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Old 05-23-2011, 09:57 AM
 
Location: Ridgewood, NY
2,750 posts, read 3,256,795 times
Reputation: 1274
@ bkvillian718 In staten island the most notable has been murder as well as sheepshead bay and in South Jamaica overall crime...

At least in sheepshead bay though the 6 murders that have taken place as sad as it is were more random events moreso than a troubling pattern... I don't think sheepshead bay is on the rise in terms of crime but at first glance it was a little shocking...

Now getting back to the latest crime statistics...
http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloa...ics/cscity.pdf
http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloa...s/cs040pct.pdf
http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloa...s/cs073pct.pdf
http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloa...s/cs113pct.pdf

The first is the overall numbers for the city and the other three are what seem to be the highest crime plagued areas... Also, I won't post the 83rd precinct in Bushwick's numbers but I think the same thing is happening there as has been the case with the Bed-stuy precinct's because there was a double homicide in the week that was just reported and Bushwick still has only 1 murder listed... I'd have to wait for next week to see if maybe they were simply late on reporting but some of the numbers so far seem a little sketchy to me in that neighborhood since everyone has been complaining about the surge in crime in Bushwick lately...

Getting back to the other precincts... Mott Haven has been pretty bad in terms of murders this year and we are not even in the dreaded summer months yet which should be a cause for concern since as Sobroguy has posted cops are on every street, avenue, lane, boulevard you walk... Brownsville as well is leading all precincts in murders with 10 which is insane to me considering how small the area really is and the fact that we are no longer in the crack era... Reason why I say this is beacuse last year Brownsville reached the same number of murders it did in 1995 and right now it has gone from 6 last year to 10 this year in a one sq. mile radius. Also south jamaica has 4 murders listed but if you look at the violent crime rate numbers have increased by a large margin in that area... Felony assault has increased by nearly 80% from last year... It has gone from 99 last year to 176 reported incidents...

Final point, it has been 4 or 5 consecutive weeks already that the numbers have increased from last year and we have officially surpassed last year's numbers in murders and felony assaults and it seems as if we are closing in with the official crime rate as well... We are now only 1.7% below last year's mark and right now at least, it does seem as if we will surpass last year's numbers... I don't know what's been going on these last few weeks but things do not seem to be getting any better...

Again, I don't want to sound paranoid or anything but the numbers do lead to a disturbing pattern that I think needs to be addressed... To be fair and not only focus on the negative... Manhattan North which has typically been one of the higher crime areas throughout the years has been one of the sections of the city that is bucking the trend... I'm assuming that at least over there the gentrification effect has been a positive in those sections of Harlem and Wash Heights. Also 113th precinct aside, Queens south has had a sharp decrease in murders from last year...

Last edited by anon1; 05-23-2011 at 10:41 AM..

 
Old 05-23-2011, 11:37 AM
 
Location: Port Richmond, Staten Island, New York City, New York, 10302
317 posts, read 514,526 times
Reputation: 157
I didn't look at the numbers for the 120th precinct so far this year (the computer I'm on is pretty lame and it freezes whenever I try to access the link. Smh) but the area that the 120 serves has had tons of issues for decades and decades now.

With that said, Staten Island started off really slowly with murders last year. I think there was only like 3 going into June or July. This could account for the large jump, perhaps?
 
Old 05-23-2011, 02:16 PM
 
Location: Ridgewood, NY
2,750 posts, read 3,256,795 times
Reputation: 1274
Yea 120th does drive a bulk of the crime in the Staten Island precincts but all three have registered increases in the crime the most notable increase being the 122nd precinct with a 10% increase in overall crime... And all 3 precincts have registered at least 1 murder with 120th registering the most with 5...

Honestly, I don't know much about Staten Island but it did strike me as one of a group of precincts that has been seeing an increase in crime over the past couple of years when even in comparison to the 90s wasn't all that much different to today's times which could mean that crime is actually growing in those areas as the years go by...
 
Old 05-23-2011, 04:07 PM
 
8,752 posts, read 9,228,826 times
Reputation: 4168
Just a heads up..Violent Crime in 2010 vs 2009 declined 5.5%....this isn't necessarily directly related to NYC, but it does indicate that we are becoming a less violent society...despite all the scary stories on these forums:

FBI: Violent crime drops 5.5 percent - US news - Crime & courts - msnbc.com
 
Old 05-23-2011, 05:46 PM
 
Location: Clinton Hill, Brooklyn
383 posts, read 716,089 times
Reputation: 122
honestly sobroguy i feel you on the whole peaceful non violent feel your going for, but honestly if you want you could really start your own forum about "Safer World", or " Wonderful world", because from what i can tell this thread isn't for you. Now before you try to come back at me, notice i'm actually trying to help you.
 
Old 05-23-2011, 05:50 PM
 
Location: Clinton Hill, Brooklyn
383 posts, read 716,089 times
Reputation: 122
Quote:
Originally Posted by anon1 View Post
@ bkvillian718 In staten island the most notable has been murder as well as sheepshead bay and in South Jamaica overall crime...

At least in sheepshead bay though the 6 murders that have taken place as sad as it is were more random events moreso than a troubling pattern... I don't think sheepshead bay is on the rise in terms of crime but at first glance it was a little shocking...

Now getting back to the latest crime statistics...
http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloa...ics/cscity.pdf
http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloa...s/cs040pct.pdf
http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloa...s/cs073pct.pdf
http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloa...s/cs113pct.pdf

The first is the overall numbers for the city and the other three are what seem to be the highest crime plagued areas... Also, I won't post the 83rd precinct in Bushwick's numbers but I think the same thing is happening there as has been the case with the Bed-stuy precinct's because there was a double homicide in the week that was just reported and Bushwick still has only 1 murder listed... I'd have to wait for next week to see if maybe they were simply late on reporting but some of the numbers so far seem a little sketchy to me in that neighborhood since everyone has been complaining about the surge in crime in Bushwick lately...

Getting back to the other precincts... Mott Haven has been pretty bad in terms of murders this year and we are not even in the dreaded summer months yet which should be a cause for concern since as Sobroguy has posted cops are on every street, avenue, lane, boulevard you walk... Brownsville as well is leading all precincts in murders with 10 which is insane to me considering how small the area really is and the fact that we are no longer in the crack era... Reason why I say this is beacuse last year Brownsville reached the same number of murders it did in 1995 and right now it has gone from 6 last year to 10 this year in a one sq. mile radius. Also south jamaica has 4 murders listed but if you look at the violent crime rate numbers have increased by a large margin in that area... Felony assault has increased by nearly 80% from last year... It has gone from 99 last year to 176 reported incidents...

Final point, it has been 4 or 5 consecutive weeks already that the numbers have increased from last year and we have officially surpassed last year's numbers in murders and felony assaults and it seems as if we are closing in with the official crime rate as well... We are now only 1.7% below last year's mark and right now at least, it does seem as if we will surpass last year's numbers... I don't know what's been going on these last few weeks but things do not seem to be getting any better...

Again, I don't want to sound paranoid or anything but the numbers do lead to a disturbing pattern that I think needs to be addressed... To be fair and not only focus on the negative... Manhattan North which has typically been one of the higher crime areas throughout the years has been one of the sections of the city that is bucking the trend... I'm assuming that at least over there the gentrification effect has been a positive in those sections of Harlem and Wash Heights. Also 113th precinct aside, Queens south has had a sharp decrease in murders from last year...
Yea, it does seem SI is having an increase as much as the city is on crime. Also to comment on Uptown, East Harlem at the start of the year was leading in murders, from what i remember the first slaying of the year happen in Harlem. Its nice to see its been quiet for a bit, but i don't believe its going to last much longer.
 
Old 05-23-2011, 06:18 PM
 
Location: Ridgewood, NY
2,750 posts, read 3,256,795 times
Reputation: 1274
@ sobroguy I'm gonna have to agree with bkvillian on this one... Now that the numbers are actually pointing towards something we have been saying wouldn't happen for two years which is a steady increase in the violent crime rate in NYC... you look to include a completely irrelevant link to this thread...

Yes, maybe the other states dropped in violent crime between the years of 2009 and 2010 but did NYC drop in violent crime? No, it shot up. And this year seems to be continuing the trend so how does that link provide any relevant info to this thread...

What that link does try to do though, is deflect the more pressing matter which is reality for New yorkers in the city which is that in comparison with the more recent years, NYC seems to be becoming slightly more violent than previous years... Again, only going by what the facts and relevant links tell me... we can talk about how Puerto Rico is more violent than ever due to the current economic situation therefore because NYC is in a similar spot we are going to revert back to crack era numbers... but does that make any sense???
 
Old 05-24-2011, 08:21 AM
 
8,752 posts, read 9,228,826 times
Reputation: 4168
The numbers aren't pointing to anything...you cannot make a case for your argument based on a few weeks of data. You believe the trend is reversing from 15 years based on a few weeks..really? The trend did not shoot up..it increased from the unusually low number of 2009...and everyone can agree that year was the anomoly....2010 however was below 2008...etc.

If you want to talk about crime from the inner city drug dealers....then yeah...no matter what happens in the "real world" (aka 95% of people not involved in that lifestyle), crime is horrible and always will be. But is that reality for "regular" people? NO. We can talk about the 5% of the people who are causing crime, and that story will never change, or you can talk about what is life like for the 95% of everyone...and that is far more important. And life for that 95% is safer...

This is the article in the NYTimes: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/24/us...e.html?_r=1&hp

And an excerpt: "In cities with populations under 10,000, the number plunged by more than 25 percent last year.
The news was not as positive in New York City, however. After leading a long decline in crime rates, the city saw increases in all four types of violent lawbreaking — murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assault — including a nearly 14 percent rise in murders. But data from the past few months suggest the city’s upward trend may have slowed or stopped."

Point is..a few weeks worth of data does not a trend make...
 
Old 05-24-2011, 08:56 AM
 
Location: Ridgewood, NY
2,750 posts, read 3,256,795 times
Reputation: 1274
So the trend early on which suggested that the increase in violent crime had slowed or stopped was credible but the increase over the last month to month and a half which show not slight but a dramatic rise in the murder rate and felony assault is not credible... sure, why not.

The problem with your logic is that you continue just like Bloomberg to ignore the reality for (not 5% of the population) a good number of neighborhoods in this city...

How many neighborhoods in this city deal with a fair share amount of crime?
Let's break it down by each borough and I'll be reasonable...

Let's see that out of 30-35 neighborhoods in Queens about 10 deal with there fair share of crime... you can look up the statistics for evidence of this yourself but I think I'm being more than reasonable with the numbers...

Let's say in Brooklyn you have about 15 out of the 35 that deal with there fair share of crime. Let's say in the Bronx that 15 out of about 25 deal with there fair share of crime. Manhattan has cleaned up a bit so let's say a little less than 10. And in Staten Island we'll give it the Port Richmond area though Staten Island as a whole seems to be showing an upward trend over the past couple of years...

Really 5% of NYers deal with these problems... We're not just talking about murders... we'll talking about rapes, felony assaults, burglaries and robberies which granted are still down this year but have both increased over the past month or so along with the other statistics... I'm just going by what I see now and this city seems to be continuing last year's trend... Stop comparing these times to 15 years ago because aside from a random statistic in murder for one precinct nobody is comparing the amount of crime back then to today's times... What we are doing is comparing it to recent year's and what that article fails to mention is that 2006 aside, NYC had its highest murder rate since 2004. It didn't just beat out last year and it wasn't an insignificant jump... the murder rate increased from previous years and it seems to be continuing the trend as of right now with the increase in crime over the past month... If this were the end of september and we'd had this jump in crime then i'd agree with you, it'd be nothing to worry about... but how can you say giving the history that summer has on crime that these numbers will end up going down when more people will be out in the streets...

The fact that this is happening earlier than usual is a disturbing trend that unfortunately does not seem to be going away... How can you look at your precincts murder statistics and tell me that you feel perfectly fine in your neighborhood? I honestly wonder if Bloomberg wasn't mayor if you'd be singing the same tune...
 
Old 05-24-2011, 09:17 AM
 
8,752 posts, read 9,228,826 times
Reputation: 4168
No it only says that a few weeks of data don't say anything...and that statement reiterates that. The crime rate doesn't seem to be doing anything..because it is too soon to say anything...but you keep missing that point. If you believe crime rates are reversing and we are going back up...that's great...but your argument has zero support b/c you are using just a little data...I can use years of data to show that this is just a blip and it will resume to stable crime levels. Who would you believe is more likely to be correct?

As for neighborhoods with crime..5% of people are the cause of crime..and they USED to hold the other 95% of the hardworking people in these "bad" neighborhoods hostage...but today, and in the past few years, these communities have become safer for that 95%, and those residents will agree with that statement. My point stands.

I feel as good as I did before because the stats are simply telling me this: Drug dealers/people involved with the drug trade are dying..as they have always died....and that's nothing new. What does that have to do with the 95% of the people who are not involved in the drug trade? Some violent crime is up, but crime overall is down....so again...unless you are in the drug trade = death, overall crime is down again = what am I supposed to be worrying about exactly?
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