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I like your weatherman analogy. I check the little weather app everyday and will always try to remember to bring an umbrella if it predicts rain or thunderstorm. I know it can be way off on some days but it does not hurt to be prepared. Same goes with the "insights" from Street experts on the economy and market outlook.
if you have been involved with the markets for enough cycles you know to turn of the noise.
it is never what we all see and know that influences things , it is the stuff not evn on the radar yet.
if i listened to all these talking heads that predict i can tell you i would not be retiring next year because i couldn't afford to following their predictions.
just have a good plan that allows for uncertainty rather than then rule it out and you will be fine.
like thy say if you are going to predict then predict often as even a broken watch is right 2x a day.
In the end the strength of the winds (such as this very bad news from Wall St) are less important than the integrity, or lack thereof, of the city's economy.
That the deficit stands as it does, even with record (and I believe peak) revenues, is a big deal.
That housing and commercial real estate markets distorted by mischief, arcane zoning regulations, and (in the case of the former) rent stabilization have resulted in twin, unsustainable bubbles is a big deal.
The historically baseless and unserious attitude that "NYC will always be okay", and the denial and inaction it has fostered among people who should know better, is a big deal.
It is not that these things can't play out. Of course one day they can.
But paying attention and worrying about every bit of noise and news that is out there will do nothing for you except depress you and confuse you.
As an investor i have been bombarded in my life time with all the negative things in the world all my life with little either being true, happening or having much effect.
...paying attention and worrying about every bit of noise and news that iis out there will do nothing for you except depress you and confuse you.
As an investor i have been bombarded in my life time with all the negative thing in the world all my life with little either being true, happening or having much effect.
Seriously. After the last financial/credit crisis I started reading every explanatory book out there. I learned that trying to understand from others negative outlooks was no way to spend leisure time.
Thats what more folks need to learn. It is like driving. When things crop up from time to time you learn enough to steer around it, go through it or take a different route.
Thats what more folks need to learn. It is like driving. When things crop up from time to time you learn enough to steer around it, go through it or take a different route.
Wise words in most situations, but the nagging question is this: Is there another route for a debt-ridden place, where real estate is so over-valued that it is almost a comedy, and the number of public employees about to retire and already collecting pensions is staggering?
i lost two jobs in 2008-2009 , found two jobs and that routine has been unbroken now forever.
i really can't react to predictions and outlooks until they are here . like steering a big ship a nudge here a nudge there is all that is usually needed to get back on course.
folks spend to much time with the what if's in life and not enough time on the plan to carry them through uncertainty or even just to get them through life succesfully .
Except this story, is not about what you do personally. It has nothing to do with you . The world doesn't revolve around your lifestyle.
This prediction is more for not only those in the city government (if she's right this would seriously hurt the city financies), and this would also seriously have an effect on real estate prices.
In 2008, when the real estate market collapsed, some half finished projects in NYC had their constructed halted for YEARS before they got the financing to work on them again and finish them.
What's the point? If there's about to be a major jar to the NYC economy, you'd be an idiot to buy now. Real estate has never been higher here, so you may be investing at the top of the market as its about to collapse. Those who put a lot of money in real estate in 2007 LOST HUGE and BIG TIME. Those who invested money in the stock market in 2000, just before the 2001 collapse, lost big time . You want to do your investments when the market is low, and make money from appreciation of your assets. Not buy when things are expensive, and lose a lot of money from an incoming crash.
Now, as for whether's she's right about the numbers, I don't know. But I do know the number of financial jobs in NYC continues to shrink. That job market is tight now, and there are a number of layoffs. There have been articles stating how even Harvard MBA's are moving on to other things, as the job market on Wall Street is not good.
Bloomberg got Cornell to create a tech school in NYC, because Mayor Bloomberg himself thinks its a disaster for the city to depend so much on finance ,and Bloomberg himself saw this SHRINKING. I disagree with Bloomberg on a lot of things, but any good leader, whether in government or in the private sector, needs to be able to predict future trends.
Wise words in most situations, but the nagging question is this: Is there another route for a debt-ridden place, where real estate is so over-valued that it is almost a comedy, and the number of public employees about to retire and already collecting pensions is staggering?
Yes, big losses in the financial sector would lead to lower tax revenues for the city. They'd have to cut spending, lay off civil servants, cut welfare programs even more, etc.
The point is it is just another load of worry dropped into the collection that is already in the bucket.
It carrys no more weight than anything else already in the bucket.
It goes in with all the other what ifs
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