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Old 12-21-2016, 02:20 PM
 
4,176 posts, read 5,301,246 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BugsyPal View Post
Rent be to darn high!


Census: NY lost more people than gained this year as of July - Capitol Confidential


NY's population falls for first time in a decade=


But seriously folks, New York State has been a basket case for decades, especially upstate.


Upstate NY began to decline as manufacturing, military and other large employers began pulling out. It says something when the largest employer in many upstate counties are prisons, which by the way often are holding people from downstate.


Climate in upstate NY is horrible for about half the year (cold to freezing, and can you say *snow*?).


New York State in general has one of if not the highest tax burdens on many levels in the country. Property, income, business, you name it and NY is in the top five in terms of high taxes. On top of taxes NY piles on various fees and surcharges upon almost anything that breathes, moves or whatever. Look at your utility and or property bills to see how often you pay the MTA.


New York is a WELFARE state, as such it cannot bring down taxes because it needs that revenue to fund the vast and extensive "safety/social" net of services or whatever that are near and dear not just to liberal/democrats but republicans in this state as well.


As boomers and their parents age people are looking to retire someplace with lower COL and taxes, but also with better quality of life including climate.


New York City while still generating jobs more and more that is coming from service/hospitality/retail and other such sectors. Even when you look at healthcare employment numbers the growth is largely in various techs/assistants than the higher paying professions such as medicine and nursing.


The middle class is fleeing and or being pushed out of NYC by high COL and taxes with what they see as very little return for their money. Public schools and other services still largely stink or at least vary by where you live. What they do see is an ever increasing number of poor (including immigrants both legal and otherwise) being well provided for by the city and state with their tax dollars.
I left NYC after a year and am not planning to return anytime soon.

NYS has the reverse midas touch. For every category where you want to be at the top of the list of the 50 states (property rights; freedom; gun rights; business climate), NYS was at the bottom. For every category where you want to be at the bottom of the list of the 50 states (tax burden; health insurance premiums; malpractice premiums; unionization rate of public sector), NYS was at the top. The state is doing nothing right and everything wrong. The only reason NYC is doing relatively well is that it's a major global center for commerce (as it has been for 100+ years), so many businesses have incentive to have operations there regardless of business climate. NYC is not doing well b/c of the awful business climate; it's doing well in spite of it.

At least in NYC, the claim that higher taxes provide more/better services is another canard. The only solution is ever-increasing taxes.
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Old 12-21-2016, 02:29 PM
 
23,247 posts, read 16,049,776 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NYer23 View Post
If you take a look at the latest comptroller report you would see NYC is increasing tax revenue from property tax due to real estate value appreciating and sale/use tax (increase in mortgage financing activity from real estate transactions and tourist visiting NYC). In addition, I would venture to say that due to globalization and technology advancements more people than ever before are going to be owning property in NYC who only plan to visit for short period of time throughout the year (it will most likely not show up in the statistic of migration/population movement). NYC will become more transient than it already is, with no real community feel.
Except you neglect to consider rents are dropping in NYC. That alone could affect property values, along with the state losing more people than it's gaining. Trump has said he will spend a 1 trillion on infrastructure, among other changes. The fed would raise interest rates in RESPONSE.

This smells like another BUBBLE.
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Old 12-21-2016, 02:43 PM
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11,386 posts, read 9,848,968 times
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Isn't the OP leaving?
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Old 12-21-2016, 02:44 PM
 
490 posts, read 606,230 times
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He sure seems to be latching on to this declining rent thing. The decline was mostly caused by these huge 1,000+ unit buildings opening in Brooklyn, LIC and the West Side. It will take time to fill these buildings and if anything, cooling rents + more available units prevents people from being forced out of the state.
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Old 12-21-2016, 02:50 PM
 
Location: Downtown & Brooklyn!
1,951 posts, read 1,065,111 times
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I really hope the rents do drop. This is the first that I'm hearing of this
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Old 12-21-2016, 02:58 PM
 
Location: New York, NY
1,694 posts, read 1,071,855 times
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The Dude abides...
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Old 12-21-2016, 03:03 PM
 
18,241 posts, read 11,645,412 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by That_One_Guy View Post
I really hope the rents do drop. This is the first that I'm hearing of this


Read the numerous articles posted here and elsewhere.


The words "rent declines" and or "drops" are relative. Landlords are offering more concessions that bring the relative actual cost of a rental down (one or two months free rent for instance), but as far as lowering the true monthly rent, there things do vary.


Landlords for obvious reasons are reluctant to lower the official asking rent because it can make it difficult later to raise it up again. A tenant may balk at seeing his rent go from $2800 to $3900 or whatever. And since we are talking about market rate those tenants often have options to exercise, and do. That is they will pack up and move. The LL can *try* to get a new tenant to pay the $3900, but if or when word gets out previous rent was lower, good luck with that.
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Old 12-21-2016, 03:18 PM
 
Location: Beautiful Pelham Parkway,The Bronx
8,389 posts, read 19,619,570 times
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Don't get too excited folks. NYC has not lost population. It has gained population yet again this year and is at an all time high:

NYC's Population Tops 8.5 Million for First Time, New Census Figures Show

"It's the first time in history that more than 8.5 million people have called the city home.The city's population has been on the upswing for some time. With the new numbers released Thursday, the city has grown by more than 375,000 people in just the last five years, an increase of 4.5% -- or more than the entire population of Pittsburgh."


As for NY State, the population has been steadily declining for decades so nothing new there.
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Old 12-21-2016, 03:27 PM
 
Location: Beautiful Pelham Parkway,The Bronx
8,389 posts, read 19,619,570 times
Reputation: 6215
Quote:
Originally Posted by That_One_Guy View Post
I really hope the rents do drop. This is the first that I'm hearing of this
Don't count on it. You haven't heard it because it's not true and the thread is misleading.

NYC rents fluctuate up and down all the time with a more or less constant upward trend. Sort of the same as the crime rate only in the opposite direction.
The crime rate fluctuates up and down with a more or less constant downward trend. It is idiotic to take a sample or survey within a short period of time and jump to conclusions about the long term.

Check back in a year about the population and rents. My guess is they'll both continue upward unless we have a Tump recession the economy tanks big time.

Last edited by bluedog2; 12-21-2016 at 03:36 PM..
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Old 12-21-2016, 03:31 PM
 
1,975 posts, read 1,234,875 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NyWriterdude View Post
Except you neglect to consider rents are dropping in NYC. That alone could affect property values, along with the state losing more people than it's gaining. Trump has said he will spend a 1 trillion on infrastructure, among other changes. The fed would raise interest rates in RESPONSE.

This smells like another BUBBLE.
It difficult to measure the significance of the decline in rent prices when it driven by increase supply in luxury rental market being as it such a niche market. I don't think the price floor for walk up apartments is going to decrease any time soon. Capital inflow of real estate transaction and tourist spending is going to outweigh what small amount of decline in rent prices at the top of the market.

Quote:
2. Landlords will continue offering deals.

The rental market will remain “soft” into spring, Ehrlich said, with inventory increasing as new projects open.

“Smart renters will negotiate with current management companies to limit or block increases and in some cases may even be able to get concessions on existing apartments if they speak up,” he advised.

The incentives, however, are largely in the new developments, said BOND New York’s Douglas Wagner, giving some renters a misconception about how widely available deals are.

“We’re seeing people coming in for lower-priced apartments thinking they’ll get a deal,” he said. “If you’re spending $4,200 a month you can get a free month, but not necessarily if you’re spending $2,400.”
17 Predictions for NYC's Residential Real Estate in 2017
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