Case shiller - prices rise first time in almost 3 years. (Montclair: sale, lofts) - Page 6 - City-Data Forum

theoakman · 07-30-2009, 09:27 AM

Shiller was asked about it and first off, the seasonal adjusted data came in down again. Second, Shiller said that the index fails to account for the fact that the government has been suspending foreclosures which puts an artificial upward pressure on the index. Unless the government plans on letting deliquent borrowers to live in their houses for free forever, we are still going down.

It's pretty funny how you somehow try to cling to any manufactured positive news without being able to objectively analyze what's happening. On top of that, you have these amazing ability to ignore any objective analysis that counters your agenda. Btw...how did the indices tied to NJ do for Case Shiller? I thought "all real estate is local". Check that one out and get back to us.

elflord1973 · 07-30-2009, 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theoakman

Shiller was asked about it and first off, the seasonal adjusted data came in down again. Second, Shiller said that the index fails to account for the fact that the government has been suspending foreclosures which puts an artificial upward pressure on the index. Unless the government plans on letting deliquent borrowers to live in their houses for free forever, we are still going down.

It's pretty funny how you somehow try to cling to any manufactured positive news without being able to objectively analyze what's happening. On top of that, you have these amazing ability to ignore any objective analysis that counters your agenda. Btw...how did the indices tied to NJ do for Case Shiller? I thought "all real estate is local". Check that one out and get back to us.

The NY metro market numbers were almost exactly the same as last month.

There is plenty of upward pressure (you left out the 8k tax credit, which those with almost no savings can leverage anywhere from 5 to 1 up to 28 to 1 ... ), there's little doubt that the market is not going up any time soon.

The question is, how long will it take to correct ? It's clear that the administration and congress want to pump air into this dying ponzi scheme until its last gasp.

theoakman · 07-30-2009, 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by elflord1973

The NY metro market numbers were almost exactly the same as last month.

There is plenty of upward pressure (you left out the 8k tax credit, which those with almost no savings can leverage anywhere from 5 to 1 up to 28 to 1 ... ), there's little doubt that the market is not going up any time soon.

The question is, how long will it take to correct ? It's clear that the administration and congress want to pump air into this dying ponzi scheme until its last gasp.

I'm not sure. I cannot predict how many stupid decisions our politicians will make anymore. Their actions in October stretched beyond what I ever thought they were capable of by a full order of magnitude. It's only a matter of time before they get the idea to pass a 12 trillion dollar stimulus package.

Ninjahedge · 07-30-2009, 12:32 PM

12 trillion is not the main concern. It is where and how they spend it.

WTH is up with that $4500 towards a new car thing they have on all the commercials now? Great, we are all in trouble, so lets encourage people to buy, with credit, a new car.

Maybe if they made that available for any car that had high MPG standards we would get somewhere, but $4500 on any?

As for the all the signs that are being posted of a possible recovery, a recovery is not a recovery until it sticks around for a while. When I see homes selling well for a solid quarter, semester and year, I will breathe a lot easier.....

BTW, Debt is only good if there is something available that is WORTH getting into debt over. Debt in and of itself is overrated.

elflord1973 · 07-30-2009, 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ninjahedge

12 trillion is not the main concern. It is where and how they spend it.

WTH is up with that $4500 towards a new car thing they have on all the commercials now? Great, we are all in trouble, so lets encourage people to buy, with credit, a new car.

Maybe if they made that available for any car that had high MPG standards we would get somewhere, but $4500 on any?

I thought the fine print was loaded up with politically correct nonsense about the old car having to have low gas mileage and the new one having requirement X for cars, Y for SUVs, etc etc.

They're quite literally paying for the destruction of property to keep car manufacturers in business.

Maybe they can also pay people to torch their houses, to clear out the excess inventory (I hope the politications aren't reading this)

Ninjahedge · 07-30-2009, 02:08 PM

Maybe it is just similar to increasing the Medicare prescription allowance but not restricting the prices the Pharms can charge for those prescriptions. Indirect cash to those they wanted to pay off in the first place.

ghuber · 07-30-2009, 03:45 PM

I said a couple months back the real estate market in nothern NJ was stabilizing... I remember being blasted by people who said it was going to drop 40-50%. Just not going to happen, time to face the facts. We have another 10% in price declines to go, max... I don't think we'll see much more then 30% peak to trough.

Also keep in mind, a $15,000 home buyer tax credit is on the way. If they approve it, and manage to keep interest rates down, while improving the economy the market is going to be on fire.

I personally find it a little troubling they are going to reinflate the bubble, but since I can't do a thing about it, oh well. If they increase the credit, and keep rates low, I'm game.

Despite Gains in Home Sales, Real Recovery Is Still Elusive - Real Estate * US * News * Story - CNBC.com

ordinar · 07-30-2009, 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ghuber

I said a couple months back the real estate market in nothern NJ was stabilizing... I remember being blasted by people who said it was going to drop 40-50%. Just not going to happen, time to face the facts. We have another 10% in price declines to go, max... I don't think we'll see much more then 30% peak to trough.

I am not sure about that. I am looking for a house in NNJ and saw a 30% off peak already. It certainly depends on gov moves but market cannot stabilize on this price level because NJ property taxes taxes are UNSUSTAINABLE!!

elflord1973 · 07-30-2009, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ghuber

I said a couple months back the real estate market in nothern NJ was stabilizing... I remember being blasted by people who said it was going to drop 40-50%. Just not going to happen, time to face the facts. We have another 10% in price declines to go, max... I don't think we'll see much more then 30% peak to trough.

As frustrating as it is, I think this is probably true. Before I predicted the Case Shiller index could go as low as 130. I don't see it going below 150 or so now.

What will happen is prices will stagnate as the real economy recovers, because the government unwinding these credits etc will keep prices down.

This is bad news for anyone hoping to buy in the next few years -- it's starting to look like you're screwed unless you wait another 3 years or so.

As for the tax credits, I really would like to see the end of them. A 15k tax credit would make it possible to buy a 400k house with no money down.

ordinar · 07-30-2009, 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by elflord1973

As frustrating as it is, I think this is probably true. Before I predicted the Case Shiller index could go as low as 130. I don't see it going below 150 or so now.

I don't know where you base your prediction but houses are currently unaffordable. A $400K mortgage + $12K property tax results to $3K per month carrying costs. Once one adds util+repairs one can easily get to 50% household income of $200K.

Paying 50% salary for housing makes no sense. That's why prices will fall further.