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Old 07-20-2013, 11:59 PM
 
853 posts, read 815,504 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Glynn's Ghost View Post
I make no such assumption. Not all, not most. My research is showing that such landlords are a small percentage. But there are still enough of them to spell big trouble.
Furthermore, the insolvent renters seem, and I emphasize seem, to wind up disproportionately as the tenants of the semi-solvent landlords.
The reason why the crash was bad was not because a few people were defaulting. It was because MANY were defaulting. Multifamily home owners that rely on rental income make up a small percentage of homeowners. Of that small perctange, only a small per tante probably has tenants that are living beyond their means. While I'm not saying those home owners that end up defaulting because of this don't matter, I don't think there enough of them to cause another crash similar to the one in 2008.
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Old 07-21-2013, 12:15 AM
 
Location: Satellite Of Love
296 posts, read 376,581 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wawaweewa View Post
The banks are healthier than ever.

They offloaded their garbage unto the FRB's balance sheet which ultimately means the US treasury's balance sheet which then leads to the globes balance sheet seeing that the USD still reigns supreme.

Another Lehman will not happen anytime soon.
I'm not so convinced by this. They're still vulnerable to systemic failures or to a perfect storm of derivative trades gone wrong.
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Old 07-21-2013, 12:16 AM
 
20 posts, read 19,168 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Astorian31 View Post
The reason why the crash was bad was not because a few people were defaulting. It was because MANY were defaulting. Multifamily home owners that rely on rental income make up a small percentage of homeowners. Of that small perctange, only a small per tante probably has tenants that are living beyond their means. While I'm not saying those home owners that end up defaulting because of this don't matter, I don't think there enough of them to cause another crash similar to the one in 2008.
Definitely not. The local implications, however, will be grave.
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Old 07-21-2013, 12:46 AM
 
Location: New York City
7,174 posts, read 5,548,055 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Glynn's Ghost View Post
My training as an economist demands that I compare the two, and leads me to conclude that there is more similarity than meets the eye, and that the future of the latter may be even more catastrophic than the present of the former. What they share is hubris, on the part of their leading industries.
Go ask for your money back at your alumn college
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Old 07-21-2013, 01:51 AM
 
23,303 posts, read 16,175,014 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wawaweewa View Post
Immigrants are much more important. They work hard for lower pay. They save and they build.

NYC has no shortage of immigrants.

This is without the immigration bill passing. If the bill passes in some form, NYC will absorb a substantial percentage of immigrants over the next 20 years.

The housing occupancy rate will be extremely high for years to come. Saying otherwise is just ignorance of the dynamics at play.
People overestimate the importance of immigrants. The real money that sustains NYC is corporate and government. Its all about those sources. Should their be a collapse in NYC's corporate sector, for any reason, or should government funding get butchered, no immigrants will be moving to NYC because NO MONEY=NO JOBS!

And good grief, many immigrants end up in public housing or on various government subsidies. I live around a lot of poor immigrants in the North Bronx, and I've lived around a lot of poor immigrants in Central Queens. Many of the immigrants in Central Queens got involved in Roosevelt Avenue prostitution and drug dealing.
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Old 07-21-2013, 01:53 AM
 
23,303 posts, read 16,175,014 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wawaweewa View Post
The banks are healthier than ever.

They offloaded their garbage unto the FRB's balance sheet which ultimately means the US treasury's balance sheet which then leads to the globes balance sheet seeing that the USD still reigns supreme.

Another Lehman will not happen anytime soon.
This is what they told us until we were in the middle of the collapse, things were perfectly fine until they are undeniably weren't.

I wouldn't say a collapse of NYC's economy is eminent. But at the same time, saying that it cannot collapse is just plain silly. ANYTHING can happen.
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Old 07-21-2013, 02:01 AM
 
23,303 posts, read 16,175,014 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bronxguyanese View Post
Dont mke me laugh. You think a bunch of so called wannabe privileged gentrifier is going to save NYC. Dont get me wrong gentrification works but only in small scale but not on longterm. Also the back to the city movement is just a trend which can wear its self out. Once these suburbanites start popping out kids in Harlem and parts of Brooklyn and once they csnt afford private education, its back to the suburbs to raise a family. I already know of a few ex gentrifiers who have done this. But overall I agree with the rest of your post nonetheless.
You're right that the majority of well to do will want to move back to the suburbs when its time to have children, or perhaps even before. Its one thing for a couple of years to have an adventure in the city in a ****ty, small apartment. Its another thing to want to live like that for your whole life. Even in the ghetto you pay quite a bit of money for extremely poor service. So a lot of people will bailout. A lot really already have, they've just gotten replacements. But remember everything comes and goes in popularity. Just because certain NYC neighborhoods are popular doesn't mean they will remain that way.

And honestly, very few neighborhoods have truly gentrified. Places like Chelsea and Williamsburg, yes. Overall, Upper Manhattan no, the Bronx, no, most of Queens, no. You do have an influx of whites into parts of Bedstuy and Bushwick, but these neighborhoods certainly have their ghetto areas as well. So I'm not going to say they truly gentrified in the sense that a Williamsburg or Chelsea has. And even Chelsea still has huge projects!

No one knows what's going to happen in the future, as there are too many variables. But I will say New Orleans population still has not recovered to pre Katrina levels. The other thing is, given that the Bronx is the only part of NYC with North American mainland connections, if we got major damage from a hurricane, it would be truly awful! Would sufficient food and supplies reach people? 3 million people are in an expanded mandatory evacuation zone. How would they get all these people out in the midsts of a true emergency (category 5). This is something the city ignores at its peril, as there maybe too few ways out of Manhattan and Long Island......
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Old 07-21-2013, 02:14 AM
 
23,303 posts, read 16,175,014 times
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I also think the interest of young white suburbanites and transplants from the Midwest in NYC came about as the result of shows like Sex In the City. In the 1990s, inner cities were basically places for POOR people. In the late 90s and 2000s, certain tv shows and films glamourized NYC urban living. Of course they forgot to show projects, they forgot to show there is a HUGE and GROWING HOMELESS population in Manhattan, etc. In other words, the advertising/tv/film industries showed a false image of NYC that people bought into. But as it becomes more deeply ingrained all that glitters is not gold, the magic simply fades.

To live in a NICE area, market rate, you have to make well into the six digits (40 times one month's rent). Or you have to go ghetto and move into the projects or weflare housing. Its not a sustainable existence for Middle Class people. As for rich people, they will always maintain houses in the suburbs and/or rural areas, so even if they have a place in the city they don't live there exclusively.
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Old 07-21-2013, 07:07 AM
 
3,333 posts, read 3,301,391 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NyWriterdude View Post
People overestimate the importance of immigrants. The real money that sustains NYC is corporate and government. Its all about those sources. Should their be a collapse in NYC's corporate sector, for any reason, or should government funding get butchered, no immigrants will be moving to NYC because NO MONEY=NO JOBS!

And good grief, many immigrants end up in public housing or on various government subsidies. I live around a lot of poor immigrants in the North Bronx, and I've lived around a lot of poor immigrants in Central Queens. Many of the immigrants in Central Queens got involved in Roosevelt Avenue prostitution and drug dealing.
If the NYC corporate sector collapses, it is simply because the US corporate sector is collapsing. Why would that happen exactly?

Immigrants move to NYC because they're a much grater support system here. Where will they move to? Nebraska?
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Old 07-21-2013, 07:09 AM
 
6,926 posts, read 9,075,933 times
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Most of northern and central Queens has remained solidly wealthy and middle class for generations. Unlike brownstone Brooklyn, Queens did not experience a major dip in affluence for the past 100+ years. Hence there was nothing to gentrify as homes in Bayside Gables and Forest Hills Gardens held their values at the higher end of the range.
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