job is to sell magazines. I think a prediction of 40% is far too much melodrama and theatrics.

That said, I think what many people fail to realize is what has to happen, and what would be happening, if there was a 40% decline in prices and more importantly, in order for housing prices to actually fall 40%. No, will not happen.

Right now there is a buyer for every single house on the market in NJ. There is just one problem . . . sellers expectations. It's that simple. Yes, there is a supply and demand arguement, but the market is not "efficient" so to speak right now and what is driving the boat, but not bringing prices down accordingly is "inventory" and availability. Everyone has a story about this house or that house, or my block, of that neighborhood, etc. More expcetions than norms.

There is a smaller pool of buyers right now, vis a vis capital markets, employment/unemployment, certainly the credit markets, and the overall economic landscape. There is a large inventory right now.

40%? No. Will not happen. Maybe I am being the eternal optimist, but the realist in me says no.
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Old 06-23-2009, 10:02 AM
 
498 posts, read 574,557 times
Reputation: 109
Quote:
Originally Posted by elflord1973 View Post
It will help temporarily prop prices up. When private lenders do this, it's "predatory", but when the govt do it, it's good.
A 15k tax credit is guaranteed to crash home prices 4 years from now for the same reason a no money down mortgage popped the market in the first place.
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Old 06-23-2009, 10:15 AM
 
505 posts, read 1,119,103 times
Reputation: 194
Quote:
Originally Posted by gagaliya View Post
well said, with two additions

- The area/neighborhood is a big factor, in the boom people will buy anything, In the bust, certain areas for example in newark etc...there's always 1 buyer for 1 house is not true. Noone wants to buy there.

In NY/NJ at least there a few good local lenders, when i tried to buy a unit in philly that doesnt qualify for fannie, you can just forget about it. Either all cash or no deal.
This is a fantastic point. When things get right, and prices go down, you will start to see a contraction of gentficiation efforts and buyers will, rightly become pickier. In this instance, the 1st rule of real estate still applies, location, location, location. If you live in an area where people dream of and strive to live in, you will have an inherent advantage as opposed to buying a place in "some town." The sellers in those "boom towns" face the most bitter pill when things turn south, because their house, while in a decent area, is in the same price range as similar homes in stellar communities.
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Old 06-23-2009, 10:17 AM
 
Location: New Jersey
1,395 posts, read 2,071,347 times
Reputation: 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by theoakman View Post
A 15k tax credit is guaranteed to crash home prices 4 years from now
please explain this...
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Old 06-23-2009, 10:20 AM
 
78 posts, read 77,715 times
Reputation: 39
Quote:
That said, I think what many people fail to realize is what has to happen, and what would be happening, if there was a 40% decline in prices and more importantly, in order for housing prices to actually fall 40%. No, will not happen.
Care to enlighten us? Stamping your foot and saying, "no!" doesn't change the fundamentals.

A further 40% decline in the NY Metro Commuter area brings us back, roughly, to 2000 levels of house prices. While I know everyone was busy fighting off sabertooth tigers and starving to death back in the harsh ancient long long ago of the distant year 2000, try to remember that life really wasn't so bad, and that even though Ug killed your wife, you at least got to stick him with a mastadon tooth spear after the next hunt.

All that has to happen for a further decline in prices is for the fundamentals of the market to basically stay as they are. Lending standards returning to sanity would, all on its own, bring the market all the way back down to pre-bubble levels. The bubble had no other fundamental component - real income stagnated, the savings rate declined, supply of houses went up, the entire US population didn't magically have more money. Literally the only fundamental that enabled the market to do what it did was the degradation of lending standards that allowed people to get more loan than was sane or safe. And here we are.

40% down? Depending on how long people can hold their breath underwater, it could take years to get there. But when the nation wakes up from the fever dream it's had for the past decade, it will be right back where it started.
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Old 06-23-2009, 10:23 AM
 
Location: New Jersey
1,395 posts, read 2,071,347 times
Reputation: 279
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/exi...rise-24-in-may
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Old 06-23-2009, 10:25 AM
 
268 posts, read 513,011 times
Reputation: 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by EANJ View Post
Time Magazine's job is to sell magazines. I think a prediction of 40% is far too much melodrama and theatrics.

That said, I think what many people fail to realize is what has to happen, and what would be happening, if there was a 40% decline in prices and more importantly, in order for housing prices to actually fall 40%. No, will not happen.

Right now there is a buyer for every single house on the market in NJ. There is just one problem . . . sellers expectations. It's that simple. Yes, there is a supply and demand arguement, but the market is not "efficient" so to speak right now and what is driving the boat, but not bringing prices down accordingly is "inventory" and availability. Everyone has a story about this house or that house, or my block, of that neighborhood, etc. More expcetions than norms.

There is a smaller pool of buyers right now, vis a vis capital markets, employment/unemployment, certainly the credit markets, and the overall economic landscape. There is a large inventory right now.

40%? No. Will not happen. Maybe I am being the eternal optimist, but the realist in me says no.
I agree. Unlike other areas of the country, NJ is not overbuilt for the dense population that it has. Actually, because of contruction and watershed restrictions (Like the Highlands Act) there is very little buildable land in the northern part of the state until you get out in far western NJ. As population increases, and few new houses are being built, the value of the existing homes will rise.
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