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Old 04-18-2012, 07:59 PM
 
Location: Newark, NJ/NYC
1,154 posts, read 1,159,334 times
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Default The Future of NYC Real Estate (and the rest of America)

So I just across this article that makes the argument that Generation Y (my generation) will be able to keep the real estate of NYC and other major cities going strong. One of the main reasons being the rising interest in living in urban cities again. IMO, while there is no doubt a new attitude towards living in cities that's been coming around for the last decade or so, I think this article is not thinking this through at all especially in terms of NYC. Number one, with the ridiculously high prices of houses, there will be a VERY limited number of my generation who will be able to buy them. Number two, before we think about buying houses, we gotta pay off these inflated subsidized student loans. Number three, there are still a great number of global economies that are really struggling (particularly in Europe) and if something really bad occurs in other country's economy, us here in the US will not be able to escape that. I know, lately, real estate in NYC has been doing really well, but I'm not sure if it can last that long especially if people are depending on our generation, which IMO is financially *you know the rest*

Gen Y’ers Will Keep Brooklyn Real Estate Going Strong | Brownstoner

Any other opinions? If one disagrees, I'd really be interested in your viewpoint.
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Old 04-18-2012, 08:16 PM
 
Location: Bed-stuy/Clinton Hill
952 posts, read 1,275,896 times
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lol, damn I literally just posted a thread about a related topic. Trust me, I didn't bite yours. LOL

With that said, I agree with all the points you made. Very well assessed. Besides, Brownstoner has always been known to give blind allegiance to the development agenda. They always seem to easily overlook alot of basic factors that you just pointed out.
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Old 04-18-2012, 08:59 PM
 
1,265 posts, read 1,152,365 times
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The number one reason is the lack if children. Children are expensive to raise. Somewhere on the order of 15k per year. Also children mean larger dwellings. Do people with kids have roommates into their late 20's and early 30's?

The money that went to raise kids is now going toward inflated rental prices.

Why Gen Y ishaving kids so late or at all is a bit more complicated of an answer. Student debt plays a role. The ever bifurcating labor market plays a role. The lack of employment stability plays a role. Etc.
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Old 04-18-2012, 09:08 PM
 
Location: Brooklyn, NY born & raised!
2,190 posts, read 1,560,900 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wawaweewa View Post
The number one reason is the lack if children. Children are expensive to raise. Somewhere on the order of 15k per year. Also children mean larger dwellings. Do people with kids have roommates into their late 20's and early 30's?

The money that went to raise kids is now going toward inflated rental prices.

Why Gen Y ishaving kids so late or at all is a bit more complicated of an answer. Student debt plays a role. The ever bifurcating labor market plays a role. The lack of employment stability plays a role. Etc.
This. Or they move to the suburbs once they have kids or out of state all together. When I visited Dallas this past week, a LOT of people I met were transplants from California and New York because they couldn't afford the high cost of living and rent anymore.

Either that or the spouse just replaces the roommate, and the 2nd bedroom the roommate occupied is now meant for the kid.
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Old 04-18-2012, 11:00 PM
 
Location: Brooklyn, NY
106 posts, read 137,185 times
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You should probably link to the full article:
Why Gen Y is causing the Great Migration of the 21st Century | Better! Cities & Towns Online

I agree with some major points in the article. Particularly the fact that instead of leaving the city to start families in the suburbs, a lot of suburbanites are moving to the city to start families. Surely the influx of people from the suburbs to major cities like NY is only going to push Real estate up in all areas. There is already limited vacancies and inventory on the market. Where other parts of the nation has hurt in terms of the market, NY rebounded quickly and is still staying pretty strong.

During the height of the recession, landlords were offering all sorts of concessions to lure renters. Not anymore. Certain real estate across the city is already seeing bidding wars over condos or brownstones...read NY Times article about it. I can only foresee this going the same path as San Francisco.
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Old 04-19-2012, 04:19 AM
 
Location: The Milky Way Galaxy
2,235 posts, read 3,461,212 times
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While I agree more people are migrating toward the cities, the cities are limited in the amount of affordable housing. Only so many people can fit and as the numbers of available housing units goes down, rent and buy prices go up and up.

I can also see this shift in thinking affecting "urban-like suburban" areas around NYC on the NY and NJ sides. For those that want easy fast access to the city but want that suburban type feel, there are plenty of towns like that...I can see home values and rent prices in those towns going up as well.
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Old 04-19-2012, 05:45 AM
 
457 posts, read 110,052 times
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NYC real estate = luxury buildings that a few can afford.
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Old 04-19-2012, 06:57 AM
 
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I generally agree with the article, but not the Brownstoner's conclusion that it will drive Brooklyn's real estate. I think it will drive urban area real estate, but not necessarily those which are hyper inflated which some areas of Brooklyn are. They don't cater to GenY, they cater to old farts / finance industry moneyed crowd which is not synonymous with Gen Y.

Gen Y will be transforming areas on the periphery, like Harlem, Southern Bronx, etc, areas which are still in NYC, provide the urban environment and conveniences, are much more affordable, a very short/easy commute to prime districts, and an opportunity to "buy-in" to the NYC market and yield a profit over time.

The overall trend to urban environments bodes well for NYC, however Gen Y will be moving to "up and coming" areas, not already established/wealthy enclaves.
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Old 04-19-2012, 07:23 AM
 
Location: Bronx
7,967 posts, read 6,567,114 times
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I wonder how can gen y folks can afford to pay these high rents when many owe five figure debts in student loans? I guess many will hold off of making s Caleb, josh or Zoe anytime soon until they get their finances straightened out. Sadly the article only talks about suburbanites moving to NYC, I wish the article could have shed some light on native educated new yorkers who choose to stay in the city instead of moving to suburbia. Also note many other parts of the city close to city core will become ideal to suburbanites like north shore Staten island near the ferry, Washington heights and inwood, and lower portions of the south Bronx. Overall good article but I still have some doubts especially about schooling in the city.
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Old 04-19-2012, 07:53 AM
 
Location: USA
5,909 posts, read 3,163,641 times
Reputation: 1935
people think they have everything figured out
for the new generation but why aren't there
enough jobs yet?
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