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Old 08-09-2009, 07:39 PM
 
Location: NJ
4,940 posts, read 12,114,993 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by USER876 View Post
The annoying thing is the realtors, all telling their clients to
buy now because the bottom has hit and prices are rising.
Which makes sense if you're a realtor. If nobody buys then you don't make any money. It's bad enough for them as it is.
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Old 08-09-2009, 07:42 PM
 
Location: Montgomery County, PA
2,771 posts, read 6,266,224 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by USER876 View Post
The annoying thing is the realtors, all telling their clients to
buy now because the bottom has hit and prices are rising.
And don't forget --

there's the first time buyer credit !!!

Buy now, before it's too late (to become an underwater home owner)

PS the bottom was in November 2008. Just ask Moorestown Resident or JG183
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Old 08-09-2009, 08:49 PM
 
250 posts, read 682,376 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ordinar View Post
I think it will take a couple of years to return to affordability. Government, as elford mentioned tries to support prices up so banks remain solvent, and the decrease is slow.

However, it IS happening and there are some other factors that will contribute to the decrease:
1. high taxes
2. shadow inventory currently under banks control
3. arm loans reset peak in 2011
4. people turning 65 peak in 2015

I expect an at least 20% off current prices (depending on the price range-less for low range higher for upper range) INDEPENDENTLY of inflation as there will be no wage increase soon (except of course goldman bonuses)
And as interest rates go up home prices will have to come down even further
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Old 08-09-2009, 10:52 PM
 
4,285 posts, read 10,743,285 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elflord1973 View Post
And don't forget --

there's the first time buyer credit !!!

Buy now, before it's too late (to become an underwater home owner)

PS the bottom was in November 2008. Just ask Moorestown Resident or JG183
Obama admin will definitly extend the tax credit for first time home owners, if not expand the program (to include non first time home owners or increase the $$$)
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Old 08-10-2009, 10:42 AM
 
Location: NJ/NY
18,432 posts, read 15,184,095 times
Reputation: 14296
I'm just curious, and maybe I missed it, but without the numbers of homes on the market, isn't this info useless? If there is a decline in sales, BUT inventory is also down due to less people selling, then prices are not going to be affected much. The sales numbers you gave are only meaningful if the available inventory is the same for the same time periods. That is, if you are a buyer or seller, but if you are a realtor lower sales are bad, period.
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Old 08-10-2009, 10:51 AM
 
234 posts, read 813,028 times
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It would be interesting to compare the absorption rate monthly over the past 1-2 yrs.......that is the number of closing's this month compared to the number of listings
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Old 08-10-2009, 12:35 PM
 
Location: Montgomery County, PA
2,771 posts, read 6,266,224 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnesthesiaMD View Post
I'm just curious, and maybe I missed it, but without the numbers of homes on the market, isn't this info useless? If there is a decline in sales, BUT inventory is also down due to less people selling, then prices are not going to be affected much. The sales numbers you gave are only meaningful if the available inventory is the same for the same time periods. That is, if you are a buyer or seller, but if you are a realtor lower sales are bad, period.
It's true that you can concoct some scenarios where low sales might not be a bearish trend.

In this case though, I don't think this applies. For example, the population of NJ is pretty stable, which means that for each person who wants to move into a SFH in NJ, there is someone moving out of one. For home owners to force a price spike by colluding by means of refusing to sell the inventory, there would need to be a strong source of demand (e.g. population increase would do it, as would strong economic growth, neither of which are applicable now)

In this case, it's an indicator that prices haven't corrected, and that we have some more shake-up to go before we return to a regime of stable price appreciation.

Re inventory specifically, at least in NJ it appears to have not changed a whole lot for the last couple of years (quite high since 2007, see njrereport.com)
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Old 08-10-2009, 03:17 PM
 
Location: NJ/NY
18,432 posts, read 15,184,095 times
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There doesn't really need to be a collaborated effort. I know of at least 2 people who would like to move but dont want to list their houses in this market. They would rather just stay put than sell for whatever the market will bear. I have another associate who chose to rent his house rather than sell in this market. So if I know of 3 personally, how many others are out there?

There must be some inventory numbers somewhere that could put my curiosity to rest. No?
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Old 08-10-2009, 03:19 PM
 
Location: NJ/NY
18,432 posts, read 15,184,095 times
Reputation: 14296
Quote:
Originally Posted by USER876 View Post
It would be interesting to compare the absorption rate monthly over the past 1-2 yrs.......that is the number of closing's this month compared to the number of listings
Right. Do you know of a good chart that shows this?
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Old 08-10-2009, 03:28 PM
 
Location: Montgomery County, PA
2,771 posts, read 6,266,224 times
Reputation: 606
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnesthesiaMD View Post
There doesn't really need to be a collaborated effort. I know of at least 2 people who would like to move but dont want to list their houses in this market. They would rather just stay put than sell for whatever the market will bear. I have another associate who chose to rent his house rather than sell in this market. So if I know of 3 personally, how many others are out there?
Sure, it's a stand off between buyers and sellers. So either the buyers come up or the sellers come down.

But the buyers can only come up if they can afford it. Once you have the majority of potential buyers priced out, the only way for prices to go is down.

btw, putting a rental SFH on the market reduces demand -- if there are nice suburban houses for rent and prices are insane, why would anyone buy ?

Quote:
There must be some inventory numbers somewhere that could put my curiosity to rest. No?
http://njrereport.com/images/jul09_salesinv.gif
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