Will New York ALWAYS be America's biggest city? (Rome: transfer, nightlife)

[UrbanAdventurer]

New York City itself wouldn't be built today if it weren't already there. The country's major population centers are well established and won't jocky as much as they have in the past.

[UrbanAdventurer]

Originally Posted by jjbradleynyc

I'd predict maybe 80-100 years from now, Los Angeles will probably surpass NYC--if it continues to grow. However, the problem with LA and the continued sprawl and all that mess is that water access, pollution, and traffic continue to be huge problems. With that being said, LA if allowed to grow could surpass NYC, but that is assuming NYC doesn't continue to grow.
I'd say at least several generations would pass before New York fell to #2.

I'd be very skeptical of Southern California getting much bigger than it already is. For reasons you already mention, other regions of the country become far more appealing to people considering relocating or already living there. Lots of people are ditching the region because frankly, it's an overgrown mess.

[Kefir King]

Originally Posted by eek

no. nobody wants to spend the money to build anything, whether or not it be infrastructure/mass transit that they actually need or something that hasn't been done yet.

we're too busy watching asia and europe do what we should do.

That's very insightful.
Yes NYC has a concentration and an infrastructure (water, transit, power) that the United States could not possible afford to duplicate today. As such it is uniquely suited to supporting an immense population density.
Passenger cars are doomed and with it the sprawling cities dependent on a gazillion automobiles to provide a workforce.
(This assumes that "work" will continue to exist as the U.S. sinks to inevitable banana-republicdom.)

[UrbanAdventurer]

Originally Posted by Kefir King

That's very insightful.
Yes NYC has a concentration and an infrastructure (water, transit, power) that the United States could not possible afford to duplicate today. As such it is uniquely suited to supporting an immense population density.
Passenger cars are doomed and with it the sprawling cities dependent on a gazillion automobiles to provide a workforce.
(This assumes that "work" will continue to exist as the U.S. sinks to inevitable banana-republicdom.)

Seems to be headed that way, barring some massive paradigm shift in priorities and values in this country, which I'm not not holding my breath for.

[newwil7l]

L.A metro area will but other than that no unless cities like houston phoenex and charollete keep growing the way they are l.a greww less this time than nyc

[bigpapasmurf76]

Houston could easily overtake Chicago for #3 someday, but New York and LA will likely be 1-2 for a while. Chicago is sitting at 2.7 million (and lost about 200,000 since the last census), and Houston is at about 2.1 (and gained 200,000). However, as a resident of Houston, I don't see where we could stick another 6 million people or so within the city limits :P I don't see the top 4 changing any time soon.

[LongIslandPerson]

As influence/TRADE from the Far East(mainly China and India) increases at a rapid rate, I would say that the Bay Area will become America's largest city.

As for LA, I think it's infastructure can't support much many people but San Fracisco has a decent public transportation system at least compared to LA... It also has the culture and nightlife that also keeps it as an attractive location.

[illinidorry]

San Francisco is already the 2nd densest city in the country behind NYC, I don't know where they could put another 7.8 million people. Also the peninsula and surrounding Bay Area is rather built up already. Not to mention the job loss in the outlying areas, I don't see how much they can grow any time soon. LA doesn't have the infrastructure. For it to be more populous than NYC it would have to grow outward 2 or 3 times....its already pretty maxed out. No American city will surpass New York barring a armageddon type scenario.

[itshim]

I don't know if anything will "always" be the same, but I think it's safe to say that NYC will probably remain the US's largest city in our life times and probably even that of our children's.

NYC is still growing and will continue growing until something stifles that. Besides, it's not as if any city is even close. NY is basically twice the size of the 2nd largest city in the US already. And like someone already mentioned, Brooklyn and Queens alone give the rest a run for their money in population growth.

I also think the "greater" NYC area will remain the largest. I can't see any counties surpassing WestChester, and Long Island.

[ddhboy]

Originally Posted by Kefir King

I depends where the next waves of immigrants decide to settle. When the population of the U.S. hits half a billion, who can say.

A lot depends on whether NYC can remain the financial center of the world or drift into insignificance. When the jobs go, so do the people.

As it turns out, the immigrants tend to be hitting the suburbs these days. Probably a consequence for higher cost of living in cities, or at least in cities which are growing.