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Old 10-01-2012, 04:52 PM
 
Location: Bronx, NY
5,720 posts, read 19,999,324 times
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Can someone please tell me how the Bronx has seen more shootings now than a decade ago (25% increase from 2001), with ALL the south Bronx neighborhoods having WAY more shootings now than in 2001, yet it has much less homicides.



Oh and btw, the city has seen an increase in crime. More than the last two years in every category except homicides.
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Old 10-01-2012, 07:39 PM
 
Location: Brooklyn, NY $$$
6,836 posts, read 15,349,189 times
Reputation: 1667
Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMario View Post
Can someone please tell me how the Bronx has seen more shootings now than a decade ago (25% increase from 2001), with ALL the south Bronx neighborhoods having WAY more shootings now than in 2001, yet it has much less homicides.



Oh and btw, the city has seen an increase in crime. More than the last two years in every category except homicides.
You Bronx folk aren't aiming right. Shooting range my dude, shooting range. That's all I gotta say.
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Old 10-01-2012, 10:33 PM
 
Location: Bronx
16,200 posts, read 22,957,548 times
Reputation: 8344
Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMario View Post
Can someone please tell me how the Bronx has seen more shootings now than a decade ago (25% increase from 2001), with ALL the south Bronx neighborhoods having WAY more shootings now than in 2001, yet it has much less homicides.



Oh and btw, the city has seen an increase in crime. More than the last two years in every category except homicides.
Most of that increase in crime is iphone related.
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Old 10-02-2012, 07:31 AM
 
8,743 posts, read 18,327,075 times
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SuperWario I am sure you are tickled pink in the increase over the last year or so. As for the shootings..who knows..you are picking an arbitrary year comparison..maybe it's because this year it's higher vs 2001 and next year it might be lower vs 2002. Which is why the smart people don't look at 1 or 2 years and make a deduction...they look at long term trends.
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Old 10-02-2012, 08:12 AM
 
Location: Bronx, NY
5,720 posts, read 19,999,324 times
Reputation: 2358
Quote:
Originally Posted by SobroGuy View Post
SuperWario I am sure you are tickled pink in the increase over the last year or so. As for the shootings..who knows..you are picking an arbitrary year comparison..maybe it's because this year it's higher vs 2001 and next year it might be lower vs 2002. Which is why the smart people don't look at 1 or 2 years and make a deduction...they look at long term trends.
But guy, this is the a 3 year trend of increasing crime.

Percent increase from last year and from 2010

Rape: 4.4/12.3
Robbery: 4.0/5.4
Felony Assault: 3.4/12.7

When was the last time you've seen a crime category jump 12%? BXguyanese, the Iphone may explain the increase in robberies but it doesn't explain rape or FA.

This is a stark increase in crime.

Sobro, look at the percent increase in Bronx shootings from 2001.

Shooting Victims/Shooting Incidents

40th precinct: 66.7/55.7
41st precinct: 77.8/50.0
42nd precinct: 44.8/34.6
43rd precinct: 10.3/11.8
44th precinct: 17.1/9.4
46th precinct: 56.7/53.8

Ready for the kicker?

48th precinct: 127.3/133.3
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Old 10-02-2012, 08:30 AM
 
8,743 posts, read 18,327,075 times
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From 1993-2010, which is a longer term trend, we had years where crime went up. But what was the reality? The longer term trend was DOWN. It may be that over the last couple of years the rates have gone up and will be going up for the next few years...or it may be that this is an aberration in an otherwise longer term trend down, as it was in some years from 1993-2010.

So I repeat, we do not know and you are picking an arbitrary time frame and arbitrary crime categories, while ignoring the longer term trends. We need several more years of data to know whether something is actually changing. You can claim the world is coming to an end because of 2 years of data...while those of us who are bit more experienced understand at this point it is not a game changer.

But time will tell. If it drops precipitously next year, as it often does...what will be the conversation then? You'll pick another random crime category, another random year and talk about how crime is going up! And you would be wrong, yet again...your methods are flawed. When you take a statistics class at Bronx Community College, then come talk to me.
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Old 10-02-2012, 10:16 AM
 
Location: Ridgewood, NY
3,025 posts, read 6,789,820 times
Reputation: 1601
Quote:
Originally Posted by SobroGuy View Post
From 1993-2010, which is a longer term trend, we had years where crime went up. But what was the reality? The longer term trend was DOWN. It may be that over the last couple of years the rates have gone up and will be going up for the next few years...or it may be that this is an aberration in an otherwise longer term trend down, as it was in some years from 1993-2010.

So I repeat, we do not know and you are picking an arbitrary time frame and arbitrary crime categories, while ignoring the longer term trends. We need several more years of data to know whether something is actually changing. You can claim the world is coming to an end because of 2 years of data...while those of us who are bit more experienced understand at this point it is not a game changer.

But time will tell. If it drops precipitously next year, as it often does...what will be the conversation then? You'll pick another random crime category, another random year and talk about how crime is going up! And you would be wrong, yet again...your methods are flawed. When you take a statistics class at Bronx Community College, then come talk to me.
So how long should our trend rate be... 20 years is good? Not 40? Not 100? Supermario is showing you legitimate statistics that can potentially disprove your theory about the long term trend... If we've been on that same trend from 01-09 or whatever the case may be and the last few years we've been on an increasing crime trend and especially violent crime (not murders necesarily, but felony assaults, rapes, etc.) and the Bronx is now back on par with 2001 numbers... That indicates a change... I don't know how the murder rate is so low when you hear so many stories throughout the week of 26 year old ex-con, man with a large rap sheet, man with sealed record, etc. shot dead and yet week in and week out the number of murders for the week come out to 3 or 5 when if you just count the amount of articles describing murder, week in and week out they amount to more... Honestly, only a complete bafoon would believe the murder statistics and what is probably happening is that since crime has been on an increasing trend over the last 3 or 4 years, Mayor Bloomberg and the police force are grasping for that last straw (i.e. the murder rate) to convince the public that the city is much safer than it already is...

Personally, where I'm at right now, I've never felt safer so I can understand why people go with the flow with these statistics... That being said, one neighborhood does not make an entire city and the facts indicate that crime is on the rise in this city... I just wish instead of covering up the crime, they would report it so that things can be done to about it... Sadly, Bloomberg is too busy working on real problems and spending money on real things... Soda bans and $60 million dollar beautification projects or 5 million dollar bathroom renovations for parks... What a great city we live in when cuts NEED to be made to education, police force, fdny, sanitation, etc. meanwhile the hundreds of other beautification projects are considered a must...
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Old 10-02-2012, 12:17 PM
 
8,743 posts, read 18,327,075 times
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My assertion is not a theory. Nobody goes by 2 years of data and makes an assessment on whether the trends have changed. I do agree that Ray Kelly is grasping for the last straw...they are out of tricks and reality is kicking in. He has to go, and the only way to change the toxic culture of the NYPD is to change the one poisoning it...and that's 100% Ray Kelly.

I also agree the only way to address crime in NYC is firstly to acknowledge the crimes we do have. Purposely downgrading crimes and making it difficult to report crimes is pathetic and a real disservice to the residents of this city. That's not an effective police force..that is an inept and corrupt one..and again..Ray Kelly is promoting the lies and deception within the department. He has to go and with it the toxic culture.
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Old 10-02-2012, 12:43 PM
 
Location: Ridgewood, NY
3,025 posts, read 6,789,820 times
Reputation: 1601
Quote:
Originally Posted by SobroGuy View Post
My assertion is not a theory. Nobody goes by 2 years of data and makes an assessment on whether the trends have changed. I do agree that Ray Kelly is grasping for the last straw...they are out of tricks and reality is kicking in. He has to go, and the only way to change the toxic culture of the NYPD is to change the one poisoning it...and that's 100% Ray Kelly.

I also agree the only way to address crime in NYC is firstly to acknowledge the crimes we do have. Purposely downgrading crimes and making it difficult to report crimes is pathetic and a real disservice to the residents of this city. That's not an effective police force..that is an inept and corrupt one..and again..Ray Kelly is promoting the lies and deception within the department. He has to go and with it the toxic culture.
I don't think Kelly is the sole person responsible for the situation we see with the NYPD... the downgrading of crimes seems more likely to come from the mayor's seat than the police commissioner one... Secondly, what you fail to address is that supermario was not discussing 2011, he mentioned 2001... A ten year period. That IS significant. Granted, the crime rate was still much lower than previous years but much higher than 5 years ago... And what the stats are indicating is that the shooting incidences and victims are nearly equal to that of 10 years ago for the Bronx... This is a problem that is on the rise in the city and not over a one year or two year period but for what is approaching 4-5 years now...
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Old 10-02-2012, 03:17 PM
 
8,743 posts, read 18,327,075 times
Reputation: 4168
It may come from the Mayor's seat, however ultimately it is Ray Kelly who is responsible and supports and promotes this deceipt. He is actively complicit, and not just an innocent bystander/victim. He has to go.

As for SuperWario's comment, you are misreading his quote. He was not mentioning a 10 year period...ie 2001-2011...he compared 2001 vs 2011...not the time in between, just those individual 2 years...alot happened in those 10 years which he ignores. You cannot ignore a decade and simply choose random years to compare to. His methodology is flawed.
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