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with regards to nyc re market, the frenziness seemed to have calmed down a lot in in this winter season. if no new transplants and immigrants flowing into nyc this year, you can safely bet on a 10%correction across the board. the psychological rush seemed to have peaked out, and smart money is taking a break to wait out some financial uncertainties in the global markets.
Rents are noisy. They always been. Long term it's been up-up-up since the early '90s, but individual years will have drops for no particular reason (at least in part because the rent "statistics" are very poorly calculated and not even remotely scientific). Did gentrification end in 2009? Rents dropped a lot more then.
From the early 90s till now, we had the Giuliani era. Bloomberg being the mayor was the continuation of the Giuliani era as he rode his coat tails into power.
De Blasio is a whole different type of mayor from a whole different platform. Its too early to tell, but the market may be taking in this political risk. After all, in 2009 Bloomberg justified his 3 term by claiming that the markets needed to see him as mayor in order to keep things from collapsing.
The fact that the New York Times itself entertains the possibility of long term real estate market in NYC is interesting too, considering the Times usually goes out of its way to pump any and all NYC neighborhoods. This may be a sign of something right there.
Manhattan rents are largely driven by people making btwn $100k and say $400k. What industries, besides tech, have seen job growth and wage growth? Number of jobs on Wall Street is down. Those that are still there are getting paid less.
I've been here ten years and it's the worst condition I've ever seen the city in over that time. It's filthier than ever. Infrastructure (subways, etc) is much more crowded. Homeless as abundant as ever. Just think people are thinking it's not worth it anymore - and even those who want to come, a poor job environment prohibits them from doing so.
Manhattan rents are largely driven by people making btwn $100k and say $400k. What industries, besides tech, have seen job growth and wage growth? Number of jobs on Wall Street is down. Those that are still there are getting paid less.
I've been here ten years and it's the worst condition I've ever seen the city in over that time. It's filthier than ever. Infrastructure (subways, etc) is much more crowded. Homeless as abundant as ever. Just think people are thinking it's not worth it anymore - and even those who want to come, a poor job environment prohibits them from doing so.
I know a number of people who have moved out of the city recently, and that's probably contributing to the decline as well. And even for those who can afford it, who wants to be surrounded by legions of homeless people?
For those who would be interested in moving, a poor job environment plus ridiculously high rents, comparatively high in some of the worst neighborhoods prevent them from doing so. As for Wall Street, according to projections from an analyst who was quoted in marketwatch from 2013 to 2015 the city will lose 15% of its jobs on Wall Street.
Manhattan will always be one of the most desireable places in the world to be as well as to do business.
Rents in manhattan will never decline much. In fact just by proximity many borough areas will hold up as well. Any dip we may see is usually short lived.
If anyone caught the link to the news story i posted about the lease rights we held in nyc and recently sold, the outlook for rents both commercial and residential by those in the business is very very good.
We held the lease rights along with our partner bernard spitzer for a bunch of commercial spaces in the 200 central park south building.
Mind you we owned lease rights to collect rents from the commercial spaces not the properties.
With 20 years left on those rights and then they expire an investor group bought them from us 3 weeks ago for 18 million bucks.
That vote of confidence in the nyc market is very powerful.
To me a purchase like that speaks volumes about the state of things and the future outlook of our city when everything known about the economy and the world is factored in.
To be honest if it wasn't for the fact that our partner who was the majority share holder wanted to start to wind things down i would have never sold.
Wall St. Has been overstaffed anyway since the recession. Those 15% job cuts were jobs that should have been eliminated back in 2009 had the financial companies not been bailed out.
Manhattan will always be one of the most desireable places in the world to be as well as to do business.
Rents in manhattan will never decline much. In fact just by proximity many borough areas will hold up as well. Any dip we may see is usually short lived.
If anyone caught the link to the news story i posted about the lease rights we held in nyc and recently sold, the outlook for rents both commercial and residential by those in the business is very very good.
We held the lease rights along with our partner bernard spitzer for a bunch of commercial spaces in the 200 central park south building.
Mind you we owned lease rights to collect rents from the commercial spaces not the properties.
With 20 years left on those rights and then they expire an investor group bought them from us 3 weeks ago for 18 million bucks.
That vote of confidence in the nyc market is very powerful.
We don't know that. Rents in much of Manhattan did decline in the 70s, and were comparatively till the early 90s.
There is substantial political risk. De Blasio settled out of court on stop and frisk. How do the real estate markets feel about this?
There's economic risk in the form of the decline of Wall Street jobs.
Just because Manhattan is a great location to do business does not mean that alone can hold up all the rentals in Manhattan or in areas near Manhattan. People who come to Manhattan for businesses often stay in hotels, or they may own property in the city. That's a pretty different issue from those who rent in the city.
We actually need data on the income of people that these expensive apartments are being pitched too.
The Times article mentions that current vacancies are only going to get worse as some of the new buildings are finished.
Saying that rents in NYC can't go down long term is silly. Of course they can. Whether they will is another question, but ANYTHING is possible. If NYC ever got hit by a hurricane as strong as Katrina, rents would be down in the city for many years as it would take a long time to rebuild after all that damage. If Wall Street shrank enough in terms of local employment that would also cause considerable damage.
I said we sure could take a dip we already have quite a few times but for landlords and investors real estate is not a short term hold.
I bought my first rental 2 weeks before the market crash in 1987. I watched rents and values drop. But today if i didn't tell that story so much i would have forgot it happened.
Like any markets they have higher highs and higher lows. But overall for 146 years now which is all we tracked markets of all kinds have only gone up.
While can all come up with loads of what if scenerios the fact is for whatever reason they just do not playout.
There is always something not even on the radar yet that reverses directions and makes the obvious not play out.
There are landlords on this thread who post all kinds of false claims about markets in NYC never going down in centuries.
But the primary problem is that they are landlords and there is FEAR among them. What if due to the economy, politics, or other reasons the markets went down in NYC as far as real estate goes? These people would be hurt severely. Therefore they do not want to entertain the possibility of a real estate downturn, and nothing any economist or any other legitimate source (including more rational people in the real estate industry) can say to sway them.
The current bottom line is that rents are down in Manhattan. We don't know yet for how long, or how severe this will become. But if you had listened to the landlords on this forum early in 2013, at least some of them would have declared even this current dip to be totally impossible.
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