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the last winter in nyc that i can recall which was warm was in 1998. if i can remember around late march the temperature was around 80 degrees. I hope this weather has nothing to do with solar wind activity up in space.
I'm trying as hard as I can to think of this "winter" as a prelude to spring...but in the back of my mind, I can't stop thinking about March. We could still get zapped.
I'm trying as hard as I can to think of this "winter" as a prelude to spring...but in the back of my mind, I can't stop thinking about March. We could still get zapped.
On the other hand, my air conditioner is primed and ready to go on next week if needed.
I am a firm believer in man-enhanced global warming, perhaps as severe as even the most strident critics claim so I am looking forward to warmer and shorter Winters as the years go on.
(And who can forget last Summer when for days on end the temperature refused to go below 90 degrees even at 4AM?)
The meaning behind these graphs, for me, tells the whole story:
I wish I remembered how to do a "best fit" line through data points and thus get an idea of average increase per decade, but Statistics 101 was a LONG time ago.
Last edited by Kefir King; 02-27-2012 at 07:41 AM..
I think the only time I can recall a warm day in the winter was in 2006...in February. It was in the high 50s or so and I was remorseful that I had brought my coat.
I think the only time I can recall a warm day in the winter was in 2006...in February. It was in the high 50s or so and I was remorseful that I had brought my coat.
We've hit very near 60 several times this month. In fact YESTERDAY got to 59 degrees in Central park.
Another interesting trend (copied from a post I made in the weather forum a while back):
It doesn't snow like it used to:
Remarkably, five of New York City's top-ten snowfalls of the past 142 years have occurred in the past decade (highlighted in the list below.) According to the National Weather Service, the top ten snowstorms on record for New York City's Central Park since 1869 should now read:
1) 26.9" Feb 11-12, 2006
2) 26.4" Dec 26-27, 1947
3) 21.0" Mar 12-14, 1888
4) 20.8" Feb 25-26, 2010
5) 20.2" Jan 7-8, 1996
6) 20.0" Dec 26-27, 2010
7) 19.8" Feb 16-17, 2003
8) 19.0" Jan 26-27, 2011
9) 18.1" Mar 7-8, 1941
10) 17.7" Feb 5-7, 1978
Great graphics above showing temperature anomalies...I have done some research on Central Park temperature and precipitation yearly anomalies since records started at KNYC and there is no question that it is getting both warmer and wetter.
THIS is climate change and global warming.
This weather that we have seen this winter is NOT directly related to global warming, but rather a teleconnection known as the NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation.
The NAO is the dominant mode of winter climate variability in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North America to Europe and much into Northern Asia. The NAO is a large-*‐scale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high (Bermuda area) and the polar low (Iceland).
There are two phases of the NAO: positive and negative.
Positive: Stronger subtropical high, stronger Icelandic Low
Negative: Weaker subtropical high, weaker Icelandic Low
NYC Sensible Winter Weather, positive NAO: Warm and mild with zonal flow pattern (e.g., this winter)
NYC Sensible Winter Weather, negative NAO: Cold and snowy with meridional pattern (e.g., last winter)
In case you are wondering, here is the latest ensemble forecast for the NAO over the next few weeks. Looks to stay positive (and thus, snow will remain unlikely):
and the ECMWF's (European Center For Medium-Range Weather Forecasting) spring outlook (keep in mind, this model NAILED our mild temperatures this winter):
Another interesting trend (copied from a post I made in the weather forum a while back):
It doesn't snow like it used to:
I knew that!
When I was a kid, we could count on three or four major snowstorms each winter. These days, if there's a threat of four inches, you'd think civilization was about to come crashing down if you listened to the local weather reports.
Fred,
I think nei was being a bit tongue in cheek. His data shows it DOES snow like it did when we were kids, in fact a lot MORE.
Thus 5 of the last 8 years have been in the top 10 for snowfall since records began.
So we are getting warm and wet...and the wet part apparently can mean more snow, even if that seems startling.
(Antarctica for example, the coldest spot on Earth is really almost a Desert as far as precipitation.)
My point was that it doesn't snow like it used to; it used to snow less. But yea, I was being tongue-in-cheek.
The 96 snowstorm happened when I was a kid; it seemed was considered unusual at the time. Now, similar storms have occurred often in the last decade.
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