Poll: Corzine by 9 (Newark, Clinton: 2009, how much, bus)

[swb212]

From Politico:

A Suffolk Universsity poll released today shows New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine with a 9-point advantage over Republican Chris Christie, his biggest lead of the campaign and a result that would have been unthinkable just a few months ago.

The survey showed Corzine ahead of Christie 42 percent to 33 percent, with 7 percent for Independent Chris Daggett. Notably, the poll listed all 12 candidates on the actually on the ballot.

The survey, which represents a departure from other polls which show a much closer race, marks the first time Suffolk has polled this race.

[elflord1973]

Originally Posted by swb212

From Politico:

A Suffolk Universsity poll released today shows New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine with a 9-point advantage over Republican Chris Christie, his biggest lead of the campaign and a result that would have been unthinkable just a few months ago.

The survey showed Corzine ahead of Christie 42 percent to 33 percent, with 7 percent for Independent Chris Daggett. Notably, the poll listed all 12 candidates on the actually on the ballot.

The survey, which represents a departure from other polls which show a much closer race, marks the first time Suffolk has polled this race.

Back in the day (of the Republican Primary), Christie had a plan -- a list of 88 things he would do to get NJ back on track.

Shortly after the primary, the plan evaporated and his website looked slicker. Instead of posting his 88 point plan, now he just says "trust me". He's going to fix NJ's budget problems by having a "different philosophy". But it takes more than a "philosophy" to fix this. It takes someone who is willing to make tough choices, and he's been looking very much like the guy who doesn't stand for very much (besides becoming governor). It's not good enough for him to just be "not Corzine" -- that's a distinction (and votes) that he'll need to share with Daggett.

You couldn't have picked a much better time for a bona fide fiscal conservative. Christie could be the next governor if only he had the courage to run as one.

[Mightyqueen801]

a list of 88 things he would do to get NJ back on track

UH, OH, the white supremacist number! (Let's start a rumor.)

[MPBsr]

I call BS.

[VeradoDan]

Originally Posted by MPBsr

I call BS.

The poll result was real, but it doesn't mean it was accurate. There are a lot of crazy poll results out there that swing one way or another. There were some polls that had McCain beating Obama by a decent margin last year, and we saw how that turned out. The best thing to do is keep track of the rolling average and the point spread, which generally has the race within the margin of error in most polls with Christie maintaining a 1-3 point lead.

It's going to be a tough race. I think it will come down to how many dead people in Hudson County cast their votes for Corzine and how many of Corzine's "million dollar ministers" can bus their brainwashed congregations to the polls.

[openheads]

Originally Posted by elflord1973

It takes someone who is willing to make tough choices, and he's been looking very much like the guy who doesn't stand for very much (besides becoming governor). It's not good enough for him to just be "not Corzine"

You couldn't have picked a much better time for a bona fide fiscal conservative. Christie could be the next governor if only he had the courage to run as one.

Ding!

[luckyshoes]

Politics is all about charisma and looks. Both candidates are lacking in both.

Christie turned out to be not as charismatic as he might have been. People feel like Corzine doesn't understand them. Well, I'm not sure they feel any better about Christie at this point.

On looks, Christie's weight is a negative.

[Kracer]

"Politics is all about charisma and looks."

Perfectly describes the general electorates' capability to conduct a 'job interview' of prospective candidates and why we are where we are.

Poll results are the end point of the how the questions were pharased and ordered. Without knowing that information and having no track record available to judge past accuracy, this poll falls into the realm of a directed fantasy.

[swb212]

According to RealClearPolitics poll of polls, which doesn't include the Suffolk result above, Corzine is up 0.1 percent.

RCP Average Corzine +0.1
SurveyUSA Christie +2
Rutgers-Eagleton Corzine +3
Rasmussen Reports Christie +2
Monmouth/Gannett Tie
New York Times Corzine +3
Quinnipiac Christie +1

[Marcian]

Election 2009: New Jersey Governor
New Jersey Governor: Christie 46%, Corzine 43%
Tuesday, October 27, 2009 Email to a Friend ShareThisAdvertisement
With just a week to go in New Jersey’s closely contested race for governor, Republican Chris Christie holds a three-point advantage over incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Jersey show Christie with 46% of the vote and Corzine with 43%. While the margin is little changed from a week ago and the week before, the biggest news may be that support for independent candidate Chris Daggett has dropped four points to seven percent (7%). The number of undecided voters is down to four percent (4%).

The decline in support for Daggett comes in a week when several state newspapers endorsed Christie or Corzine, but none followed The (Newark) Star-Ledger’s lead and came out in favor of the independent candidate. Additionally, Christie began a new ad campaign linking Corzine and Daggett.

Christie leads by eight points among those who are certain they will show up and vote. A week ago, he was up by five among that group. Christie’s supporters are also less likely to say they might consider voting for someone else.

Corzine does better among voters who might not make it to the polls. That's one reason President Obama, former President Bill Clinton and other Democratic Party luminaries are spending time in the Garden State in hopes of encouraging turnout.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

At this point, there is no possible way to project what will happen on Election Day. The Democrats clearly have an edge in New Jersey when it comes to getting out the vote, which is one reason no Republican has won a statewide race in New Jersey since 1997. It's also impossible to know how much support Daggett will retain.

Measuring the ultimate impact of third-party candidates is always challenging. Many voters initially say they support an independent option and then change their minds as Election Day nears. That’s because they eventually decide to vote for the lesser of two evils between the major party candidates.

Currently, 14% of voters cite Daggett as their first preference. That’s down a couple of points from a week ago. However, only about half that base appears likely to stay with him at this time.

Corzine is now viewed favorably by 41% and unfavorably by 57%. Those numbers are unchanged from a week ago.

Christie’s totals are 49% favorable and 49% unfavorable, generally the same as last week.

Feelings remain stronger about the governor: 40% have a Very Unfavorable view of him while 27% say the same about Christie.

Daggett is now viewed favorably by 42% and unfavorably by 40%. That unfavorable number is up eight points over the past week and 13 points over the past two weeks. Fifteen percent (15%) have a Very Unfavorable opinion of the independent candidate.

Early in the year, Christie held a solid lead over Corzine. The governor’s campaign worked to make Christie an unacceptable alternative and succeeded in driving the negative ratings up for the GOP hopeful. Daggett became a possible candidate for those who didn’t like the governor but also didn’t want to vote for a Republican, so Christie began linking Corzine and Daggett. That has succeeded in driving up Daggett’s negative ratings. About the only thing certain in New Jersey at the moment is that the next governor will be someone that is disliked by at least half the state.