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View Poll Results: Who is the right choice for New Mexico in 2010!
Susana Martinez - Republican 64 62.14%
Diane D. Denish - Democrat 39 37.86%
Voters: 103. You may not vote on this poll

 
 
Old 06-24-2010, 10:54 AM
 
Location: ABQ (Paradise Hills), NM
750 posts, read 1,897,883 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JBM View Post
... but i talked several family members in the ABQ area into voting for her.
That doesn't speak very well of your family members, and is a sad commentary on the general voting public.

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Originally Posted by JBM View Post
As for illegals... I think if they're here, we might as well use them to our advantage.
Wow. This comment just about floored me. Not something I would have expected to hear from a young, idealistic, liberally-minded individual like JBM. Yikes.

Chap
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Old 06-24-2010, 10:57 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM - Summerlin, NV
3,457 posts, read 3,276,764 times
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Thank you Chap for bringing that up....

Those comments............. outrageous.
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Old 06-24-2010, 11:07 AM
 
Location: 38 38' 45" N, -90 20' 08" W
7,646 posts, read 10,959,995 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aries63 View Post
This poll was conducted by Magellan Strategies, a partisan research group. From the Magellan website:

"The Magellan team is a deep and experienced group of individuals with career backgrounds working for the Republican National Committee, political campaigns, state parties, survey research firms, government affairs firms, and conservative grassroots organizations. Our principals have managed some of the most challenging data and technology projects for the Republican Party and conservative movement in the past 18 years."
I thought it was interesting that the people who identified themselves as "Hispanic" in the poll still went with Denish over Martinez, thereby squashing the notion, at least in this poll, that Hispanics would vote more for someone with a surname that is Hispanic. Hispanics, much like the Black demographic, maybe a little less so, vote as a block for Democrats, overwhelmingly so. I think that is why Denish will ultimately prevail. The state has a plurality of Hispanic residents, and they vote for Democrats. They identify with issues that Democrats espouse, and in the case of Martinez's candidacy, more than half of those Hispanics polled didn't bite. As I noted, the white non-Hispanic was over-polled, relative to the entire population. If you had the same percentage of Hispanics polled as represented in the NM general population, Denish probably comes out ahead in this poll by about 5-6 points. For Martinez to win, the non-Hispanic white vote is going to have to be about 70-30 in her favor.
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Old 06-24-2010, 01:20 PM
 
Location: Home, Home on the Front Range
13,818 posts, read 6,692,794 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike0421 View Post
I thought it was interesting that the people who identified themselves as "Hispanic" in the poll still went with Denish over Martinez, thereby squashing the notion, at least in this poll, that Hispanics would vote more for someone with a surname that is Hispanic. Hispanics, much like the Black demographic, maybe a little less so, vote as a block for Democrats, overwhelmingly so. I think that is why Denish will ultimately prevail. The state has a plurality of Hispanic residents, and they vote for Democrats. They identify with issues that Democrats espouse, and in the case of Martinez's candidacy, more than half of those Hispanics polled didn't bite. As I noted, the white non-Hispanic was over-polled, relative to the entire population. If you had the same percentage of Hispanics polled as represented in the NM general population, Denish probably comes out ahead in this poll by about 5-6 points. For Martinez to win, the non-Hispanic white vote is going to have to be about 70-30 in her favor.
It may look like that, but, remember they screened for likely voters and asked people to self-report their ethnicity. Many Hispanics self-identify as 'white.'
Also, as per the cross-tabs, the data are weighted, though I haven't yet found any reference to how, although do I have a couple of ideas.

More interesting to me is that 72% of the respondents are 45+. I would have expected to see more of a 50/50 split, although, they may have weighted this based on overall voting trends.

It does look like the break-down of D's vs. R's matches the party registration percentages - there are 18% more D's than R's in NM and that is exactly the difference shown on the slide (53% vs. 35%) so I'm guessing that this was one of the weighting variables.

I also found it very interesting that the congressional ballot is leaning very clearly 'D,' particularly among the 45+ age groups (49% vs. 35%) - if people vote the ticket, and we know that they often do, this will give LG Denish the advantage in November among those most likely to vote.

That being said, there are a lot of undecided voters, so, it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
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Old 06-24-2010, 01:27 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM - Summerlin, NV
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There are alot of Undecided voters!! Crazy.... I thought people would have already made up their minds, It may be early... but I guess we will have to wait it out.

I know on my case, tiger I will be voting for Ben R. Lujan for congress and Susana for Governor. So not everyone will go straight dem on that... I know several others that are doing the same as well.
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Old 06-24-2010, 01:35 PM
 
Location: Home, Home on the Front Range
13,818 posts, read 6,692,794 times
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Originally Posted by bradly View Post
There are alot of Undecided voters!! Crazy.... I thought people would have already made up their minds, It may be early... but I guess we will have to wait it out.

I know on my case, tiger I will be voting for Ben R. Lujan for congress and Susana for Governor. So not everyone will go straight dem on that... I know several others that are doing the same as well.
And I agree that people should vote for whomever they feel is best for the job, not solely by party, however, party loyalty is still strong as is evident by all the partisanship we witness every day.

As for the undecided voters, it is still early days. I think once school starts again and the signs go up in earnest, people will start paying a little more attention. The primary turnout was very low (between 20-30%) so, I guess it really isn't on a lot of people's radar just yet. Either that, or they just aren't interested. Or, they are suffering campaign burnout - one of the real downsides to such long election seasons. I know I sometimes feel like it never ends
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Old 06-24-2010, 01:40 PM
 
Location: Abu Al-Qurq
2,802 posts, read 4,137,623 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
you mean no one ever takes polls (telephone polls) using cell phone numbers. Boy will my granddaughter be glad to hear that and do you really think most young people have no landlines. Five years from now, you will be right, many still have them.

Who will win, who knows, but your reasoning is probably a little off.

Nita
I said many, you said I said most.

Comprehension score: F.
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Old 06-24-2010, 01:47 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM - Summerlin, NV
3,457 posts, read 3,276,764 times
Reputation: 682
Quote:
Originally Posted by TigerLily24 View Post
And I agree that people should vote for whomever they feel is best for the job, not solely by party, however, party loyalty is still strong as is evident by all the partisanship we witness every day.

As for the undecided voters, it is still early days. I think once school starts again and the signs go up in earnest, people will start paying a little more attention. The primary turnout was very low (between 20-30%) so, I guess it really isn't on a lot of people's radar just yet. Either that, or they just aren't interested. Or, they are suffering campaign burnout - one of the real downsides to such long election seasons. I know I sometimes feel like it never ends
Yes, very true.

Both Candidates are recieving signs early. As I took a drive threw a small Espanola neighborhood the other day every other house had a sign... Denish, Martinez, and so on........ pretty crazy.

it is going to be one of the most exciting races this state has ever seen.
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Old 06-24-2010, 01:59 PM
 
Location: Home, Home on the Front Range
13,818 posts, read 6,692,794 times
Reputation: 5795
Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
you mean no one ever takes polls (telephone polls) using cell phone numbers. Boy will my granddaughter be glad to hear that and do you really think most young people have no landlines. Five years from now, you will be right, many still have them.

Who will win, who knows, but your reasoning is probably a little off.

Nita
People do take surveys via their cell phones, however, the numbers are still low compared to other methods.

Some reasons here:

Collecting Survey Data - Pew Research Center for the People & the Press

And, yes, many younger people have given up landlines.

"Nearly 50 percent of 25-year-olds did not live in a household with a landline. The vast majority of exclusive cell phone users were under the age of 40.
...
The study was meant to point out that phone surveys, including health surveys, conducted on landline accounts are no longer representative of the public as a whole because a large portion of the public isn't available by landline."

Americans Give Up Landlines for Cell Phones

Now, back to our regularly scheduled debate...
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Old 06-24-2010, 02:07 PM
 
Location: Home, Home on the Front Range
13,818 posts, read 6,692,794 times
Reputation: 5795
Quote:
Originally Posted by bradly View Post
Yes, very true.

Both Candidates are recieving signs early. As I took a drive threw a small Espanola neighborhood the other day every other house had a sign... Denish, Martinez, and so on........ pretty crazy.

it is going to be one of the most exciting races this state has ever seen.
That's pretty cool actually. I love to see that kind of enthusiasm
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