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Old 05-21-2015, 03:05 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 85dumbo View Post
Again, I'm not market timer/predictor, but it was pretty obvious to a non financial guru like myself when the market crashed in 2008, it was time to buy. I do this with my play money. With my retirement funds I'm a pretty conservative buy and hold type guy- I did not touch it when the market crashed because I knew I had 30+ more years for it to grow.


at some point buying was good to do but that isn't typically what folks end up doing . when there is a fire folks run for the exit .

here is the problem with trying to save ENOUGH cash to buy low and make it worthwhile .

the fact is it takes a nervous nellie type of person to pull money off the table when things are going higher.

but to buy in when the word equities makes you want to vomit takes nerves of steel .

two very opposite traits and few can do both.

while many of us added money in the down turn , if you already had sizable assets invested then the new money was like peeing in the ocean.

to really benefit in that case takes a sizable commitment to take money off the table and then get it back in when we are going to hell in a hand basket.


not something i can do so i always stick to the plan regardless of what is going on with the ups and downs. usually just re balancing lets you take advantage of the drops without tryng to time things..

Last edited by mathjak107; 05-21-2015 at 03:21 AM..
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Old 05-21-2015, 03:15 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Forest_Hills_Daddy View Post
In that case does it mean it would not be a good idea at this point to rebalance a portion of a portfolio away from stocks and into bonds if the likelihood is that interest rates will still remain low for a longer period?
the disconnect between the feds move with short term rates and bond rates is interesting.

over the last 40 years, we have seen a dramatic cyclical decline in interest rates. Yet, there were almost as many years when the federal funds rate increased as there were years of decline. Yet, we only had one year (from 1973 through 2014) when the intermediate bond index produced negative returns.

looking at all the time frames since 1980 when the fed raised rates more than 1% look at how bonds actually didn't follow along .

the left is the amount the short term rates were raised and the right is what bonds returned.

only 1994 did bonds respond with a loss.

but now we are doing the opposite , short term rates have stayed put so far but bond rates are rising hurting bond holders. so far this year cd's have had better returns than bonds did.


my fidelity total bond fund and fidelity corporate bond fund are both just about at zero ytd including interest. not good at all considering rates are more likely to rise than fall even if the fed stalls short term rate moves..

so i am getting ready to move to more suitable bond fund types if i turn negative.


here is the chart showing fed raising short term rates by 1% or more vs what intermediate term bonds did the year of the move.


Last edited by mathjak107; 05-21-2015 at 03:37 AM..
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Old 05-21-2015, 03:40 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 85dumbo View Post
I am actually looking foward to correction, as I have a bunch of cash ready to go an equities buying spree.

Although I complain about Wallstreet, there really is no where else to put your money besides nyc RE (despite that its highly illiquid).

I made a pretty penny when the market crashed in 2008, and bought low, looking foward to do it again.
we sold two investment co-ops in nyc by central park in 2009 and they went for only 10% less than the previous highs. not bad considering the trauma in all the markets .

it did take many months to close though as bank after bank reneged on coming across with the buyers financing because they did not have money to loan.
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Old 05-21-2015, 04:14 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
my fidelity total bond fund and fidelity corporate bond fund are both just about at zero ytd including interest. not good at all considering rates are more likely to rise than fall even if the fed stalls short term rate moves..
I use the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund which Fidelity offers through the 401K. It's up 4% on both a 1-year and 5-year basis (5% on 10 year basis) which is why I hesitate to rebalance from the stock index fund to the bond fund just yet - maybe I would be buying when prices are about to go down.

Last edited by Forest_Hills_Daddy; 05-21-2015 at 04:26 AM..
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Old 05-21-2015, 06:42 AM
 
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bonds didn't take the hit until this year. total return ytd including all your interest is .17% on vanguard total BOND. looking back to before rates went up does not provide a current picture of the change in climate .
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Old 05-21-2015, 07:19 AM
bg7
 
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its making the budget easier because of the large amount of city income taxes he's collecting. De Blasio can spend it all on his pet projects - so everyone should be happy
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Old 05-23-2015, 06:29 AM
 
Location: Manhattan
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Wall Street is back and all it took was throwing, what, $8 trillion of borrowed money at the banks gratis. Not to worry though, taxpayers are on the hook for it.
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Old 05-23-2015, 06:38 AM
 
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kefir ,you should know better than to shoot from the hip with no facts.


that is where you are wrong . the tarp money has been repaid and the gov't made huge amounts of money selling their partial owner ships they got as part of the deal.

they made 15.3 billion in profit on that money
.


http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/19/news...-bailouts-end/
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Old 05-23-2015, 11:00 AM
 
Location: Manhattan
20,147 posts, read 26,444,908 times
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mathjac,

I am not referring to TARP money from 2008, but the unending trillions in stimulus SINCE then.

The National debt has grown by 9 TRILLION dollars since the crash and the bailout. This borrowed stimulus is what is fuelling the inflation in the stock markets and the housing market (and the art market, and the meat market.)

Absent that 9 trillion dollar infusion of borrowed cash and the artificial holding of bank borrowing to zero interest, aka free money, the stock market would be dead in the water. TARP's billions is chump change in comparison.

It really is a bubble of such proportions, the like of which we have NEVER seen before. Thing about blowing bubbles, it seems every bubble must be bigger than the one before.

Last edited by Kefir King; 05-23-2015 at 11:09 AM..
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Old 05-23-2015, 11:48 AM
 
Location: Queens, N.Y.
661 posts, read 1,001,143 times
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Big banks to pay $6B for market manipulation | TheHill

Why aren't these banking institutions broken up and the top dogs put in the jail house? That of course is a rhetorical question because we all know the REAL gangsters run the whole system and are basically untouchable so lets keep the focus on hot dog vendors and high school girls fighting in McDonalds, SMH...
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