Jon Corzine will get 4 more years. (Newark, Hackensack: credit card, bankrupt, school)

[VeradoDan]

Originally Posted by BergenCountyJohnny

As for the commenter talking about ex-NYC big government people and whatnot, he is wrong. The only noodlehead is him, he is just concocting false facts to support his tin-foil-hat conspiracy theories.

What do you think accounts for the shift from "red" the "blue" for suburban Bergen county, then? ... If such a shift happened in the first place, of course.

[BergenCountyJohnny]

Originally Posted by VeradoDan

What do you think accounts for the shift from "red" the "blue" for suburban Bergen county, then? ... If such a shift happened in the first place, of course.

I think it's an overall shift in the political spectrum, where a lot of people who were conservative 30 years ago are now considered "liberal". My family is a good example - my dad was a lifelong Republican and remained one until he died in 2005. He voted for Reagan and Kean, but then felt the Republicans were catering to extremist conservatives. By 2005, he was still a Republican but voted all Democrat because he saw them as moderate compared to what he considered the "neo-cons".

Many people I know in this area were historically Republican, families going back generations as Republicans, but none of them were ever ultra-conservative. Likewise, there has always been a large contingent of Democrats who were never ultra-liberal.

What you see usually in Bergen County is that we tend to vote for the person, not the party, if we know a lot about the person and are satisfied with the job he or she is doing; OR if we don't know enough about the people we will tend to vote for the more moderate party.

So I don't see that the people here as having changed, but having remained moderate while the rest of the nation shifted the political spectrum heavily to the right.

[mike0421]

Originally Posted by BergenCountyJohnny

I think it's an overall shift in the political spectrum, where a lot of people who were conservative 30 years ago are now considered "liberal". My family is a good example - my dad was a lifelong Republican and remained one until he died in 2005. He voted for Reagan and Kean, but then felt the Republicans were catering to extremist conservatives. By 2005, he was still a Republican but voted all Democrat because he saw them as moderate compared to what he considered the "neo-cons".

Many people I know in this area were historically Republican, families going back generations as Republicans, but none of them were ever ultra-conservative. Likewise, there has always been a large contingent of Democrats who were never ultra-liberal.

What you see usually in Bergen County is that we tend to vote for the person, not the party, if we know a lot about the person and are satisfied with the job he or she is doing; OR if we don't know enough about the people we will tend to vote for the more moderate party.

So I don't see that the people here as having changed, but having remained moderate while the rest of the nation shifted the political spectrum heavily to the right.

I think demographics undoubtably plays a role in the Bergen County shift. You had a fraction of Hispanic population in 1980 in lower Bergen County of what you have today. Hispanics vote overwhelmingly Democrat. Many aren't very comfortable discussing ethnicity with political affiliation, but I think it also goes a long way towards defining the national Democrat-leaning vote in increasing numbers as well, not just Bergen County NJ. To wit, in 2000, there are estimated to be 90,000 people of Hispanic origin in Bergen County, in 1980, that figure was only 28,000. That's a three fold, almost four fold increase in those 20 years. The entire county grew by 41,000 during that same period of time. This translates into non Hispanic white flight, with a replacement of Hispanic population. Secondarily, Asians have also supplanted white Non Hispanics by similar totals. Asians also tend to vote Democrat, which has admitedly puzzled me to a degree, in slightly smaller percentages. Asians and Hispanic population in 2000 comprises roughly 21% of the county total population: in 1980, that same combination of demographics comprised only 6% of the Bergen County population. If you blend this matrix together, you can see how the Democrat plurality continues to increase in this county. I am sure by next year, when the next census is taken, these figures will have increased even more drastically.

[VeradoDan]

Originally Posted by mike0421

I think demographics undoubtably plays a role in the Bergen County shift. You had a fraction of Hispanic population in 1980 in lower Bergen County of what you have today. Hispanics vote overwhelmingly Democrat. Many aren't very comfortable discussing ethnicity with political affiliation, but I think it also goes a long way towards defining the national Democrat-leaning vote in increasing numbers as well, not just Bergen County NJ. To wit, in 2000, there are estimated to be 90,000 people of Hispanic origin in Bergen County, in 1980, that figure was only 28,000. That's a three fold, almost four fold increase in those 20 years. The entire county grew by 41,000 during that same period of time. This translates into non Hispanic white flight, with a replacement of Hispanic population. Secondarily, Asians have also supplanted white Non Hispanics by similar totals. Asians also tend to vote Democrat, which has admitedly puzzled me to a degree, in slightly smaller percentages. Asians and Hispanic population in 2000 comprises roughly 21% of the county total population: in 1980, that same combination of demographics comprised only 6% of the Bergen County population. If you blend this matrix together, you can see how the Democrat plurality continues to increase in this county. I am sure by next year, when the next census is taken, these figures will have increased even more drastically.

Now that is an interesting post. Seems like you nailed it, since the media-driven notion that every Republican is an "ultra-conservative" or "neo-con" is something of a new creation that came during the Bush administration. If anything, it would seem to me the Republicans pretty much capitulates to Democrats more often than not - and New Jersey's candidates for state office have always been very liberal Republicans at that. In the last several elections for Governor and Senate, the GOP candidate has always been far more moderate than the left-wing idealouges like Corzine, Menendez, Torricelli, Lautenberg, etc.

It's also interesting you cite "white flight" with the stats. Now, I understand that happening in urban areas due to safety and education considerations, but it's interesting that the same thing is happening in a suburban area. Where are the white people moving? Down here to Ocean County? Out of state? Do you think it's older people retiring and moving out or a combination of seniors and younger people looking for affordable areas in which to live?

[BergenCountyJohnny]

Originally Posted by mike0421

I think demographics undoubtably plays a role in the Bergen County shift. You had a fraction of Hispanic population in 1980 in lower Bergen County of what you have today. Hispanics vote overwhelmingly Democrat. Many aren't very comfortable discussing ethnicity with political affiliation, but I think it also goes a long way towards defining the national Democrat-leaning vote in increasing numbers as well, not just Bergen County NJ. To wit, in 2000, there are estimated to be 90,000 people of Hispanic origin in Bergen County, in 1980, that figure was only 28,000. That's a three fold, almost four fold increase in those 20 years. The entire county grew by 41,000 during that same period of time. This translates into non Hispanic white flight, with a replacement of Hispanic population. Secondarily, Asians have also supplanted white Non Hispanics by similar totals. Asians also tend to vote Democrat, which has admitedly puzzled me to a degree, in slightly smaller percentages. Asians and Hispanic population in 2000 comprises roughly 21% of the county total population: in 1980, that same combination of demographics comprised only 6% of the Bergen County population. If you blend this matrix together, you can see how the Democrat plurality continues to increase in this county. I am sure by next year, when the next census is taken, these figures will have increased even more drastically.

I think all your figures are wrong. Do you have any sources?

[BergenCountyJohnny]

Originally Posted by VeradoDan

Now that is an interesting post. Seems like you nailed it, since the media-driven notion that every Republican is an "ultra-conservative" or "neo-con" is something of a new creation that came during the Bush administration. If anything, it would seem to me the Republicans pretty much capitulates to Democrats more often than not - and New Jersey's candidates for state office have always been very liberal Republicans at that. In the last several elections for Governor and Senate, the GOP candidate has always been far more moderate than the left-wing idealouges like Corzine, Menendez, Torricelli, Lautenberg, etc.

No, he didn't nail anything.

NJ Republicans were always moderate, not liberal, like most NJ Republicans. Reagan/Bush(Sr.) ushered in neo-conservatism, and reactionary ultra-right wingers fostered their extremism during Clinton and grew it during W Bush, who was cut from the same cloth. Whitman was also in that vein, although admittedly she wasn't quite as extreme as they were.

But to say Corzine, Menendez, Torricelli, and Lautenberg are "left-wing" just proves to me that you are on the far, far extreme right-wing.

Originally Posted by VeradoDan

It's also interesting you cite "white flight" with the stats. Now, I understand that happening in urban areas due to safety and education considerations, but it's interesting that the same thing is happening in a suburban area. Where are the white people moving? Down here to Ocean County? Out of state? Do you think it's older people retiring and moving out or a combination of seniors and younger people looking for affordable areas in which to live?

Funny, the only "white flight" going on in my part of Bergen County are the white people who just can't afford it anymore. Of course, mike0421 doesn't even live here in Bergen County, but I guess since it's more convenient for you to believe someone who lives across the nation than someone who lives here, you're just going to do that.

[luckyshoes]

Originally Posted by BergenCountyJohnny

Funny, the only "white flight" going on in my part of Bergen County are the white people who just can't afford it anymore.

There's some "white flight" (can't think of a better word) going on in parts of Bergen County though.

[mike0421]

Originally Posted by BergenCountyJohnny

I think all your figures are wrong. Do you have any sources?

I do. According to US Census Figures:

http://www.wnjpin.net/OneStopCareerC...01/ctp8090.htm

The above link shows 1980 to 1990 comparisons.

Bergen County, New Jersey - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This link gives you the year 2000. Piece the two together, and you roughly approximate what I quoted.

[mike0421]

Originally Posted by BergenCountyJohnny

No, he didn't nail anything.

NJ Republicans were always moderate, not liberal, like most NJ Republicans. Reagan/Bush(Sr.) ushered in neo-conservatism, and reactionary ultra-right wingers fostered their extremism during Clinton and grew it during W Bush, who was cut from the same cloth. Whitman was also in that vein, although admittedly she wasn't quite as extreme as they were.

But to say Corzine, Menendez, Torricelli, and Lautenberg are "left-wing" just proves to me that you are on the far, far extreme right-wing.



Funny, the only "white flight" going on in my part of Bergen County are the white people who just can't afford it anymore. Of course, mike0421 doesn't even live here in Bergen County, but I guess since it's more convenient for you to believe someone who lives across the nation than someone who lives here, you're just going to do that.

BCJ,

I worked on an almost daily basis in Bergen County from 1988 to 2000. I saw the population transform before my eyes during that period of time. Most customers I dealt with were Asian Americans who were taking over independent pharmacies and convenience stores from white Americans. Pharmacists during this period of time were coming from India, and to a lesser degree, South Korea. Same with convenience stores. I'd say the majority of this transformation I witnessed was south of Rt 4. Fairview, Palisades Park, Carlstadt, Ridgewood Park, Rutherford. These towns were formerly predominated by what would be construed as blue collar, white "reagan Democrats". This was during the late 80s. By the time I left my industry, in 2000, the ethnic flavor of these towns had changed. I am not saying this in a derogatory way at all. Our nation is one that is constantly in a state of ethnic flux. But I am telling you what I witnessed over that 12-13 year period of time.

[Ninjahedge]

Originally Posted by mike0421

I think demographics undoubtably plays a role in the Bergen County shift. You had a fraction of Hispanic population in 1980 in lower Bergen County of what you have today. Hispanics vote overwhelmingly Democrat.

Actually, Hispanics are profoundly religious and vote Conservative. Anyone running on a moral platform has a better chance with Hispanics than you think. Not all minorities vote Democrat...

Many aren't very comfortable discussing ethnicity with political affiliation, but I think it also goes a long way towards defining the national Democrat-leaning vote in increasing numbers as well, not just Bergen County NJ. To wit, in 2000, there are estimated to be 90,000 people of Hispanic origin in Bergen County, in 1980, that figure was only 28,000. That's a three fold, almost four fold increase in those 20 years. The entire county grew by 41,000 during that same period of time.

So, what is the percentage shift? If there are 2 people out of 500 in a room that are blue, it does not matter if that number quadruples, most will still think the Smurfs were stupid.

This translates into non Hispanic white flight, with a replacement of Hispanic population. Secondarily, Asians have also supplanted white Non Hispanics by similar totals. Asians also tend to vote Democrat, which has admitedly puzzled me to a degree, in slightly smaller percentages. Asians and Hispanic population in 2000 comprises roughly 21% of the county total population: in 1980, that same combination of demographics comprised only 6% of the Bergen County population.

This is VERY difficult to prove without some numbers Mike. MANY asians I know are profoundly conservative and some very religious as well (Korean). Pinning Democratic control purely on immigration numbers is like pinning the cause of rain on Umbrellas. Just because you see a lot of them when it is raining does not mean they caused it to rain!

If you blend this matrix together, you can see how the Democrat plurality continues to increase in this county. I am sure by next year, when the next census is taken, these figures will have increased even more drastically.

Matrices are box numbers, a certain number of rows wide by a certain number high. Although the use of the word sounds kool ever since the movie, it does not really fit here (especially with words like "blend").

Sorry, just my own mathematical background screaming at me there.

Just don't pin the shift with one demographic that is easily traced. I think it is more on what BCJ is saying. People have been pretty much on the same lines as before. TRUE conservatives not favoring that much change, and the Neo-Con shift that has occured has propted OTHER changes that they feel uncomfortable with. The Dems have shifted more towards Blue Dog, feeling awkward about even calling themselves "liberal" (when that means free thinking and willing to accept other opinions, NOT, as it is being blacklisted now, as someone wanting to change everythnig and ruin the life of the "average" American).

Even the Republican party has shown a bit of reticense and tried to break a bit from the hard liners that have gone somewhere they don't even know. The only thing that has kept them this long is the fact that the solidarity of the Republican party was their greatest asset. They may have not been the best representatives of the people, but they were the best politicians. Selling cameras to blind men and making people feel like they were going to hell if they disagreed with them.

Problem is, when something works for too long, it is hard to change track when either you start going off course, or the people just don't accept it as willingly anymore....