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His comment was aimed at how the OP titled the thread. A 45% increase in murders does not mean you are 45% more likely to be murdered. Simple as that.
Okay, of course. But the OP's statements have nothing to do with math education or lack of. It is politically motivated propaganda posted by a right wing troll.
Assuming murder rate follows a poisson distribution, and the murder rate was unchanged from last year (11 murders in this time period in Manhattan), there's a 5.6% chance there would be at least 16 murders by chance alone. Of course, the number of murders last year in Manhattan in Jan to mid May may have been lower than usual by random chance as well, so 11 is a bad assumption.
Thats not a huge jump in murder. But stop and frisk isn't necessary to stop crime. I've notice a huge change in the attitude of the cops by me. These kids were chasing this boy and the 2 cops (assuming rookies walking by foot) just turned around to go in the other direction. I was standing in front my building the other day when this cop pulling someone over about a foot away from me. Guy had no licenses the cop told him "i don't feel like doing any paper work right now" and let him go. I see cops walk by people smoking weed or having open bottles. I am not for the criminalization of marijuana but I am definitely used to a cop saying something. I just seems so strange. However, I don't think NYC is more crime ridden and I do not blame deblasio. Its just an observation I noticed.
That is such an insanely low number for the entire borough it's ridiculous... For years pretty much up until the mid 90s, the upper Manhattan precincts alone used to record around 500 homicides annually. And now, we're almost midway through the year, and 16 homicides within 22 precincts total sends shivers down peoples spines. Man, when did we become such punks... Not saying that a 45% increase isn't cause for concern, but when we're dealing with historically low levels, percentage increases are bound to fluctuate... Again, not defending DeBlasio but the Post in this case clearly has an agenda...
Disgusting. So let's have more crime so your rent can go down?
I knew there would be someone out there ignorant enough to interpret it like that.
So let me explain and dispell the ignorance...
What that formula says is that there is an inverse relationship between an area's cost of living and the number of murders (and really you can say, overall crime rates in general). Rising cost of living tends to drive (and keep) out the demographics that are likely to contribute to crime, and vice versa.
What that means is that unless cost of living drops precipitously in the city, skyrocketing murder numbers like what was seen back in the bad old days of the 70's to 90's are not likely to happen despite the alarmists among us seem to think.
It has nothing to do with what I want or wanting my rent to go down. That's just silly.
Thats not a huge jump in murder. But stop and frisk isn't necessary to stop crime. I've notice a huge change in the attitude of the cops by me. These kids were chasing this boy and the 2 cops (assuming rookies walking by foot) just turned around to go in the other direction. I was standing in front my building the other day when this cop pulling someone over about a foot away from me. Guy had no licenses the cop told him "i don't feel like doing any paper work right now" and let him go. I see cops walk by people smoking weed or having open bottles. I am not for the criminalization of marijuana but I am definitely used to a cop saying something. I just seems so strange. However, I don't think NYC is more crime ridden and I do not blame deblasio. Its just an observation I noticed.
First Baltimore, then Chicago, and now more great news out of NYC! I love it!!!
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