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If you read the article, they cited many of the banks have publically announced tens of thousands of layoffs. So this is no secret knowledge. Also, they've used technology to make some people redundant. No secret knowledge.
There are troubles at banks like JP Morgan Chase and Bank of America, and this stuff is no secret knowledge either.
Banks have moved operations and other divisions out of NYC, to other areas, and again this is no secret knowledge.
You're upset because you're afraid this woman's prediction might damage the markets, and you're upset that she isn't giving you advice on how to deal with these matters. So you have to call her an attention ***** because she pointed out an industry trend in employment which is happening already. I don't know if 100k will be laid off, but I do know a lot of Wall Street layoffs are already happening. And they've all been announced in the news. Even Bloomberg businessweek says Harvard MBAs are not streaming to NYC, because there are far fewer jobs on Wall Street.
And no, an analyst doesn't necessarily have to tell you how to respond towards something you perceive as negative. She's not a financial advisor.
She accurately predicted the poor health of banks before the 2008 meltdown. She was wrong about the timing of the municipal defaults, but some of them are happening now and perhaps there will be even more. She's at least partially right about the current layoffs on Wall Street, we'll see if they become as big as she says.
she called for billions in defaults happening years ago , she was wrong plain and simple.
it is like someone saying markets will fall quite a bit.
things always go up, they go down and companies and municipalities can fail.
that does not mean she calls them anymore correct than you and i given an open ended time frame.
perhaps you and i should get together and throw a few predictions out there. one of them has to eventually be right and we can start our own information service and make big bucks from the sheep looking for someone with soothsayer abilities.
what i always found interesting is when i started seriously investing back in the 1980's we had 55 top market timing newsletters with those with supposed special abilities to see into our future according to hulbert services.
20 years later 3 were still around and with great declines in followers..
other interesting things about the great predictors mark hulbert's tracking found :
:Since 1980, Mark Hulbert has produced the well-respected Hulbert's Financial Digest, which tracks the performance of other newsletters. The results are generally pretty dismal. Hulbert's data says that in any given year, 80% of newsletter writers under-perform the market. Furthermore, the one's that manage to outperform market are not the same from year to year. In other words, just because someone beats the market one year doesn't mean they’ll ever be able to do it again. Hulbert’s data specifically regarding market timing newsletters is worse. His data shows none of the market timing newsletters beat the market. "
dalbar another research group found the same for those who thought they could predict whats coming
"The data from the Dalbar Group, a well-respected investment research firm that analyzes the results of market-timing on an ongoing basis, shows the same results as Hulbert’s. Each year, since 1984, the Dalbar Group’s methodology is to evaluate the preceding 20 year period. For example, in the 20 year period ending in 2003, the average stock market timer lost 3.29%. In the same twenty years, the market itself went up an average 12.98% per year. "
predicting is predicting and no one has the powers of the gods to date to be able to say whats coming next.
Last edited by mathjak107; 08-11-2013 at 05:20 AM..
Companies provide the analyst with savings targets in advance. It is the analysts job to determine whether they are realisticly achievable.
Moving jobs nearshore creates more jobs. Maybe not so much for NY, but it ends up as a net increase for the country.
Again, if you read the article, it does not state reasoning for the 15% decrease in headcount over the next 18 months other than those cuts that were already known. She is assuming that there will be an additional event to come, but you would have to pay her for that advice. Maybe being a media ***** is good marketing, she got nywriterdudes ear.
moving jobs off shore can create more jobs here as well. we would have been not competitive at all in the market place if we continued to try to manufacture our commercial water pumps here in long island. we lost bid after bid to our competitors who were using much cheaper labor .
quite frankly we all would have been un-employed by now.
instead we make the castings off shore and do all our design , engineering ,assembling and testing right here in long island and ohio employing 120 people.
those jobs would have never existed if we didn't move the manufacturing end off shore.
our story has been repeated over and over by businesses in every sector.
Maybe she is not a personal financial advisor, but she is a financial analyst on an industry. Her being transparent in her findings is how she advises.
whatever she uses that is supposed to be transparent has an opaque covering. ha ha
she really is not the issue being discussed as there are hundreds of hers out there. they get all this media attention over statements that are at best open ended and vague and for the most part more damaging to peoples financial health than wise advice if they react...
as you guessed i am very active in the financial world even though i have never ever worked one day in the business. most of the articles and things i do pertain to the myths and mis-information that is out there that hurts people more than helps them particularly in the retirement planning area..
it is pretty scarey that i have never been in the industry yet i was featured in money magazine , fidelity investment magazine and quoted many times in the wall street journal.
of course that does not make me right all the time but if it just opens up peoples eyes to think for themselves than i accomplished my goal whether i was right or wrong..
it is never what we know that gets us in trouble. it is what we think we know that aint so that does.
Last edited by mathjak107; 08-11-2013 at 05:11 AM..
Know how productive I could be here in NY if I had swat teams of people in India and middle-America running all of my routine processes? It gives me the opportunity to actually work on important stuff. I'd be posting on every city data thread at the same time.
If the troubles at banks like JPM and BoA are no secret, then no reason to have to cover it again with another article that does no more than state this attention whores name and endgame prediction (without any reasoning on how these percentages were derived).
i am working on an article for hopeful publication in the wall street journal pertaining to the fact wall street does allocations by age which is just silly and hurt more people than it helped.
telling a 25 year old to go heavy in equities without concern of whether they have the pucker factor for it and having them bail and lose money is not an age thing.
since i am going against the grain of wall streets culture it will be interesting to see if they run it.
i would stand a better chance making some negative prediction and going about it that way.
You mean the age of its workforce? Or how it advises investors of different generations?
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