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Old 05-27-2015, 07:07 AM
 
23,247 posts, read 16,049,776 times
Reputation: 8529

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Quote:
Originally Posted by leoliu View Post
Instead of brining S&F back, America needs to bring back math camps to reverse the steep decline in American's math/probability competence.

To equate the murder rate increase with that of one's chance of being murdered is utterly appalling for ppl with basic understanding of how to calculate probability.

Didn't our nyriterdude have an ivy education? How do you explain the difference between the two?

It is time to take math education seriously and do not let kids off the hook just because they say "I don't like math"....

Nah. They just need to check you into Bellevue Hospital. Or you can check yourself in.

Your comments and this entire post is completely out of left field and has nothing to do with the OP.

I am not a math major and I went no further they basic calculus. I didn't need to. I am not interested nor will I ever study statistics.
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Old 05-27-2015, 07:19 AM
 
Location: Ridgewood, NY
3,039 posts, read 5,731,308 times
Reputation: 1566
Quote:
Originally Posted by antinimby View Post
For this city, the only mathematical formula that applies is this:

M = 1/C

where M represents the murder rate and C is the cost of living.

Figure that out first and then get back to me.
Not that hard to figure out... Don't know if I necessarily agree with it though... That can be the case but as we're seeing with the slight increase in shootings and homicides this year, it could also have a negative effect where you get push back. For what the average salary is in New York, cost of living is WAY higher than it should be... People continue to accept pathetic living conditions to live in an overcrowded expensive city divided between rich and poor...
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Old 05-27-2015, 07:34 AM
bg7
 
7,698 posts, read 7,627,262 times
Reputation: 14991
Quote:
Originally Posted by l1995 View Post
That's nonsense...stop and frisk was drastically scaled back in by 2013 and murders steeply declined to only 333...then stop and frisk was completely eliminated the next year and murders still declined

Unless you are being deliberately obtuse...Its a lag effect, and even five minutes considering human behavior would illuminate this to you.

Stop and frisk was deemed unacceptable - it affected way too many innocents - ok fair enough. But its effect on gun crime and shootings was real, despite the tortuous logic used to deny it.

Stop and frisk changes never would be expected to have an immediate effect on gun-carrying behavior. The guy carrying the gun isn't reading the NYTimes to check up on the current stop and frisk stats and policies. He's on the street. It takes a good amount of time to start realizing that carrying a gun is a liability when stop and frisks were increasing and then maintained at a high level. Gun-carrying behavior changed, slowly because its a human behavioral effect. Guns were stashed, started to be kept elsewhere and not on the person. That had an effect on hot-headed shootings - they declined because by the time the guy went and got the gun, things could have receded (not always of course). Then stop and frisk declined and ended. It was hitting way too many people, and was deemed unacceptable by the communities it occurred in. But the guy who has learnt to not carry the gun doesn't just start carrying it again because he's read that in the paper the stop n frisk is down.... He's seeing what happens to him, where it is in his neighborhood, whats happening to others he hears about. It takes time for the behavior on the street to change, for the gang member to get with the feeling that he's now not likely to be stopped, and that carrying the gun has become less of a liability again. Gun-carrying is undoubtedly up, and dumbass hot-headed shootings are too. Agenda-bearing sociology professors in the press notwithstanding.

The question is how to address this without the too-broad-a-brush of stop n frisk. People being up in arms about a large percentwise but small absolute increase is a good thing, because it really is the squeaky wheel that gets the grease.
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Old 05-27-2015, 07:53 AM
 
23,247 posts, read 16,049,776 times
Reputation: 8529
Quote:
Originally Posted by bg7 View Post
Unless you are being deliberately obtuse...Its a lag effect, and even five minutes considering human behavior would illuminate this to you.

Stop and frisk was deemed unacceptable - it affected way too many innocents - ok fair enough. But its effect on gun crime and shootings was real, despite the tortuous logic used to deny it.

Stop and frisk changes never would be expected to have an immediate effect on gun-carrying behavior. The guy carrying the gun isn't reading the NYTimes to check up on the current stop and frisk stats and policies. He's on the street. It takes a good amount of time to start realizing that carrying a gun is a liability when stop and frisks were increasing and then maintained at a high level. Gun-carrying behavior changed, slowly because its a human behavioral effect. Guns were stashed, started to be kept elsewhere and not on the person. That had an effect on hot-headed shootings - they declined because by the time the guy went and got the gun, things could have receded (not always of course). Then stop and frisk declined and ended. It was hitting way too many people, and was deemed unacceptable by the communities it occurred in. But the guy who has learnt to not carry the gun doesn't just start carrying it again because he's read that in the paper the stop n frisk is down.... He's seeing what happens to him, where it is in his neighborhood, whats happening to others he hears about. It takes time for the behavior on the street to change, for the gang member to get with the feeling that he's now not likely to be stopped, and that carrying the gun has become less of a liability again. Gun-carrying is undoubtedly up, and dumbass hot-headed shootings are too. Agenda-bearing sociology professors in the press notwithstanding.

The question is how to address this without the too-broad-a-brush of stop n frisk. People being up in arms about a large percentwise but small absolute increase is a good thing, because it really is the squeaky wheel that gets the grease.
Stop and Frisk did not end, nor did the federal court order it to end.

However in order to stop and frisk someone you have to have actual cause? See someone running away from a bank that has been broken into? They can be stopped and frisk. See someone with a crowbar outside a closed store? They can be stopped and frisked. In short the cops can stop and frisk someone if they catch them committing a crime or if have already committed a crime.
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Old 05-27-2015, 07:54 AM
 
23,247 posts, read 16,049,776 times
Reputation: 8529
Quote:
Originally Posted by anon1 View Post
Not that hard to figure out... Don't know if I necessarily agree with it though... That can be the case but as we're seeing with the slight increase in shootings and homicides this year, it could also have a negative effect where you get push back. For what the average salary is in New York, cost of living is WAY higher than it should be... People continue to accept pathetic living conditions to live in an overcrowded expensive city divided between rich and poor...
That's supply and demand. All these people from all around the world want to live in NYC and that bids up the prices.

But even if you're poor in NYC you do have a lot. Close to hospitals, good public transportation, can walk to stores, etc. There are clear and real reasons why people want to live in an overcrowded city regardless of whether they are rich or poor.
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Old 05-27-2015, 07:59 AM
 
147 posts, read 135,654 times
Reputation: 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by NyWriterdude View Post
Stop and Frisk did not end, nor did the federal court order it to end.

However in order to stop and frisk someone you have to have actual cause? See someone running away from a bank that has been broken into? They can be stopped and frisk. See someone with a crowbar outside a closed store? They can be stopped and frisked. In short the cops can stop and frisk someone if they catch them committing a crime or if have already committed a crime.
How is it having a crow bar outside of a closed store warrant stop and frisk, because something doesn't look right? Its like a Brother loitering in a Jewish neighborhood does that warrant stop and frisk?
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Old 05-27-2015, 08:51 AM
 
23,247 posts, read 16,049,776 times
Reputation: 8529
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdy00 View Post
How is it having a crow bar outside of a closed store warrant stop and frisk, because something doesn't look right? Its like a Brother loitering in a Jewish neighborhood does that warrant stop and frisk?
A crow bar outside a closed store means you are likely trying to break in. A black person in a Jewish neighborhood implies nothing. I lived in a Jewish neighborhood.
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Old 05-27-2015, 09:02 AM
 
202 posts, read 168,980 times
Reputation: 176
Quote:
Originally Posted by NyWriterdude View Post
A crow bar outside a closed store means you are likely trying to break in. A black person in a Jewish neighborhood implies nothing. I lived in a Jewish neighborhood.
Wow, big surprise.
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Old 05-27-2015, 09:13 AM
 
Location: Ridgewood, NY
3,039 posts, read 5,731,308 times
Reputation: 1566
Quote:
Originally Posted by bg7 View Post
Unless you are being deliberately obtuse...Its a lag effect, and even five minutes considering human behavior would illuminate this to you.

Stop and frisk was deemed unacceptable - it affected way too many innocents - ok fair enough. But its effect on gun crime and shootings was real, despite the tortuous logic used to deny it.

Stop and frisk changes never would be expected to have an immediate effect on gun-carrying behavior. The guy carrying the gun isn't reading the NYTimes to check up on the current stop and frisk stats and policies. He's on the street. It takes a good amount of time to start realizing that carrying a gun is a liability when stop and frisks were increasing and then maintained at a high level. Gun-carrying behavior changed, slowly because its a human behavioral effect. Guns were stashed, started to be kept elsewhere and not on the person. That had an effect on hot-headed shootings - they declined because by the time the guy went and got the gun, things could have receded (not always of course). Then stop and frisk declined and ended. It was hitting way too many people, and was deemed unacceptable by the communities it occurred in. But the guy who has learnt to not carry the gun doesn't just start carrying it again because he's read that in the paper the stop n frisk is down.... He's seeing what happens to him, where it is in his neighborhood, whats happening to others he hears about. It takes time for the behavior on the street to change, for the gang member to get with the feeling that he's now not likely to be stopped, and that carrying the gun has become less of a liability again. Gun-carrying is undoubtedly up, and dumbass hot-headed shootings are too. Agenda-bearing sociology professors in the press notwithstanding.

The question is how to address this without the too-broad-a-brush of stop n frisk. People being up in arms about a large percentwise but small absolute increase is a good thing, because it really is the squeaky wheel that gets the grease.
Up compared to what? Lowest recorded levels in history? And how much are they up? In Manhattan didn't the number go from 11 to 16 homicides this year for a population of almost 2 million... Not exactly Caracas... The original purpose of stop and frisk was solid but towards the end it became a distorted way to effectively harass every Black and Hispanic youth and to a certain extent adults as well. And the numbers overwhelmingly showed that 9 times out of 10 S&F wasn't resulting in anything... People who don't have to deal with it, have no idea what it's like to be stopped on a weekly basis just because you fit a profile... And anyone who pretends to understand this, believe me, you can't. It's humiliating, frustrating, and unfortunately for the longest time, completely legal. Stop and Frisk is no longer the answer. Impact zones have proven to be much more effective in the long run... We have the lowest crime rate in the entire country, we must be doing something right...
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Old 05-27-2015, 09:49 AM
 
23,247 posts, read 16,049,776 times
Reputation: 8529
Quote:
Originally Posted by anon1 View Post
Up compared to what? Lowest recorded levels in history? And how much are they up? In Manhattan didn't the number go from 11 to 16 homicides this year for a population of almost 2 million... Not exactly Caracas... The original purpose of stop and frisk was solid but towards the end it became a distorted way to effectively harass every Black and Hispanic youth and to a certain extent adults as well. And the numbers overwhelmingly showed that 9 times out of 10 S&F wasn't resulting in anything... People who don't have to deal with it, have no idea what it's like to be stopped on a weekly basis just because you fit a profile... And anyone who pretends to understand this, believe me, you can't. It's humiliating, frustrating, and unfortunately for the longest time, completely legal. Stop and Frisk is no longer the answer. Impact zones have proven to be much more effective in the long run... We have the lowest crime rate in the entire country, we must be doing something right...
Repped. The crime rate went down for a lot of reasons.

Social services and medicine offer more mental health and addiction services. That helps. ACS will do court order intervention in cases of child abuse (abused children are a lot more likely to grow up as criminals). More birth control and abortion help.

NYC's economy has improved. Empty industrial neighborhoods are now full of office buildings and residential buildings. Corporate investment in the form of money is needed to take busted up dumps and make them places you want to live (LIC, Williamsburg, West side of Manhattan, Lower East Side). More money coming in leads to more employment of poor people and therefore you expand the working class and REDUCE the welfare or unemployed class. That brings down crime.

Of course policing was A FACTOR, but it was far from the SOLE factor.
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