Condos in Mott Haven....... (crime, credit, townhouses)

[Guywithacause]

UpsonDowns...agreed that the economy is cyclical...however what has happened in the last ten years is that the rises and falls that were so pronounced 30+ years ago, are not nearly as extreme. The events of Sept 11 would have likely crippled the city 30 years ago....but today it created a negligible, short lived (3 quarters) of stunted/negative growth. Some jobs were lost, but in the end the city became stronger, diversified its economy more....so its in an even better position now. The sextreme wings of yesteryear seem not to apply anymore...as there is more consistency, diversity, and transparency in the market place.

Does this mean there will be no more extreme swings? Of course not.....anything goes in this city...and something as simple as a bad mayor running this city (see Dinkins) can easily throw the city back into an undesireable place again..so who knows. I believe that the extreme swings no longer apply..there are smaller ups and downs, but teh long term trends are obverwhelmingly positive.

In this city...a weak dollar brings more international money, a strong dollar brings more local money.....there is always money flowing in.

[SeventhFloor]

the bottom line is that this development is going to take a long time moving all these units because they are simply priced too high for the location. forget the public housing. what amenities does mott haven have to suit a person making the money to afford a place like this?

guywithacause, lets pretend i'm a potential buyer and you're the broker....now convince me why buying at 305 east 140th street would be the best thing i ever did for myself.

[Guywithacause]

Lol....I agree that in the current market it will take a longer time to sell these units...but the builder/developer knew that going in...and as we already know..they have already made their money 3x over..so no rush..when they sell..they sell..at the price that the developer will take...either way they have/will make money hand over fist at whatever price.

As for trying to sell this to you...I cannot do that on here..that's silly. What I can say...is that the owner bought it about 7 years ago for..I dunno...$200,000 (or less I don't remember), which at that time I suspect you would have given the same reasons not to buy the entire building: too much money for the area, no amenities. Fast forward 7 years later, condos are being sold at $350,000 -$750,000 (excluding the retail space)...and you are giving the same reason/excuse.

I wonder if 7 years from now we (or another pair of NYers) will be having the same discussion about condos selling for $1,000,000 in the area with someone giving the same old story: too much money..no amenities. Only time will tell....I still bet on the market rising.

[SeventhFloor]

Originally Posted by Guywithacause

Lol....I agree that in the current market it will take a longer time to sell these units...but the builder/developer knew that going in...and as we already know..they have already made their money 3x over..so no rush..when they sell..they sell..at the price that the developer will take...either way they have/will make money hand over fist at whatever price.

As for trying to sell this to you...I cannot do that on here..that's silly. What I can say...is that the owner bought it about 7 years ago for..I dunno...$200,000 (or less I don't remember), which at that time I suspect you would have given the same reasons not to buy the entire building: too much money for the area, no amenities. Fast forward 7 years later, condos are being sold at $350,000 -$750,000 (excluding the retail space)...and you are giving the same reason/excuse.

I wonder if 7 years from now we (or another pair of NYers) will be having the same discussion about condos selling for $1,000,000 in the area with someone giving the same old story: too much money..no amenities. Only time will tell....I still bet on the market rising.

why is it silly? obviously you are in support of the project. and in another 7 years this building will be rentals instead of co-ops.

[UpsonDowns]

Originally Posted by Hustla718

If you are looking for an area to move, look for an area that will stay solid. Areas very close to the downtown core will always be valued.

That is not true. Places very close to midtown were once "ghetto."

When I first moved to Manhattan there were trannie hookers and legions of homeless people near the tv studio where I worked in the Meatpacking District.

People were afraid to visit my first apartment in Hell's Kitchen. And when I moved to the East Village, I would joke of the gauntlet I would run from the subway to my apartment: first the hookers and pimps on 12th St and 2nd Ave, then the junkies and pushers on 1st Ave and then I would have to walk in the middle of the street on my block between 1st and A because of the rats covering the sidewalks.

I once worked at a photoshoot in Tribeca and we had to bang on the oustide door before we left the building so the rats would make room for us to walk. The streets were littered with crushed rats that had been run over. That was in 1995 in Manhattan. Those neighborhoods are a lot closer to midtown than Queens and they were bad. How can anyone say that it won't go back. We are just one crack epidemic and a recession away. If the dollar keeps falling, real estate or any investment in the US won't be good for foreign investors and they will pull out.

Who will keep us afloat then? All those goods we produce? Oh right. We don't do that anymore. The financial markets? London is creeping up on us on that end. I truly hope we continue to be an innovative country or else we will be in dire straights.

[apvbguy]

Originally Posted by UpsonDowns

That is not true. Places very close to midtown were once "ghetto."

while it is true that there were some very rough areas close to midtown, those areas had a huge advantage over places in the outer boros when people look at reviving an area, no place can match a location close to mid town.
Just a few years ago Clinton was hells kitchen and that was as dicey an area as you can get, other areas were bad too like north east of gramercy park in the 20's from lex to first was a bit rough, Chelsea was always known as being rough because of the big pj there, even Columbus and Amsterdam aves in the 70's and 80's (streets not years) were sketchy at best, the meat packing area was just a desolate place where bad things could happen.
But there is big money out there and all these places are just blocks away from mid town and that is where the overflow of affluence is going.
the crowd that propped those and other areas up are not going to the Bronx or Brooklyn. yes you are seeing some artists move out to dumbo and even to Mott haven but dreams of replicating SOHO are just dreams.
One thing that Dumbo had going for it was that people from the area weren't displaced by the refuges from Manhattan, they mostly moved into old warehouses, this isn't likely to repeat in other areas.

And you are completely wrong about the dollars value and real estate values, a falling dollar is a plus for Manhattan real estate

[Guywithacause]

7thfloor..I am merely saying that trying to sell you this development via this IM chat is silly...not the project itself. I can sell an eskimo ice....but probably not via an internet chat room is all I am saying.

It is entirely possibly the building will never sell any units...or sell all units at the ask price....you never know..it is alson possible to have them all converted to rentals. All I can say is..7 years ago had we had a speculative conversation about housing going for $600,000+ and condos marketed for $350,000-$750,000...it would have been laughed at by all..yet here we are today..and that is what is happening..very few of us at the vision at that time to see it or help make it a reality...which differentiates the movers and shakers from the rat race. I am looking forward to the next 5-10 years in Mott Haven!

[UpsonDowns]

Originally Posted by apvbguy

And you are completely wrong about the dollars value and real estate values, a falling dollar is a plus for Manhattan real estate

Investing in the falling dollar is like putting your money in a savings account with a negative interest rate. I believe in buying low and selling high, but I don't see a high coming for the dollar any time soon. What market or government forces are moving to increase the value of the dollar?

Due to high down payment requirements on most Manhattan co-ops, I think they will weather the downturn quite well. All of the condos that foreign buyers are picking up? (See the NYTimes article of a few days ago.) Not so sure about those. But even if they maintain their value, the Euros put into Dollars to buy the apts will lose value as the dollar loses purchasing power.

It's pretty sad when a mere model like Gesele is asking for payments in Euros instead of Dollars.

That's why I am looking to buy a home to live in for the rest of my life instead of trying to speculate on real estate. If it has to be in the hood, so be it. I've lived through that before.

Sorry for the thread hijack.

[SeventhFloor]

Originally Posted by Guywithacause

7thfloor..I am merely saying that trying to sell you this development via this IM chat is silly...not the project itself. I can sell an eskimo ice....but probably not via an internet chat room is all I am saying.

It is entirely possibly the building will never sell any units...or sell all units at the ask price....you never know..it is alson possible to have them all converted to rentals. All I can say is..7 years ago had we had a speculative conversation about housing going for $600,000+ and condos marketed for $350,000-$750,000...it would have been laughed at by all..yet here we are today..and that is what is happening..very few of us at the vision at that time to see it or help make it a reality...which differentiates the movers and shakers from the rat race. I am looking forward to the next 5-10 years in Mott Haven!

yeah but how does this condo signify any good for this neighborhood? either i'm completely missing your logic or maybe i'm just tired from work...but what does the construction of this building mean for mott haven exactly? what are the positives?

[Guywithacause]

The positives have been touched on already in my prior posts...but because you have been reasonably open minded...I shall reiterate them for you and those that are reading:

1-It diversifies the housing stock/opportunities in the area.
2-It offers an alternative to those that may leave the community in search of this type of housing.
3-It offers this type of housing to those seeking it in Mott Haven, or any other affordable area outside of Manhattan.
4-It adds diversification of income, instead of primarily low-income.
5-It brings more money to the area that can be spent on local business and services..keeping the money local.
6-It will likely also bring people from other areas of the city and outside of the city, helping to desegregate the community..new faces..new ideas...new perspectives to an otherwise isolated community.
7-It will serve as a base and comparable to further assess the market for this type of housing..which may encourage more of this type or housing, at different price levels, different variations,etc.
8-It may also encourage further amenities to open in the area to better suit the different needs of the new residents..and further encourage other business to provide a broader assortment of services and products that may otherwise not be available.
9-The residents will likely care about their homes, inside and out, and take care of the building and the immediate area. This may encourage others to do the same!
10-Any little bit that helps bring Mott Haven more inline with the rest of the city, its prosperity, and normalcy will always help.

Those are just off the top of my head!