U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > New York > New York City
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 04-19-2012, 07:26 PM
 
Location: Florence, Italy
196 posts, read 254,519 times
Reputation: 99

Advertisements

i read an article about two years ago, i believe it was in the economist, that made an interesting point. they brought forth an interesting point, that people would leave the metropolitan areas of today and semi-large cities, such as Austin for example, would become the metropolitan areas of tomorrow. another theory they proposed that people instead would, in large numbers, migrate to the suburbs and the the county as a whole would have most of it's population in suburbs and and there would e a greater disparity between the rich and poor in the cities.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 04-19-2012, 08:00 PM
 
Location: Staten Island, NY
7,925 posts, read 6,506,200 times
Reputation: 7103
College debt is the fault of the generation of parents who pushed the idea of BS degrees on their kids, saddling them with debt. They knew what they were getting in to. I'm from this generation also (the older end of it), and I know plenty of people who chose to work hard for the right degrees - medical, engineering, international industries - and are doing very well for themselves because of it. There's also people like me who chose to hold off on college because we couldn't afford it, and with proper decisions along that path, are still doing quite well, and earning a degree on my own time in an affordable manner (while paying a mortgage in one of the best neighborhoods in the city).

Burdening yourself with debt is always a bad decision, no matter what kind of debt it is. I have no sympathy for the liberal arts crowd when they cry about student loans.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-19-2012, 11:27 PM
 
Location: Crown Heights
965 posts, read 2,110,851 times
Reputation: 518
Quote:
Originally Posted by Airborneguy View Post
College debt is the fault of the generation of parents who pushed the idea of BS degrees on their kids, saddling them with debt. They knew what they were getting in to. I'm from this generation also (the older end of it), and I know plenty of people who chose to work hard for the right degrees - medical, engineering, international industries - and are doing very well for themselves because of it. There's also people like me who chose to hold off on college because we couldn't afford it, and with proper decisions along that path, are still doing quite well, and earning a degree on my own time in an affordable manner (while paying a mortgage in one of the best neighborhoods in the city).

Burdening yourself with debt is always a bad decision, no matter what kind of debt it is. I have no sympathy for the liberal arts crowd when they cry about student loans.
I'm sure I'm about the same age as you (26-32), but you can't blame the previous generation for pushing us to get B.S. degrees. In those times, if you had one you were almost guaranteed to get a career in something. but in the last decade or so, things have begun to change and what was once marketable is now obsolete. But I don't regret going to school, it was the best decision I ever made.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-20-2012, 06:07 AM
 
Location: Staten Island, NY
7,925 posts, read 6,506,200 times
Reputation: 7103
I'm 33, right on the cusp of the various X-Y estimations. I believe I have more X characteristics , probably because I hung out with my youngest uncle a lot growing up. He's the middle of X.

I blame the parents because even the smartest, most mature 18 year olds rarely have the capacity to look into their early thirties when making decisions just after high school. I decided to join the military because I had no idea what I wanted to do. I knew I couldn't afford college without serious loans, while at the same time having no clue what I wanted to major in. Now, 15-16 years later, I'm surrounded by people my age omplaining that their art and literature degrees cost $100k and didn't make them rich. Poor decisions. I don't feel bad for them and its no one's fault other than their parents and themselves.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-20-2012, 08:52 AM
 
Location: Burlington, VT
509 posts, read 2,066,137 times
Reputation: 276
Airborneguy - Sounds like we're very similar. I'm the same age as you, on the cusp of GenX and GenY, and I also identify with GenX more.

I'll try to frame my point in keeping on topic here: There ARE plenty of jobs out there for those in the "right" fields. It doesn't take a brilliant person to figure out what those fields are, either. It shouldn't come as a shock to anyone that if you go to school for a liberal arts related degree that you will have a tough go of it. Not to say you can never make a comfortable living but it will take much more work than if you are in technology, engineering, law, or even trades. Most BA degrees just don't give you marketable skills.

Sooo...how does this relate to real estate? There is and will be a market for those in tech, finance, engineering, medicine, etc, etc. If you're young and bright in NYC you can build a career that will allow you to purchase real estate in the area. It can take you ten plus years but if you apply yourself you can get to that point. The "creative class" (and this doesn't just meant those in the arts) as has been studied by Richard Florida over the last decade+ will continue to be drawn to the major cities in the US and will continue to create demand for real estate in places like NYC.

This process will inevitably lead to further displacement as fringe areas are revitalized and the cycle will just keep perpetuating itself. GenX and GenY are looking for a certain type of lifestyle that they can find in NYC and they will continue driving the trend.

Anecdotal evidence: I'm currently buying my first place and condos that are priced fairly are flying off the market. We've been outbid in attorney review, we've regularly been to open houses where places have only been on the market a week and are already in contract, etc.

NYC and the other major cities (SF, LA, Boston, Chicago) are insulated to an extent from what happens in the rest of the US. I don't foresee housing prices flying through the roof like in 2005 because buyers have started thinking of their houses as homes and not investments. Hopefully it stays this way. I do expect a return to normal appreciation rates, though.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-20-2012, 09:18 AM
 
Location: USA
8,016 posts, read 9,091,964 times
Reputation: 3383
^ i don't get the use of talking about
people you don't care about, unless
you can help them solve their problem.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-20-2012, 09:52 AM
 
Location: Burlington, VT
509 posts, read 2,066,137 times
Reputation: 276
Quote:
Originally Posted by 11KAP View Post
^ i don't get the use of talking about
people you don't care about, unless
you can help them solve their problem.
Not sure what you're talking about. What degrees people choose to get? If so, that's a problem of their own choosing.

Unrelated: Why are your posts all formatted like haikus?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-20-2012, 02:03 PM
 
Location: Newark, NJ/BK
1,271 posts, read 2,179,551 times
Reputation: 662
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeffcon0 View Post
Airborneguy - Sounds like we're very similar. I'm the same age as you, on the cusp of GenX and GenY, and I also identify with GenX more.

I'll try to frame my point in keeping on topic here: There ARE plenty of jobs out there for those in the "right" fields. It doesn't take a brilliant person to figure out what those fields are, either. It shouldn't come as a shock to anyone that if you go to school for a liberal arts related degree that you will have a tough go of it. Not to say you can never make a comfortable living but it will take much more work than if you are in technology, engineering, law, or even trades. Most BA degrees just don't give you marketable skills.

Sooo...how does this relate to real estate? There is and will be a market for those in tech, finance, engineering, medicine, etc, etc. If you're young and bright in NYC you can build a career that will allow you to purchase real estate in the area. It can take you ten plus years but if you apply yourself you can get to that point. The "creative class" (and this doesn't just meant those in the arts) as has been studied by Richard Florida over the last decade+ will continue to be drawn to the major cities in the US and will continue to create demand for real estate in places like NYC.

This process will inevitably lead to further displacement as fringe areas are revitalized and the cycle will just keep perpetuating itself. GenX and GenY are looking for a certain type of lifestyle that they can find in NYC and they will continue driving the trend.

Anecdotal evidence: I'm currently buying my first place and condos that are priced fairly are flying off the market. We've been outbid in attorney review, we've regularly been to open houses where places have only been on the market a week and are already in contract, etc.

NYC and the other major cities (SF, LA, Boston, Chicago) are insulated to an extent from what happens in the rest of the US. I don't foresee housing prices flying through the roof like in 2005 because buyers have started thinking of their houses as homes and not investments. Hopefully it stays this way. I do expect a return to normal appreciation rates, though.
I absolutely get what you're saying. In fact, my major can be considered one of those that still gives people opportunity to make a good living. But here's what I question: how much higher can these rents and house prices really go?! There HAS to be a limit because working wages are certainly not increasing that high and as I mentioned, student debt is at it's highest it's ever been. Like you just said, I do think the rates have no choice but to come down to normal rates or even in some cases, the bubble just flat out busts.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-20-2012, 02:05 PM
 
Location: USA
8,016 posts, read 9,091,964 times
Reputation: 3383
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeffcon0 View Post
Not sure what you're talking about. What degrees people choose to get? If so, that's a problem of their own choosing.

Unrelated: Why are your posts all formatted like haikus?

because i don't feel like writing all the way across the page, ya dig?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-20-2012, 02:21 PM
 
Location: Burlington, VT
509 posts, read 2,066,137 times
Reputation: 276
Quote:
Originally Posted by njnyckid View Post
I absolutely get what you're saying. In fact, my major can be considered one of those that still gives people opportunity to make a good living. But here's what I question: how much higher can these rents and house prices really go?! There HAS to be a limit because working wages are certainly not increasing that high and as I mentioned, student debt is at it's highest it's ever been. Like you just said, I do think the rates have no choice but to come down to normal rates or even in some cases, the bubble just flat out busts.
Good question and I obviously don't have the answer to it. My thinking is that real estate prices are close to a bottom. It's at the point where a couple who, if they have done reasonably well in their careers, can consider buying a modest starter 1 bedroom. NYC always has had a much lower rate of home ownership than the rest of the country so not everyone will be able to afford to buy a place. However, I think it's reasonable that a couple who has chosen their career paths wisely, worked hard, and saved can make ~$125 - $150k combined which is enough to buy in any number of areas in NYC. Even some of the desirable ones.

I'm using those numbers as my own barometer for what I think is a reasonable wage for two 30-somethings in fields with good employment prospects. I'm predicting a bottom based on those assumptions so obviously if someone else's definition of a "reasonable middle class NYC wage" differs than they may disagree with me.

I think the climbing of rents and the bottoming of home prices is getting closer to a historical equilibrium where people wanting to buy will buy and those wanting to rent will rent. This should cause rents and real estate prices to go back to their historical, (relatively) sane increases.

Again, just my opinion and I'm not an economist. Just a 30 something who works a decent middle class (by NYC standards) job, saved hard for many years while renting, and is now getting the opportunity to buy.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:



Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > New York > New York City
Similar Threads
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

2005-2018, Advameg, Inc.

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top